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The Forum > Article Comments > Is housing affordability the egg we can’t unscramble? > Comments

Is housing affordability the egg we can’t unscramble? : Comments

By Ross Elliott, published 10/2/2017

Politicians are starting to get the message, but is it all too late? Has the affordability horse bolted, permanently?

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They say robots gonna do a lot of jobs so its cray how theres still mass immigration. Slowing immigration would level prices, that way it'd be easier to start up new farms around the place.
Posted by progressive pat, Friday, 10 February 2017 12:56:52 PM
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No it is not!

Suggest we stop listening to developers and real estate agents with considerable skin and mucho plenty vested interest in the game! And instead focus on what is actually possible?

Which has to include quite massive decentralization. And dependant on getting road block state governments, councils and their landbank friends out of the way.

Then remove all the front end loading, taxes, fees and charges! About 40% of the current cost of current house prices? And replace them with a reasonable and affordable capital gains tax? And more revenue anyhow, from a much bigger real estate market?

Negative gearing must go as well as forgiven capital gains tax, which ought be made retrospective instead!

Then understand we have the money as a two trillion dollar fund in our super to unleash in as safe as houses investments. Then start with the roll out of rapid rail and fibre to the home NBN ASAP.

Do it right the first time and never have to do it again, possibly for twice as much ten years on?

With the missing elements in place, start to release enough land to oversupply demand! Then as they say in the classics, the rest will be history.
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Friday, 10 February 2017 1:01:05 PM
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Mark well – Ross is connected to the Property Council, and the Property Council is interested only in developers, owners, landlords etc – anyone who makes a dollar out of the industry. Homebuyers, renters etc are not an issue for the Council. Ross is probably a nice bloke, who wouldn't hurt a fly, but on this matter, we must treat him and the Property Council as the enemy. I live in a retirement village, and I have just received word from the Minister that the new SA Retirement Villages Act has been passed and will be adopted in 2018. The Property Council will be miffed, because much of what they wanted has been denied them. Residents have gained some ground.

Housing affordability is a big issue for young families and anyone not yet in the market. I do not believe that the Property Council has anything to offer to what is purely a societal matter, better attended to by people without dollar signs in their eyes.
Posted by ttbn, Friday, 10 February 2017 1:50:04 PM
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To make housing more affordable:
1. Increase supply by making much more land available for high rise flats. Charge an improvement tax to ensure community facilities and roads can be improved to match the increased demand.
2. Increase compulsory superannuation payments to reduce demand via negative gearing and provide a better alternative investment strategy.
3. Abolish payroll tax in rural areas to encourage business to shift to the country.
4. Impose inheritance tax on housing to encourage people to avoid / move out of expensive homes geared to capital gains growth, driving down prices.
Posted by DavidR, Friday, 10 February 2017 2:15:13 PM
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Infrastructure is the answer....good quality public housing dispersed through random suburbs and towns, and lots and lots of it.
In fact, flood the market to the point where rents drop significantly.

This will discourage the causes of non-affordability, and will better key into the reality of insecure employment, which also discourages home ownership.
It will remove the distortion from the existing negatively manipulated market, by discouraging investment in housing.

Governments can then manipulate the housing market in the same manner interest rates are manipulated by the reserve bank.
It will give a voice to the powerless renters, and afford an opportunity to them to sway Government thinking at the polls.
Posted by diver dan, Friday, 10 February 2017 2:34:39 PM
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Everyone seems to have overlooked one aspect of housing prices compared to a few decades ago.
The sheer size of houses today!
My generation were satisfied with three basic bedrooms, one bathroom, one lounge area and a kitchen/dining area.
No ensuite, no games rooms, no theatre rooms or studies, no extensive patio areas, not even a carport.
I don't know anyone my age who bought a house that had more than 3 bedrooms, regardless of the size of family you intended. Couples with five or six children all shared the one bathroom. Kids bedrooms had bunk beds to fit all the kids in. Barbecue areas didn't have a covering.
Life may have been a little more crowded and inconvenient but that's what kept it affordable.
Posted by Big Nana, Friday, 10 February 2017 2:58:15 PM
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Big Nana,

The problem with your argument is that (in Sydney or Melbourne at least) regulations driving up the cost of the land that the house sits on accounts for the vast majority of the cost of the house. See for example

http://catallaxyfiles.com/2017/01/23/australian-housings-regulatory-price-boost-not-about-to-end/

"A fully finished new house (three bedrooms, two garages) costs as little as $150,000. Preparation of the land with sewerage, local roads, water and other utilities costs around $70,000 per block. The land itself is mainly used for agriculture and is intrinsically worth maybe $2,000 a block. Yet that new house in western Sydney costs upward of $700,000...

"Some expenses that turn a western Sydney house/land package costing $250,000 into a house that sells at $700,000 are due to taxes. But these are mainly attempts by the government to grab some of the price inflation resulting from the shortage of new blocks that their policies create.

"Our high cost housing position is earned in the regulatory department. In this we are the world champions. The Victorian planning authority has identified over 600 separate approval decisions for a new house in Melbourne. And that excludes the all-important strangulation of the first stage planning permission, the “release” of land to allow it to be built upon."

In other words, you could build a tarpaper shack with an outdoor dunny, assuming that it was allowed, and it would still cost a fortune.
Posted by Divergence, Friday, 10 February 2017 6:28:09 PM
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An interesting article, because Oz politicians borrow heavily from the political debate in the UK,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/12099635/Since-when-did-it-become-a-human-right-to-own-your-home.html
Posted by leoj, Friday, 10 February 2017 6:56:03 PM
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There's definitely a lack of action and
a failure of leadership around affordable housing.

Several groups have been blamed for pushing up
property prices.

1) Investors or "speculators" in the market.
Baby boomers treating their homes as investment
properties. - Treating property as an asset, rather
than a shelter has been a big criticism of our
housing market - with "mum and dad" landlords
being blamed for purchasing entry-level housing
that would otherwise be snapped up by 1st home
buyers.

2) Retirees refusing to "down-size."

3) Banks offering cheap and easy credit.

4) Foreign buyers. Chinese investment in Australian
property has greatly increased and anti-foreign
sentiment is growing.
Posted by Foxy, Saturday, 11 February 2017 10:29:36 AM
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Agree with all of that Foxy, except the notion retirees ought to downsize. Particularly if one finds cell block sized accommodation claustrophobic.

I don't need size just space and the serenity it alone confers!

Other than that, an all purpose bedsit cave and amenable company will do fine. Dogs make such wonderful pets, particularly bitches, don't they?

And in that undemanding package, one gets always congenial company, a burglar and smoke alarm and a pocket rocket, always alert, security device.

Mine always loved a ride in the car to anywhere, but refused to take a turn at the wheel no matter how tired I was. Albeit well versed in the art of backseat driving along with barked instructions and used to bark her head off (pick it up, hike) at statues of horses/cats/other dogs/royal dignitaries.

Eventually I'd only have to point and whisper, look, horse/cow/bull/bird/stranger, to get both ends working at maximum warp, simultaneously.

Except for soldiers standing head bowed, rifle in the port position, then she'd raise a right paw and give a sad little sorrowful whine.

I swear she was almost human. And took after a fearless red kelpie I adopted years earlier, Wouldn't back down or quit, when she sensed the boss was in strife.

With friends like that, we really do need affordable housing With a back paddock or a decent yard!

A recent study by a college Professor showed it was far cheaper to care for the oldies in their own homes, with minimum intrusion. And more ammunition for the return to affordable housing case!

And very doable with the right leadership coupled to the right policies.

And the lack of those who, through patent vested interest, always run interference!
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Saturday, 11 February 2017 1:32:07 PM
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Foxy,

Your points are valid. While there would be no rental properties (except for public housing) if there was no investment by landlords, the number of people now investing in properties has definitely affected the ability of young families to buy. Housing has become a business opportunity for older people who already have their own homes, and they are blocking youngsters from ownership.

I'm all for 'little' people making a few bob, but I do a lot of teeth-grinding when I see people on TV smirking about the number of entry-level houses they own to make money when those houses could be in the hands strugglers. I know there is no right to home ownership, but it means security and a sense of pride and worth if you do own your own home. And, people still like to leave 'something to the kids'.

As for Chinese investment, well I don't believe in foreign ownership of domestic dwellings, and the current stampede by overseas investors is definitely raising prices. All very moralistic, I suppose, but people come before money, and I'm sure most of us oldies want our descendants to have at least as much as we had. They seem to be doomed to less.

The housing industry is the most pampered one in the country. The Property Council is a bully with too much influence on government.
Posted by ttbn, Saturday, 11 February 2017 2:26:57 PM
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Many Regional centres in Australia have very affordable housing. If the self entitlement generation believe that somehow because they have an arts degree that they deserve a cheap house near Bondi beach then they are dreaming. Some small towns not far from the city have houses starting at about 150k. People are still flown into places like Geraldton and Karratha for work. You are not entitled to live next door to mum and dad unless they pay for it or you do. Stop complaining.
Posted by runner, Saturday, 11 February 2017 3:34:44 PM
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Dear Alan,

I enjoyed your story about your dog.

I wish my husband would agree to us having one.
He wants to downsize into an apartment
eventually, and claims a dog just won't fit into the scheme of
things. (His idea of downsizing is a three bedroom, two
bathroom unit).

Dear ttbn,

Melbourne is full of Chinese-owned high-rises - and the
City Councils are to blame. They let them get away with
shoddy workmanship, lower building standards, et cetera.
As I stated earlier - lack of action and a failure
of leadership is to blame for
the problems.
Posted by Foxy, Saturday, 11 February 2017 3:42:56 PM
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Good thinking, runner. Now if only those regional centres had jobs, the younger generations would be set!

You're a regular genius, aren't you?

The fact that the younger generations have to move to somewhere with no work to buy a house, while your smug generation could buy their first houses within commuting distance from the major cities, only confirms there is a problem.

http://www.quickmeme.com/Old-Economy-Steven
Posted by AJ Philips, Saturday, 11 February 2017 4:00:46 PM
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thanks Mr know it all. That is why some Regional cities need to fly people in and out because their are no jobs. Also their are plenty 457 visas or are aussies to dumb to do these jobs? You also have no idea the sacrifices many made in previous generations to obtain houses. You obviously have no clue. Your ignorance knows no bounds. So great to remain a victim AJ.
Posted by runner, Saturday, 11 February 2017 4:15:20 PM
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Sounds like you’re thinking of mining, runner.

<<That is why some Regional cities need to fly people in and out because [there] are no jobs.>>

I don’t think there’s enough employment in mining for an entire generation, and even if there were, do you realise the problems we’d have with an entire generation skilled in nothing but mining? You think those funny-looking people coming here on 475 visas are a problem now..?!

<<You also have no idea the sacrifices many made in previous generations to obtain houses.>>

Oh, I do. My own parents’ story is a doozie. Still, it was at least possible, and they didn’t have to move to Bumfucksville to do it. Their first house was also only three times the average annual wage, whereas a comparable house now would cost around 12 times the average annual wage.
Posted by AJ Philips, Saturday, 11 February 2017 5:31:03 PM
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It could be done, once upon a time.

My father bought a block of land in Regents Park (Sydney) in 1945 for 5 pounds (about 2/3 rds of a weeks wages), half a mile from the Station.
Regents Park was considered to be the back of beyond.

Built the rere half of a house (not finished till we saved enough cash). Finished in 1960,
The frame and interior wall and ceiling lining (tongue and groove California red wood) came from two ex-NSW Govt Railway bogie refrigerator wagons (five quid each) that he dismantled with a bit of help from 12 year old son (me).

My main job was removing wood screws, half a 44 gallon drum full, consequently the house frame was screwed together.
Posted by Is Mise, Saturday, 11 February 2017 8:22:10 PM
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Just remembered, the exterior planking of the wagons was pitch pine and Dad used it for flooring.
The floors of the wagons were covered in galvanized steel but, over the years, water had got to the timber and it was mainly used for fire wood in the kitchen stove, which was outside under a 'lean to' for a couple of months.

Thinking about the wagons they had probably been imported from the USA.
Posted by Is Mise, Saturday, 11 February 2017 8:33:05 PM
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Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge sums it up well." You have to freaking insane to buy property in Australia now." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-08/time-panic-australia
Posted by Arjay, Saturday, 11 February 2017 8:54:08 PM
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What many people dont understand is that any move that devalues housing, has an adverse effect on the economy, so while on the one hand the house prices may be lower, but the flip side is banks will be much tighter with their lending. Throw in the abolishment of negative gearing and the problem becomes even worse.

The ony answer to affordable housing is to buy where and what one can afford.
Posted by rehctub, Saturday, 11 February 2017 9:53:14 PM
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Many of you have missed a few obvious facts:

According to Bloomberg-

"‘Homeowners, consumers and property investors around Australia are making more calls to financial helplines as three warning signs back up the spike in demand: mortgage arrears are creeping up, lenders’ bad debt provisions have increased and personal insolvencies are near an all-time high.

‘Australia’s households are among the world’s most indebted after bingeing on more than A$1 trillion ($766 billion) of mortgages amid a housing boom that’s fizzled out in parts of the country, but still roaring in Sydney and Melbourne.’

Households have binged on debt. The price of a property is 12.2 times household income.

Little wonder more households are feeling the pinch and are seeking some form of debt relief."

And,

"Household debt has soared to over 180% of GDP, making Australia one of the most indebted private sectors in the world.

The RBA has played its role in ‘facilitating’ this debt binge by lowering interest rates to historic lows.

According to research from McKell Institute:

"Australian wage growth is slowing and is expected to stall in the coming years. Currently, the average weekly wage for an Australian is AUD$1145.70. However, this is expected to only grow in real terms to AUD$1243 per week by 2020.This growth is incredibly slow by Australian and international standards alike, and highlights the threat to the continuation of Australia’s middle class standard of living. At the same time as Australian income growth is slowing, cost-of-living pressures continue to grow, and disposable income is decreasing."

If this is the case any potential upside seems to me to be a pipe dream. Austerity is coming to a place near you and it's going to be ugly.
Posted by Geoff of Perth, Sunday, 12 February 2017 1:51:26 AM
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Absolute crap rechub!

Simply put, need to replace deliberately rationed scarcity and massively over valued/over leveraged real estate, with volume. And, fire up a building boom lead recovery.

Need affordable energy, rapid rail, fibre to the home NBN and quite massive decentralisation. Volume will fire up our steel mills and countless other industries, none of which serves the nation's interests, if located in already overcrowded capital cities.

Jobs? Literally thousands of new regional occupations connected to an algae based oil industry, nuclear power as already tried and proven molten salt thorium, which can be commissioned as projects with a 100 year life and used to SAFELY recycle and recycle nuclear waste, for centuries of free energy! To eventually reduce the half life to 300 years and remove for all time the threat of nuclear conflagration.

We need our own national fleet which ideally, will be nuclear powered fast submersible (roll on roll off) ferries taking whole trains. Along with the world's cheapest, cleanest, safest energy, place us and our MANUFACTURED exports in a position where everyone else competes with us!

Most important is new space age desalination that no longer needs the massive pressure of membrane filtration. But desalinates with the flow, utilizing an electric shock wave, deionisation dialysis.

Meaning, one can desalinate flows in pipes big enough to drive a truck through without ever impeding the flow or upping the pressure, more than than needed to accommodate the topology. And as tried and tested technology, provides 90%+ potable water for quarter of the cost of current, reverse osmosis desalination.

Seriously, we can with the right policies and far less timorous vacillating leadership, not only put the entire country back to work, but create so much of it, we'll have no choice but to import massive temporary contractual guest labor.

And that means we must have leaders and policy proponents who genuinely believe the country and the people are vastly more important than the pampered, the privileged, parliamentary salaries, pensions and unearned entitlements, or their positions or roles!

And all that's really and self evidently missing!
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Sunday, 12 February 2017 10:47:13 AM
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Foxy, you need a two bathroom apartment if you want a dog, with one bathroom her exclusive toiletry, provence and bedsit sleeping quarters.

You'll need a cupboard evacuation fan and synthetic grass carpet for her shower enclosure and out on the balcony. A wet and dry vac will take care of her droppings and the occasional (gasp, shock horror) flea, which after hands free collection may be flushed.

Don't bother with those back of the neck applications of flea treatments, they're a waste of time. See your vet for something to be taken internally that keeps working long enough to take out all the eggs as well! Ditto worms, particularly heartworms.

The synthetic grass mats ought to be able to fit comfortably inside her shower recess and hosed down in there. Alternation from pet bathroom to balcony, will ensure sunlight aided disinfection.

From time to time a little raw bleach can be spayed but only outside or while the extraction fan is rumbling. And counterbalanced by a follow up spray with white vinegar, and if indoors, only with the (fume cupboard) extractor fan operating. A treadmill may provide a substitute walk, but requires familiarity training!

A balcony is essential as is a pet friendly body corp.

Anyone would think I used to train dogs and run a dog obedience school. Remember a dog isn't a little human, but may be toilet training more speedily.

The first command word should only ever be NO, by then she will already know her name, which if shrilled loudly, may lead her to believe you approve the behavior and want it continued.

No and a rolled newspaper thwacked against thigh, yours. Is the only corporal punishment needed. Anything else is fraught with behavioral problems. As is allowing errant puppy behavior that you wouldn't want or tolerate in a grown dog!

If you can't afford to properly look after, obedience train and properly socialize her, don't have one!
Happy Apartment hunting.
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Sunday, 12 February 2017 1:39:31 PM
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Alan, by all meas keep dreaming because after all, dreams are one thing no one can take away from us.

As for rebuilding Oz, another pipe dream because the floor sweeper wants $25 per hour.

High speed rail, another dream. We can't even get people to pay a toll to use a tunnel. One that created hundeds of jobs and cost billions, how do you think they would feel parting with mega bucks to catch a HS train.

Enjoy your dreams my freind. Because thats all they are.
Posted by rehctub, Monday, 13 February 2017 6:02:39 PM
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