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The Forum > Article Comments > Short term pain for long term gain > Comments

Short term pain for long term gain : Comments

By Mark Passfield, published 1/4/2016

Presently federal politicians are criticised for chasing the populist vote, criticised for trying to reduce spending, criticised for not taking control of spending, criticised for not taking decisive action.

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All well and good. All true. Australia's problem though is not 'populism' or any other 'ism', as suggested: it is the poor quality of our self-serving politicians whose only goal seems to be self-promotion and votes. The very worst example of this type is Malcolm Turnbull, who usurped the position of PM with the help immature twits like Pyne and enough others wanting to make the Liberal party their creature, something that does not represent the true spirit of the party. There is nothing populist about Turnbull and his disgaceful gang, as the polls surely indicate. What we need is a complete overhaul, starting with a reduction in politicians, and a good look at federalism.
Posted by ttbn, Friday, 1 April 2016 9:38:46 AM
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This article is rather inaccurate. For a start it was Rudd, not Howard, who was PM in 2008 when the unemployment got down to 4% (which some wrongly consider to be full employment, but a more detailed analysis shows is full employment in some areas but not others). And the economic boom was due to global conditions, and had very little to do with Howard's tax changes.

But the idea of short term pain for long term gain is misleading, because the policies that produce the long term gain are not the ones that produce the short term pain. Running a bigger short term deficit would, by getting the unemployment rate down and so strengthening the private sector, help us get back into surplus sooner. But it's not running a deficit that's painful, it's the cuts made by the politicians trying in vain to get the budget back into surplus!

In terms of false economies, government spending cuts are right up there with FTTN, and cutting government spending on science at the moment is even worse.
Posted by Aidan, Friday, 1 April 2016 10:27:47 AM
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Hear hear Aidan and well said.

The article is based on an entirely false premise. Namely that we need short term pain for some mythical gain?

Every economist knows that the only way to redress the current fiscal position is via growth and sometimes the only way to kick start that is to helicopter money directly to the people who usually have no other choice than spend it on unmet need!

And via the federal reserve and the printing presses if there is nothing left in the government kitty (Surplus) to allow that to happen.

Whenever we hear a conservative thinker (patent oxymoron) extolling the virtues of austerity, it never ever applies to them?

Or those with their tight fist clenching their money with a tighter grip than that of a scotsman holding on to a one hundred dollar bill!

And when it comes to tax reform from them, all that seems to be on the table, is new levels of anti business complexity?

So that tax avoidance(the object of the exercise) becomes even easier for our TAX AVOIDING foreign guests and the local anti patriotic Benedict Arnold quislings?

Given the way the world is heading, all the UNMISTAKABLE signs are on the table for another GFC. Only this time we have no surplus to resist it with.

And we have obtuse obstructionist pollies with a absolute paucity of new ideas, who wasted the rivers of gold that flowed from the mining booms on creating welfare and unwarranted entitlements for the rich!

And consequently reduced to looking for what they can sell to avoid some permanent fiscal pain, or gain some very short term, (hugely counterproductive over the longer term) advantage, for a shrinking privileged few.

Thinking within a fixed circle of ideas limits the questions, and if the questions are limited, so also are the answers.

The definition of insanity is doing what you've always done and expect a different result!
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Saturday, 2 April 2016 10:17:31 AM
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Talk about poor memories! Don't you people remember Rudd?

He dropped billions into the economy in useless pump priming, & here is the result now. Not a single useful thing, or long term job came from all of it, & you lot want to do it again.

But you are right in one thing Rhrosty. "The definition of insanity is doing what you've always done and expect a different result", & you want to do a Rudd again. Get real.
Posted by Hasbeen, Saturday, 2 April 2016 1:02:39 PM
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Actually Has, it was mostly the creation of welfare for the rich when we had river of gold flowing into government coffers from the mining boom which is responsible for our current fiscal position, rather than the essential pump priming by Rudd!?

I wasn't suggesting the government delve into coffers, but use some quantitative easing to pluck funds from thin air, which should just be helicoptered to those with the greatest unmet need and no other choice than spend the money!

The other effect will be to create some healthy inflation, essential it would seem in a growing economy.

On the plus side and if we really wanted to save some money, we could take our one bucket of education money and distribute it directly to (ATTENDING) students, as a means tested endowment.

Meaning you'd eliminate any bureaucratic skimming; and allow unions to be sidelined, given all parents would be able to pick and chose and just on published results;; and apples with apples comparisons and benchmarked best practices excellence!

Which would be absent in schools forced to keep incompetent teachers protected by unions. Which would just die on the vine due to parents voting with their kids feet so to speak.

Given pragmatism prevails, principals would be handed complete autonomy, eliminate a virtual army of bureaucrats, who currently add as much as 30% to the education budget.

Most of what those folk actually accomplish outside of (thrice)administering a budget, could be accomplished by tuckshop volunteers/retired accountants/bank managers, needing to have an outside interest to keep them occupied, mentally alert and useful?

My parents told me that during the great depression, when Government money was tight/nonexistent, many of the things we now employ virtual armies of bureaucrats to manage, and from the most expensive high rise office towers, were replaced by unpaid volunteers, retired or semiretired professionals, working from home, their cars or on site, who made up water, hospital, and education boards!

And given the NBN, more doable nowadays! The olympic games proves the volunteer spirit is still alive and well here in Oz!
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Sunday, 3 April 2016 11:54:22 AM
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I'm right with you on that one Rhrosty. Every cent of education money, about half of what is wasted today, should go through the kids/parents, to the school of their choice. We would get rid of a heap of over educated, over paid, under worked public school teachers & other staff, who do nothing but go through the motions. We might end up with the great committed teachers we had in my day.

I got a great education in my younger days, in classes of 40 or so. Then in senior school, when only 6 kids did math 1 & 2 honours, we did it down the back of a junior math class. Fortunately 2 of my compatriots were so brilliant that they taught the other 4 of us what the teacher did not have time for. Imagine today's teachers doing 2 jobs at once.

Incidentally we had to do honours to equal city kids who could do math 3, which our country school just could not offer. We had no chance at scholarships without it.

Our teachers ran classes before & after school, as well as coaching numerous sports teams, the choir & debating teams, & the cadet corps. There were teachers in the place doing something with kids until dark most days.
Posted by Hasbeen, Sunday, 3 April 2016 3:02:30 PM
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Hasbeen,

I remember Rudd. But I wonder if you do?

Rudd's economic intervention kept Australia out of recession during the GFC, despite the ore price collapse. You may have forgotten and fallen for the Murdoch press's lie that we were saved by surging demand from China, but that didn't occur until 2010.

His pump priming was far from useless, though the economic recovery was subsequently sabotaged by the RBA board needlessly raising interest rates.

Rudd's actions probably resulted in the private sector creating many long term jobs, and it certainly reduced the number of long term jobs shed. But attributing individual jobs to that is like attributing individual storms to climate change.
Posted by Aidan, Sunday, 3 April 2016 9:21:18 PM
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A few simple keystrokes is all that is needed to virtually double the money supply. (Quantitative easing) And after enabling some (plucked from thin air) money to be helicoptered to unmet need, which would do what such strategies intend to do, put a fire under the economy via increased (discretionary) spending, enable the creation of some essential inflation, and allow the dollar to sink to where it presents our economy with improved economic advantages/export opportunities.

Also allowing the Fed to put interest rates up to take some of the undesirable investor heavy heat out of the residential market, which would bring first home buyers back into the market and provide an economic boost like that we created. With a bricks and mortar led recovery, given the contraction caused by the forced introduction of the regressive GST!

And given this Q.E. measure is both available and beckons, as just rational use of the available economic levers, makes nonsense out of entirely counterproductive austerity measures that invariably hurt everyone! And while useful, a once only measure to give us the breathing space needed to introduce other essential and overdue reforms, like real tax reform, like an unavoidable expenditure tax the only means that would allow the complete dismantling of tax avoidance by all and sundry!

And if you think that is unnecessary, I urge you to watch tonight's four corners, where criminal and endemic tax avoidance is (much much bigger than wikileaks) exposed by an army of investigative journalists, some of whom include so called (tax cheats) leaders like billionaire Assard and his good mate, equally rich and from purloined government money, Putin! As well as laundered drug money from various criminal cartels!

Moreover, given we're being used as a bank box for some of this money, time to claw back what is being removed/ripped off by criminal intent and activity.

And given any of it can be proved to be the proceeds of crime, seized and added to the crime fighting crime prevention budget!
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Monday, 4 April 2016 8:35:41 AM
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It was an interesting program Rhosty.
The pixel money generation by mouse click and austerity are now slowly
being recognised by economists to no longer work to generate growth.
Also for Australia it requires growth in other countries and it is just not happening.

The 7-30 report had a segment on the banks. That is where our biggest
and nearest danger lies. It means that all this discussion about
taxation and spending will be pointless. Just hope we can put the
breaks on this lift on its way to the bottom.
If our unemployment rises to any extent then the banks will be in troble.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 4 April 2016 10:44:50 PM
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