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The Forum > Article Comments > Learning from the Turnbull flop: why leadership spills almost always result in disaster > Comments

Learning from the Turnbull flop: why leadership spills almost always result in disaster : Comments

By Tim O'Hare, published 19/4/2016

The Liberal Party appeared smarter than this when they came to office in 2013. Unfortunately they weren't.

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A more pertinent issue is whether Abbott would be in a better position had he held on. I doubt that he would be.

In both the Abbott/Turnbull and Gillard/Rudd situations individual faults led to unpopularity. Abbott did himself a lot of damage with his doomed paid parental leave scheme, an unpopular chief staffer, and issues where he did not carry his party. Turnbull is seen by many in his party as not being a "true liberal" and it is not clear what he stands for.

An interesting difference is that Labor went to election during or close to the "honeymoon period" following its leadership changes. Turnbull chose not to do this.
Posted by Bren, Tuesday, 19 April 2016 9:29:41 AM
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To add to what Bren said - the 2014 Budget and the Knights 'n' Dames thing were absolute shockers.

Rudd was unable to pick & choose his battles, and the way he attacked Malcolm over supporting a bipartisan approach to an ETS to address climate politics was the undoing of both of them.

Gillard was wedged (i) by Rudd (and his initially, post-fall, few caucus supporters), and (ii) by conservatives who did not like a woman leading and an atheist one at that: Abbott & co played to that, though were not overt about the issue of her lack of belief. Having a hung parliament didn't help, especially when she had to hold on to the numbers via Thomson, & then Slipper as Thomson slipped away.

Abbott was after power for power's sake, and for the sake of the Catholic cabal he's established within the Coalition; but he did not know how to do anything constructive.
Posted by McReal, Tuesday, 19 April 2016 10:09:06 AM
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In the present situation any action taken by any prime minister whatever their party is going to be unpopular with the electorate to get rid of the budget deficit and still be able to fund all the social security promises made. The Weekend Australian said it best with the headline "One in two reliant on the public purse"

When nearly 50% of the population, including public servants are wholly or partially dependent on the Federal Government for their income, it's just a matter of mathematics that this is unsustainable. This is why why we are in debt along with most of the rest of the world.

We live in a world where we are mortgaging the future by expecting the government to look after us. At the present time it is costing the country (us) one billion dollars a year in interest on the money already borrowed for all the benefits we already enjoy. Unfortunately to remain in power the people who vote are going to empower those politicians who give us the most and don't consider where it comes from. No tax reform can be absolutely fair, but the top 10% of tax payers already pay 68% of the income tax and the bottom 50% pay about 3% Consequently it is becoming impossible to please all the people all the time and politics reflects this through popularity. The Senate is not helping in this regard, so I have no idea where they think the money is going to come from either. The Disability I.S. is a great idea, but it also has to be funded. A problem that is already escalating from the original budget cost.
Posted by snake, Tuesday, 19 April 2016 10:29:18 AM
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Why would anyone expect a Turnbull government to be any different from the Abbott regime?

We don't have a presidential system. The parliamentary Coalition didn't change, it's the same dysfunctional collection of Americanised neoliberal ideologues and religious nutters as during the previous regime.

Same toxic snake oil, different spruiker.
Posted by mac, Tuesday, 19 April 2016 11:22:35 AM
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Another anti-Turnbull rant from an Abbott devotee?

In any event, not removing a patently distrusted Abbott would have handed the election to Labor? End of story.

The only problem for Malcolm at the moment are those (whiteanting from within) "conservatives", appalled at the return of the coalition's former leader, who lost the leadership by the very barest of margins.

Fortunately many of Abbott's former key supporters are being exorcised via the preselection process, which is virtually surrounding this problematic personality with moderates; and who could serve the party's reelection prospects best by retiring from politics.

And with that Exit, finally saving what's left of a currently deeply divided, once great party!

I hope Cory leaves and forms his own hard right(homophobic) party, and given the predictable lack of community support, clean out from a once great party, all of the real problems that currently beset it. Or make it inordinately hard to win or retain elector support, or just hard to come by, trust and respect!
Rhosty
Posted by Rhrosty, Tuesday, 19 April 2016 11:43:21 AM
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Just noticed a mistake made in my previous post. It should read one billion dollars a MONTH paid out in interest on government money which has been borrowed to sustain its programmes, not the annual figure which I quoted.
Posted by snake, Tuesday, 19 April 2016 1:00:03 PM
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Great to see that Abbott still gets up the nose of the regressives. Australia is far better off with him having stopped the boats which left egg all over the face of every opponent and regressive. He scrapped the idiotic breathing tax. Turnbull has achieved nil except to waffle on and make the ABC women journalist become like lap dogs when interviewing him. I hope the fools who trashed Abbott in the Liberal party have woken up to themselves.
Posted by runner, Tuesday, 19 April 2016 2:40:40 PM
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There is a certain delicious irony in Turnbull making the case against Abbott on the grounds, inter alia, that (a) he lacked a coherent economic argument and (b) that the polls were showing a likely Coalition loss.

Now seven months after the change of leader we Have (a) a lack of a coherent economic narrative, and (b) a leader and his party both sliding inexorably in a one way direction down.

What will be their next trick? Policy and principle seems beyond their grasp. Perhaps another spell on the Opposition benches will help them regain their focus. I am not holding my breath.
Posted by James O'Neill, Tuesday, 19 April 2016 4:24:18 PM
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