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The Forum > Article Comments > Leap of faith on the National Electricity Market required > Comments

Leap of faith on the National Electricity Market required : Comments

By Mark Christensen, published 20/2/2017

While the chaos has political meddling written all over it, its roots are actually technical. That is, the NEM was not designed to be a vehicle for appeasing our environmental conscience.

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Battery backed solar is a threat to the grid the way a mouse is a threat to an elephant. Australia burns through a gigawatt hour of electricity every two minutes or so. It will take millions of Powerwall sized batteries to store meaningful amounts of electricity. Rooftop solar installation peaked in 2012 so batteries need to repeat and exceed that boom.

In theory if the price is right the market should balance. Why didn't we have these problems 20 years ago? The key difference is that certain generators get subsidies ($85/Mwh) and guaranteed market share (11% in 2017 I believe) forcing other generators to accept bridesmaid status. Take that away and the problems may largely go away. If you believe as I do we must reduce emissions then the correct policy should be based on that, not playing technology favourites.
Posted by Taswegian, Monday, 20 February 2017 8:29:13 AM
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As a journalist I attempted to contact the NEM a couple of times. they don't say much. Their job is to get on with the task of trying to make green energy fit on the grid, rather than pointing out to politicians how idiotic the policy is within existing management and network structures. Part of this is because if they dared to say that we need a complete makeover of the grid and different approach to get to 30 per cent renewables and that 40 per cent plus may be a pipedream, they would be crucified by the green lobby.

But it is typical of the green energy debate in this country that, as far as I know, no-one has asked the grid operators what is required to get these high penetration of wind. The RET policy was amped up by the Rudd government (it was a Howard government initiative, but the original target was small) because governments overseas had done something similar and it sounded good. No one in government or even the opposition at the time thought about the problems of putting intermittent energy on a 24 hour grid, because no-one outside grid operators knew and no-one bothered to ask those guys.

The RET is an example of how not to do policy.
Posted by curmudgeonathome, Monday, 20 February 2017 9:18:33 AM
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Taswegian,

We didn't have these problems 20 years ago because back then the owners (the government) had no reason to force up the cost of electricity.

We did have those problems 16 years ago, at least in SA.
Posted by Aidan, Monday, 20 February 2017 9:27:56 AM
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From the article, "....large-scale electricity supply is under siege from battery-backed solar PV."

Why are we heavily subsidizing a non-solution to CAGW? Let RE find its own way home, AND nuclear, with a carbon price in place.

The recycling of solar panels and windmills should be built in to costs, together with decommissioning of nuclear plant. Re the latter, something more sensible than breaking plant up into bits, wrapping it and burying it should be possible with a sensible outlook towards radiation. Once used fuel rods are removed the structure is not a threat and should be allowed to remain standing or be refurbished after its working life of many decades.
Posted by Luciferase, Monday, 20 February 2017 10:31:25 AM
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Tas, Curmud, both seem to make sound common sense, so does Adian when he's not too busy sniping at non green opposition? Or overstating risible rubbish? Like hydrogen being denser than thorium?

Simply put when all the anti-nuclear lobby stop jumping up and down screaming abuse all while fingers stuffed in ears prevents any and all information and updates from even faintly filtering through?

And taken straight from the handbook of an abuse screaming scientologist?

Hydrogen will likely play a part in our future, but only when the energy we produce is clean enough, safe enough and cheap enough to make hydrogen part of a viable energy mix for the future.

We might use solar thermal but only if molten salt technology combined with economies of scale, make both viable and affordable?

Hydrogen production relying on heat and catalytically assisted decomposition to make it vastly more affordable as an endlessly sustainable liquid transport fuel, and likely used in hybrids that include battery storage and fuel cells? And as such more than compete with conventional transport on range, grunt or mind numbing F1 acceleration!

And more or less leaving battery power for the commute?

We hear endless talk about storage and doable as stored hydrogen made, if you will, while the sun shines or when gormless anti nuclear advocates like Adian, take a new look with fresh eyes at thorium!

And significantly harder than herding cats!

As is getting government to once again shoulder its traditional core responsibility for the provision of essential services! As opposed to simply outsourcing everything!
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Monday, 20 February 2017 10:50:23 AM
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Well, there's the nub of the problem? What used to be a reticulated essential service, became a cash cow captive gold plated price gouged (leap of faith, over the cliff, minus the parachute) market!

And linked to a highly vulnerable national distribution system that includes quite massive distribution losses. Losses that someone still has to pay for! And you guessed it, those mugs out there in mugsville!

It's time to restore what we once had, before the inmates took charge of the asylum, created an expensive white elephant called euphemistically, the national grid.

A grid designed by the market to serve the market, all while eliminating fair dinkum national competition. We need to remove the imposed blocks on nuclear technology, all while insisting, anything we do adopt has no bomb making capacity nor bomb making materials capacity, then unleash the market to compete for market share!

Even if that requires the progressive roll back of the poles and wires/transmission lines in favour of very localised power, which would be a first good start at halving the price of power and resuscitating manufacture.

Overhead power lines for trains and trams, i.e., could be made far safer and infinitely more durable as buried magnetic interfaces, coupled to advanced onboard storage (capacitors?) that allow for essential detours or power outages etc?

The problems obviously include government timidity, lack of permission by our non elected political masters, and the rejigging of essential government supplied essential service as highly profitable outsourced cash cow captive markets!

As others have noted, the current raft of problems besetting the industry, are a relatively recent phenomena! Arguably created by asinine idealogues, with a really bad dose of the Sergeant Schultz syndrome and made far more severe, by a terminal case of outsourcing on the brain? What they won't, can't restore? Others can, will!
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Monday, 20 February 2017 11:43:06 AM
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The author has a background in economics.

He also wrote: "Risks do not lie with the party best placed to manage them."

So far, so good.

The author should realise that the electrical power industry was formerly a collection of imperfect engineer-managed monopolies, with all the inevitable accusations, some true, others not, that accrue to monopolies. Top of the list was that the former SECV, ECNSW, ETSA, SEQB and HECT were inefficient, and they probably were. But now we know, through escalating bills, that those inefficiencies were less evil that the profit-taking, risk avoidance and denial of responsibility for outcomes that the current many players have inflicted on us all, large and small. Even BHP is complaining that their needs aren't being met by the current system. Plus miscellaneous smelter proprietors, One Steel and a host of industry associations, many of whom signed an open letter last week seeking reform.

We need to re-think the failed lawyers' and economists' NEM/AER system and return to something that places reliability and capacity above (mainly foreign) shareholder profit and populist, magical green thinking that drives wildly subsidised unreliable generators and spawns political agendas while ignoring their impact on the system as a whole.

Nationalising isn't the answer, but the discussion should still primarily focus on finding something that prioritises reliability and capacity.
Posted by JohnBennetts, Monday, 20 February 2017 12:17:02 PM
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When talking of storage remember the formula;
S = C X (N + 1) Where C = Required plant for one day; S = Installed plant
and N = the number of sequential overcast & still nights.
N being decided by politicians.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 20 February 2017 1:56:30 PM
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The one common factor that has threaded its way through the multiple failures starting with the collapse of bendy foreign-supplied power poles on a windy night in SA to the loss of power along the East Coast is the involvement of greedy pigs in the private sector plundering the power supply to maximise their profits. Australia even needed the sayso of Mr Greed on the far side of the world to be given the nod to switch on a gas fired power plant to keep the lights on.

For the nation to have control of its energy security will require total public ownership of the generation and distribution of electricity. Anything less and expect continued instability and skyrocketing prices.

First chance to stop the rot will be to vote the Barnett-Hanson government out of office on March 11 to halt the plunder of Western Power through sale to private owners.
Posted by EmperorJulian, Monday, 20 February 2017 6:06:20 PM
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The obvious answer to storage that copes immediately with surges and slumps simultaneously and immediately, is catalytically assisted heat decomposed Hydrogen?

And used in industrial grade fuel cell assemblies to provide instant on demand backup or base load power and for days on end!

A private power company has built and operates for profit, an extremely large solar thermal (molten salt) plant in the california desert.

And given economies of scale and the aforementioned (fluoride/thorium) molten salt, competes more than favourably with coal on price (3 cents per kilowatt hour wholesale) or baseload power.

We have desert regions that are good for little else and where the sun shines for 360-1-2 days a year!

So very large scale solar thermal is a viable option that competes with coal, except on fuel costs, where it beats it hands down!

The government can wait until hell freezes over for our international competitors come down here and do it for us, or bite the bullet and roll out cooperative endeavor enterprises they fund and facilitate as competing for market share, 40 hectare solar arrays. Plus hydrogen production facilities.

That together, end the dog's breakfast we call our (foreign controled and operated) National grid.

After all if we can make endless cheap as chips hydrogen, it can't be too hard to pipe it to our homes to power then via fuel cell assemblies. And in a single solution end blackouts, overhead system failures and most distribution losses.

And too big as an idea or concept for our lacklustre waste of space, political establishment/jaw flappers to comprehend, let alone, oversee a can't lose, government funded and facilitated rollout of cooperative enterprises.

As the best bang for our buck and most efficient private enterprise model, minus all the negative gold plating/price gouging in favor of live or die, bona fide commercial competition!

The endless talkfest blameshift/excuse making must end, to be replaced with can do action!
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Monday, 20 February 2017 6:39:49 PM
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EmperorJulian

Ho hum, ignorant marxoid drivel.

If your assumptions are right, why not vest all productive activity in government? According to you, this would be more economical, because profit proves waste, correct?
Posted by Jardine K. Jardine, Monday, 20 February 2017 7:42:08 PM
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JB says, "....the discussion should still primarily focus on finding something that prioritises reliability and capacity."

Agreed, as well as meeting emissions standard that grow more stringent over time. Coal plus CC, nuclear, and RE together with its thermal backup, must meet this standard.

Further, there should be NO subsidies, NO technology off the table, and a carbon price (including on fossil-fuelled backup emissions).

Standards regarding recycling/decommissioning (in the nuclear case based on an enlightened understanding of the health effects of radiation, not the baseless LNT model), should be paid to the State by all generators of electricity, commensurate with the working life of their plant.

As much as the above goes against my desire to immediately cease addition of more main-grid RE and focus on the one true solution to CAGW, the compromise of killing it slowly could begin.
Posted by Luciferase, Monday, 20 February 2017 7:43:21 PM
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Alan B's private enterprise model seems to be for foreign private investors to have our energy security by the throat. Like our armed services, we need to keep the ownership, operation and control of our energy production and supply in the hands of the democratically accountable public sector. Mr Greed has already given us a pig's breakfast at exorbitant cost to the consumer, and tied to "cooperative endeavour enterprises" we can expect more of the same.
Posted by EmperorJulian, Monday, 20 February 2017 7:51:21 PM
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I don't know much money any private company has made out of southern power, at present I'd say sweet stud all, apart from the scam merchants with windmills.

Up here in Queensland it was that lefty "B" Beattie that ripped off consumers, & stuffed the system by draining it of funds.

He was ripping a quarter of a billion dollars a year in "special dividends" out of the government owned system to try to cover his ridiculous spending.

All these lefty governments are the same. Infected with the drunken sailor spending syndrome, & with too many favours to return.
Posted by Hasbeen, Monday, 20 February 2017 7:53:30 PM
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For advice on going the nuclear power route from people who really know what they're talking about we should recruit and fly to Australia a cross-section of the residents of Fukushima. The Japanese taxpayers have been stuck with the tab for Fukushima so, forewarned, we need to require of wannabe suppliers of nuclear power a fully audited statement of how they intend to fund and provide adequate public risk insurance.

Then let's proceed with credible technologies.
Posted by EmperorJulian, Monday, 20 February 2017 8:08:33 PM
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Build that dam in Tasmania. You brick heads.
Posted by doog, Monday, 20 February 2017 9:23:04 PM
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Tanya Eye-Chart made it clear on Q&A that 50% solar & wind is the
firm policy and no CO2 producing station will exist.
No one asked her if she knew how it would be done.
All she spoke about was how cheap solar was becoming and how cheap our electricity bills will be.

Re Fukashima, they built it on the wrong coastline.
The plate divide is close to Japan on the east.

It seems inevitable that the politicians not the engineers will decide
what we do about our electrical problem.
I think we will not get any realism into this problem until we have
a collapse of the system due to loss of control of the grid.
Then we will have to build a fleet of power stations all at once.
Will the money be able to fund it and will the state of the economy
at that time enable us the repay the debt ?
We do not seem to have a solution available to us. We are now in the
situation where we will all have to make our own arrangements.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 20 February 2017 10:07:32 PM
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Hey baz they found out what caused the blackouts in SA. The wind power was putting that much power into the grid that the pylons turned red hot and fell over.
Posted by doog, Tuesday, 21 February 2017 12:45:14 PM
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