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The Forum > Article Comments > China's demographic nightmares > Comments

China's demographic nightmares : Comments

By Simon Louie, published 12/8/2016

Despite this attempt by the Communist Party to encourage more births, China is headed for a two-pronged demographic disaster.

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China deserves all of the misfortunes heading its way. In the meantime, Australia should starting seeing it for what it is: a dangerous potential enemy. The fools in Canberra should never connected us to China as they have.
Posted by ttbn, Friday, 12 August 2016 10:38:16 AM
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What this article misses is the ingrained culture of filial responsibility in the Chinese community. All those single males will view both the financial support and the ongoing care of their ageing parents as their duty, one that they take most seriously and one in which failure causes disgrace. This will be without the support of a sibling and with inadequate pensions and few retirement or nursing homes. I predict the single male population will have its hands too full balancing work and care to have time to wage war.
Posted by estelles, Friday, 12 August 2016 1:42:37 PM
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China's new found bellicosity is probably due to the huge problems it is facing over the next decade including its aging population, its huge debt and slowing economy.

I'm sure that its attempt to annex the south china sea is due to this.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Friday, 12 August 2016 2:27:36 PM
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//The first major problem which China faces is a surplus of men who will never find wives. A cultural preference for boys coupled with China's draconian one-child policy meant that millions of female babies were aborted or killed at birth in an attempt by couples hoping that their only child would be a boy.//

Skewed sex ratios are naturally self-correcting, tending towards a 1:1 ratio in most sexually reproducing species:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisher%27s_principle

The ageing population problem is one that is being experienced by countries the world over. Its fundamental cause is better medical care, and nobody wants to stop that. We're all just going to have to figure out how to deal with people living longer.
Posted by Toni Lavis, Friday, 12 August 2016 2:43:38 PM
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The gender imbalance is not really an issue for China.

It only occurs in some provinces.

The major problem for China (and for the world) is the consumption levels in China, which are unsustainable.

As well as the unsustainable levels of pollution.

The world uses China as a garbage dump, because China produces so many manufactured items for the rest of the world, but each time an item is manufactured it produces waste, and much of that waste is then dumped in China.

Also what is coming up is a backlash by the public against the increasingly draconian one party political system in China.

That draconian system wants the Chinese to live, breath and think a one party political system, which is against human nature and there will be a backlash at some time.

So it is a type of race whether China implodes due to pollution, or implodes due to its political system.

Australia should learn well from China, and learn very quickly not to overpopulate the country to start with.

Australia is not learning in any way at all, and Australia is destined to double its population every 50 years due to immigration, and Australia is destined to become just as sustainable as China.
Posted by interactive, Friday, 12 August 2016 3:36:26 PM
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It would be unfortunate if China's surplus of males become angry computer geeks who, through China's NSA, launch Denial-of-Service (DoS) attacks against Australia.

Regarding the alleged Chinese DoS attacks on Swimming Australia and the Census:

Yes Swimming Australia is a likely DoS from China target.

I'm not convinced China would gain from DoSing the Census.

The Census DoSing could as easily have been Haktivists/Anonymous from the US and Australia. Turnbull's lot reported the DoS was from US but then Turnbull's lot automatically concluded China was at fault.

A Haktivists/Anonymous DoS of the Census would have been equally or more likely. This is so much more embarrassing for Turnbull because it would tie in with popular Australian opposition to the Census. With Australians using US servers-helpers to do something about the Census.

My knowledge of Cyber and DoS matters goes back to 2007 -
see my COVER STORY article: "The fifth battle domain - cyberspace" at http://www.newsweekly.com.au/article.php?id=2999

The above benefitted from an extended study of Chinese and Russian malware and DoS attacks. With help from a US government Cyber expert from 2008.
Posted by plantagenet, Friday, 12 August 2016 3:44:02 PM
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So the 'one child policy' is creating problems? Who'd a thunk it. Perhaps mandatory 'same sex marriage' could alleviate the problem?
Posted by Prompete, Friday, 12 August 2016 4:41:24 PM
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The excess man-geeks of China's NSA seem to be in the clear regarding Turnbull's embarrassing Census haktivism episode.

Confirming the accuracy of my comment above re the Denial of Service (DoS) attack against the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Census on Tuesday:

our Government is steadily confirming the attack started in Australia-then via US servers-hit the ABS.

Hence no China involvement with the Census, just an Australian public mass action against the Census, due privacy concerns and a response to our growing Surveillance State (SS).

SkyNews reported today (August 12, 2016) http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/08/12/no-resignations-yet-over-census-debacle.html

“Mr Turnbull told reporters [today] the attacks appeared to have originated in the United States, but the actors were not necessarily American.

'It is not very difficult to route traffic through another country using private networks and virtual techniques,' he said.

...Earlier on Friday Senior Minister Christopher Pyne appeared to confirm the disruption of the census came from within Australia.”

It appears Pyne needs to talk to Turnbull more to get their stories straight.
Posted by plantagenet, Friday, 12 August 2016 6:08:59 PM
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Not really "Surveillance State".

Sorry guys at ASD and AFP-IT.

You're doing a good job.
Posted by plantagenet, Friday, 12 August 2016 7:45:18 PM
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It was so easy to predict, but they are doing fine, really. We just don't know the whole truth!
Posted by WilliamScarborough97, Saturday, 13 August 2016 2:45:17 AM
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Entirely predictable and the very reason I was arguing over a decade ago for far better ties and trade relations with a more democratic India, which conversely, has a far younger demographic stretching out as far as the eye can see! Moreover, it has a middle class larger than the USA, who want stuff!?

While a caste system coupled to a veritable kaleidoscope of cultures and an I'm all right Jack ethos, has limited/held back their growth potential, they seem to finally get it and consequently are attacking poverty, given the real growth potential as seen in China, attacking poverty is the most successful way to create sustainable/snowballing economic growth!

One of the most exciting prospects on the immediate horizon is a prototype 300 MW thorium reactor expected to be operational this year?

Cheaper than coal thorium, abandoned if the fifties, because there was no weapons spin off, and vastly less far less toxic waste, provides new hope for impoverished Indians, who would otherwise face the confiscation of their land and humble hovels for new hydro projects!

Bold plans include brand new cities and massive development, which we could assist as a preferred trading partner!
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Saturday, 13 August 2016 9:42:32 AM
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Alan B. Could not agree with you more. I have also extolled the virtues, both moral and financial of prioritising trade/economic links with India (over China) for years. I was delighted when Australia approved sales of Australian uranium to India and fully support the development and sale of Queensland coal to that country.
Posted by Prompete, Saturday, 13 August 2016 10:28:54 AM
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The situation of excess males shouldn't be a problem.
Someone has already suggested same sex marriage.
What about polygamy? A woman could engage with two or more male partners. I believe that Mongolian society pratices this arrangement, why couldn't the Chinese? I also believe that polygamy exists within Australian society already as well. In the past history of China, polygamy was an accepted practice.
Posted by deadly, Monday, 15 August 2016 4:30:20 PM
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Australia and the west in general face the opposite issue. Due to endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDC) (for more information google "tedx" or "our stolen future"). EDC's in pregnant females cause male foetus not to survive full term. We can already see this in the national stats, births. In the future for at least the next 2 generations there will be declining numbers of healthy fertile males.
Why do you think Governments in the West are pushing females so hard? Perhaps because our Governments are really nice people. Lets get real.
Posted by JustGiveMeALLTheFacts, Tuesday, 16 August 2016 1:16:22 PM
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plantagenet;
My understanding is that the DOS attacks that are called
by the Botnet can come from everywhere in the world as the program
gets installed on any computer user who clicked on an unidentified link
in an email. Then when its master calls them up they all come to life
and attempt to connect to the specified URL address.

As far as Chinese policies, perhaps their 9 dash seizure in the Sth China Sea
is more related to their peak in coal production that has already
occurred together with the state of world wide oil production, means
that they are concerned to ensure oil supply in the future.
It is known that there are likely prospects in the area.
The well they drilled a couple of years ago in Vietnamese economic
zone against Vietnamese objection is said to have been dry.
However it may not have been and has prompted the current seizure of open ocean.
Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 18 August 2016 11:21:45 AM
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Yep, both your paras possible Bazza.
Posted by plantagenet, Thursday, 18 August 2016 12:46:38 PM
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Hi Bazza

I've thought more about the Census Denial-of-Service (DoS) of 9 Aug 2016. Basically how would a US Intel Agency view it...

DoS doesn't have to be intentional. It can happen merely because too many people, through their PCs, try to access a site all at once.

If the equivalent of short-term Random Access Memory (RAM) is so configured for a "Mainframe" that is not programed to accept so many users all at once, then the Mainframe "Denies" to "Serve" any of the users. It is perceived to "crash".

Users in locations all over Australia automatically go through US-based servers (eg. at *) to access sites back in Australia. That is why people at internet security agencies in Canberra would have perceived a spike in traffic (around 7.30pm #) from the US to the Census site in Australia.

# A particular problem I saw on the night was that after the 7pm TV news reminded poeple to fill out their internet Census a high simultaneous number of Aussies tried.

I saw that the Census site was not simply Crashing at my first attempt (first 10 seconds or so) which would have "cleeared the deck" for more lucky users. Instead the site was allowing 10 to 20 automatic "redials" every 10 seconds or so.

If there was millions of Aussies trying around 7.30pm then that would therefore register as up to 1,000,000s x 20 near simultaneous attempts - which would Crash almost any poorly planned Mainframe RAM.

* many US servers eg. Google and Microsoft, are at Mountain View, Sunnyvale, California http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_View,_California#Top_employers serve internet users from all over the world

So the ABS Census Mainframe couldn't handle what was perceived to be 5,000,000 x 20 = One Hundred Million near simultaneous users at 7.30pm on 9 Aug 2016.

Shows how a Technical Problem becomes a Political Problem for Malcolm, already governing on a knife-edge.
Posted by plantagenet, Thursday, 18 August 2016 5:17:38 PM
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Centrelink and Census with crashes? I demand that the next Census asks "how many Gov dept nets have crashed under your keyboard in the preceding 6 months"
Posted by nicknamenick, Thursday, 18 August 2016 5:25:50 PM
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plantagenet,
I had a scan through my address book and the vast majority
were Australian ISPs. A few were Google and Microsoft.
On that guess not many on that night would not have been local routing.
From what I have read over sometime you can pay a fee of $1000 to have
a specified URL attacked at a specified time.
The Russians are said to big in that area.
Of course TCP/IP could go looking for alternative routes and end up
going via the US or Europe.
This tends to be not normally happening because the routing is primarily X25 on Fibre.
Someone tried to explain to me how the routing is varied when
TCP/IP is carried by X25. I never did understand it.
Posted by Bazz, Friday, 19 August 2016 5:03:28 PM
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Mail-order brides have been part of the Australian marriage market for some time. There were the Filipino brides then the Russian brides... so, why not the male-order Chinese grooms?
Posted by isprey, Friday, 19 August 2016 9:18:25 PM
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Largely due to China’s one-child policy the world’s largest country and 2nd largest economy is facing the specter of a shrinking labor force beginning in two years and lasting for more than two decades
This phenomenon along with many other factors has China facing a tremendous challenge in maintaining economic growth. Notice the labor force spike that occurred between 2002-2007 as China’s economy boomed and a large chunk of rural population moved into the cities. We have seen a steady decline in the labor force growth rate since the Global Financial Crisis took hold in 2008 and according to this chart China’s labor force will begin to shrink in 2017 and continue to shrink for a long time to come. The double-digit growth rates of the 2000s are very much in the rear-view mirror and it is difficult to envision how China will pull itself out of a downward spiral when so much of the wealth created during the 2000s was a result of rapid economic growth.
http://dunewave.com/Seo-company-qatar
Posted by seo company qatar, Tuesday, 23 August 2016 10:09:51 PM
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