The Forum > Article Comments > Homogenised temperatures, and planning for bushfires > Comments
Homogenised temperatures, and planning for bushfires : Comments
By Jennifer Marohasy, published 1/9/2016The difference between the official-adjusted maximum temperature for Rutherglen on 13th January 1939 versus the actual measured value is rather large - more than 5 °C.
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Thanks Aidan. Its always dangerous to assume. The Bureau actually adjusted the temperature up for the day of the 1939 bushfire; and that period more generally. They have recognised the summer of 1938-1939 as an outlier, but perhaps not realized its physical cause: drought and bushfires. Hard to believe; but they are very muddled. Also, Ruthergen is just to the north of the 13 January 1939 firestorm. It was much hotter the day before and the day after at Rutherglen - looking at the unadjusted values. The homogenising of the results makes for more hot days - including on 13 January at Rutherglen, which was to the north of the actual fires.
Posted by Jennifer, Thursday, 1 September 2016 3:54:19 PM
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Aidan, To be clear: the Bureau's treatment of the temperature minima and temperature maxima at Rutherglen are not the same - they adjust one up, and the other down for this period. Yet if the adjustments really corresponded with the move up or down a hill, this would not be the case. As I said they are completely muddled: except the end result of all the muddling is a mean temperature (the average of the max and min) that shows an overall warming trend consistent with global warming theory.
Posted by Jennifer, Thursday, 1 September 2016 4:00:29 PM
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I have long since lost confidence in BOM's historical data.
Nowadays when I hear about the wettest... driest.. or any other claims.... I ignore them Posted by Aspley, Thursday, 1 September 2016 4:03:18 PM
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Deliberate destruction of Government documents is a criminal offence nor is ignorance a defence.
Posted by Dallas, Thursday, 1 September 2016 4:15:04 PM
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Real Estate Agents and even Local Councils in Victoria won't warn house-property buyers that they are buying into:
an area that is regularly burnt out http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/about/major-fires/ "Regular" varies. Houses burn down. Farms destroyed. People die. But Real Estate Agents and even Local Councils choose to forget or do not maintain readily available records - see http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/about/major-fires/ Posted by plantagenet, Thursday, 1 September 2016 5:32:50 PM
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JBowyer
"Ant so you say forget about the actual evidence of what happened on the actual temperatures and concentrate of a dog race?" The comment was about lack of snow and ice; problems created for the classic Iditarod dog sledge race. One recent year they were in part racing over pebbles and rocks, another year they had to change the starting position North, there are other examples in relation to the race. A number of examples were given, interesting that you should pick on the one you believe to be weakest. Concentrating on the dog race is a marvel in relation to comprehension. No comments about : .thawing of permafrost .the atmosphere holding more water vapour .high temperatures in freshwater and ocean water bodies. Shown by the moving of marine creatures North and South of the Equator. The Gulf of Mexico has had quite an influence on recent rain bombs experienced by the US. .glaciers disappearing. The evidence is so clear in relation to these matters. Posted by ant, Friday, 2 September 2016 2:05:53 PM
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