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The Forum > Article Comments > What would war between Saudi Arabia and Iran do to the price of oil? > Comments

What would war between Saudi Arabia and Iran do to the price of oil? : Comments

By James Stafford, published 20/1/2016

Saudi Arabia has a variety of reasons to not back down, not the least of which is the very real sense of being besieged on multiple fronts.

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I guess the low oil price is hurting the speculators james, given you seem to be clutching at straws here?

In any event, the longed for contriflagation is likely to ensure the huge Edmonton reserves are rapidly developed and other countries, like Australia. finally wake up to the oil industry funded con?

And start drilling into their reef to find and develop hydrocarbon resources to possibly rival the middle east.

The first consequence of this resource being preferred for all Australian transport options, would be a lowering of transport generated carbon by 40% and more!

And given it is carbon killing the reef, none too soon!

And if war should erupt in the middle east the world will have no other option but to find and develop alternatives.

We could, given the missing political will, power our entire domestic sector, with the organic waste they create, and for a fraction of the price that is now gouged out of it, James.

The application of graphene could create ceramic fuel cells more than robust enough for cross country vehicles etc, and allow gas powered electric fuel misers to replace those imported gas guzzlers we seem to be forced to use.

And given the widespread application of the Aussie invented ceramic fuel cell, ensure that the exhaust product was mostly water vapour. Moreover the inclusion of graphene would create very rapid recharge batteries(80% in 5 min.) And given we only charge up to round 80% allow a useful service life, for 25 years or more.

A war in the middle east would simply force the intransigent recalcitrant pollies of most countries to declare a state of emergency, then set about reclaiming their patently purloined economic sovereignty; as well as finally eliminating a few very expensive (70 Billion plus per) fifth column/administrative roadblocks?
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Wednesday, 20 January 2016 9:11:59 AM
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Rhosty, what makes you think graphene would improve ceramic fuel cells?

AIUI graphene lets protons through so is very useful for hydrogen fuel cels. But the Aussie invented ceramic fuel cells are completely different: they require a higher temperature to operate, and let oxide ions through. I'd expect any graphene in them to gradually oxidise during operations.
Posted by Aidan, Wednesday, 20 January 2016 9:38:04 AM
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"And given it is carbon killing the reef, none too soon!". The reef is dead/dying? Did I miss a 'news break' from the ABC?
Posted by Prompete, Wednesday, 20 January 2016 2:36:49 PM
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I must have missed it too Prompete.

I first started going to the reef in 47. It was only to the less than great stuff off Townsville, & the stuff around Magnetic Island. It looks if anything, better today than it did back then.

I then spent much of the 70s sailing the reef from the bottom to Cairns, & much of the Pacific islands within a couple of thousand nautical miles of Cairns. I saw nothing around isolated high islands, or in very isolated atolls that was any better than the outer reefs off the Whitsundays. Last time there it had fully recovered from cyclone effects, & looked great.

I get so sick of marine biology academics, who spend less time out at the reef than the average cane farmer amateur fisherman, screaming the reef is dying, every time they put in another funding application, or the idiot journalists who report the rubbish.

Yes there is oil there, a lot of it around the southern end. We should gag every greenie in the country, & go harvest it, while we can, rather than leave it as a carrot to potential enemies
Posted by Hasbeen, Wednesday, 20 January 2016 3:45:16 PM
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This is supposed to be an email from James Rickards (Author Death of Money) to his subscribers."Zoey 01/18/2016 •
On January 14, Jim Rickards sent an email to subscribers to Daily Reckoning this message: “Soon — perhaps just weeks from now — I believe markets will be hit by the third and biggest currency shock since the currency wars started in 2010. It’s going to be a hard stab in America’s back by one of our closest “allies”. Absolutely no one is expecting this… Yet, when this sneak currency attack hits financial markets in the next few weeks… Stocks could flash crash by over 10% in a matter of minutes, causing a selloff… Oil prices could crash even lower than $35 per barrel… Some financial institutions might go bankrupt, taking savers money with them… The U.S.’s most powerful financial weapon will be destroyed… America’s biggest “frenemy” will gain the world’s #1 financial advantage… And a full scale war between a region’s two biggest powers could explode. The U.S. might even get dragged into the fighting… ”

Jim also said that an announcement will be made next Friday(1/22/16) that will set off the media. One of the commentors on Lindsey Williams’ website received this email and posted it. He also said in Jim’s live video stream, he said they expect Saudi Arabia to de-peg from the dollar in the coming days."

Reply

So who is the friend/enemy of he USA? Saudi Arabia? or is it Israel? The Saudis are currently de-pegging from the US $. This is the reason why they killed Saddham Hussien. The US petro $ will collapse if oil continues to fall. The USA and Wall St desperately need another war.
Posted by Arjay, Wednesday, 20 January 2016 6:42:08 PM
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Rhosty and Hasbeen,

No oil has ever been found under the Great Barrier Reef, and most geologists are of the opinion that it's too young for there to be any. So why are you so convinced that it's there?

___________________________________________________________________________________

Prompete and Hasbeen,

Do you think the marine biologists are making up the stuff about coral bleaching?

___________________________________________________________________________________

Arjay,

Well the odds of it being Israel are precisely zero, as Israel already has a floating currency.

It was reported on ABC News that Hong Kong was considering depegging its dollar from the US dollar. I wouldn't be surprised if Saudi Arabia ends up doing so too – it would allow their economy to better withstand the effects of falling oil prices.

War is unequivocally bad for the American economy, and indeed the world economy. Deepening currencies is largely indifferent, and in the long term it's even likely to be beneficial. And while lower oil prices would of course be very bad for oil companies and their shareholders, the overall effect on the economy is likely to be positive because of cheaper energy.

BTW the Americans didn't kill Saddam, the Iraqis did.
And the primary reason America invaded Iraq was because GWB wanted to finish what his father had started. Although Iraq's oil wealth was a factor in the decision, the dollar's status almost certainly wasn't.
Posted by Aidan, Wednesday, 20 January 2016 9:19:47 PM
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Adian, Graphene is the both the strongest martial on earth,and one of the best conductors; and able to produce very robust polymers just one atom thick.

Recent discoveries near Sydney look like presenting one of the finest ore bodies in the world, at least that's what preliminary drill tests seem to be saying.

It also has implications for batteries that hold much larger charges, and able to be discharged and charged in a fraction of the time of conventional batteries.

I'm predicting that a combination lithium cobalt Graphene battery will more than double the current range of the electric vehicle. Which currently seems to be nudging 500 klms.

And I expect the 0 to 100 in 4 seconds for the tesla electric vehicle, to also be past history with these potentially lighter and more powerful batteries.

The potential good news story just doesn't end there, given graphene could allow us to conquer the holy grail for solar cell manufacturers; namely, a flexible polymer solar cell able to absorb 85 of the radiant energy falling on it.

It wouldn't surprise to see this futuristic material to replace paint as a very low cost self recharging option, for both vehicles and houses with seriously improved batteries?

If you have money to invest, try investing in graphene, mining or processing, and almost guaranteed to be a winner.

The stone age didn't end due to a shortage of stone.

Similarly the fossil fuel age will likely end with millions of tons and billions of barrels still in the ground! And possibly in just the next fifteen or so years.

The only folks currently hurt due to low oil prices are speculators and small time tight oil.

On the plus side, low energy prices are generally very beneficial for wider/real economies.

I can't find any sympathy for some very rich speculators now in danger of losing their shirts.

About time they reaped what they created for millions of mums and dads, and energy dependant economies!
Cheers, Rhrosty,
Posted by Rhrosty, Thursday, 21 January 2016 8:16:42 AM
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Aidan. Given we're talking about either hydrogen or methane as fuel type for all known fuel cells, and given both are reductive in their relationships with either metal or polymers, it is almost impossible to conceive of any form of oxidation entering a strictly closed cycle operation.

You seem to be under the misapprehension that fuel cells operate by internal combustion, which is the only process that would include the possibility of some oxidation?

I draw your attention to acid batteries with a central graphite pole.

One would have thought that that extremely hostile environment would have included oxidation.

Perhaps,but only after decades in landfill and a price we could be willing to pay for the most rugged and low cost fuel cells on earth? We make polymer banknotes and are quite capable of including mass production and regular replacements; if your fears or expectations are ever realised.

Previously your critique of lower cost ceramic fuel cells was they were not robust enough for vehicular use.

If we make them robust enough for almost any cross country operation, suddenly there's a potential oxidation problem?

What exactly are you saying. Don't look? Or You're fundamentally opposed to methane as a potential future transport fuel?

Even biogas, which nature makes anyway and better used up, than ever released into the upper atmosphere, where it does immeasurable environmental harm!

And why should we accept any of your advice before thoroughly testing your alleged fears?

And yes it is a hot reaction and therefore must include a coolant. And if a byproduct is endless free hot water for our domiciles, how can that be a bad thing?

As for motor vehicles, we have heat exchange technology or simple radiators, with superior coolants.

In any event, I don't believe we're ever likely to confront this alleged problem, given superior batteries coupled to vastly improved solar voltaic technology will create vehicles able to travel from Darwin to Adelaide on a single initial charge, with only comfort stops needed? However, if the batteries are recharged by inboard technology, we completely exclude one source of carbon production.
Posted by Rhrosty, Thursday, 21 January 2016 9:08:06 AM
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Too young? Rubbish! The great Barrier Reef is just a chain of submerged mountains and part of the oldest geology on earth.

Moreover, mystery oil slicks were all that enabled old time prospectors to find oil. And given the sheer dearth of mystery oil slicks over decades, we can be certain there is some oil there, with the known townsville trough holding an estimated five billion barrels; and other troughs further out holding considerably more.

in fact some industry experts have are in print estimating a hydrocarbon resource to equal or surpass the current know entire M.E. reserves.

If there is even a possibility we might look to see what's there. The anti drilling community goes into mendacious meltdown and obfuscates, with asinine claims like the geology is too young.

The many mystery oil slicks as reported in our daily newspapers for decades not only suggests very strongly that there is likely to be commercially recoverable oil, but that it is in comparatively shallow deposits and therefore cheaply accessed.

And given our traditional sweet light crude produces 40% less carbon in total, when preferred to the fully imported variety; given the reef is being progressively destroyed by carbon, it behooves us to access and use less carbon creating alternatives, one of which is traditional Australian sweet light crude.

Of course the oil companies currently ripping us off at the bowser, ably assisted by the so called green movement, don't want us to force their greedy grasp off our financial short and curlies, and can be guaranteed to use any means, including mountainous misinformation to protect an annual bottom line regularly topping four trillion!
Posted by Rhrosty, Thursday, 21 January 2016 9:44:35 AM
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So assuming the "frenemy" is Saudi Arabia, are the USA going to join in on an attack on Iran,or throw the Saudis to the wolves ?

This is supposed to be an email from James Rickards (Author Death of Money) to his subscribers.

"Zoey 01/18/2016 •
On January 14, Jim Rickards sent an email to subscribers to Daily Reckoning this message: “Soon — perhaps just weeks from now — I believe markets will be hit by the third and biggest currency shock since the currency wars started in 2010. It’s going to be a hard stab in America’s back by one of our closest “allies”. Absolutely no one is expecting this… Yet, when this sneak currency attack hits financial markets in the next few weeks… Stocks could flash crash by over 10% in a matter of minutes, causing a selloff… Oil prices could crash even lower than $35 per barrel… Some financial institutions might go bankrupt, taking savers money with them… The U.S.’s most powerful financial weapon will be destroyed… America’s biggest “frenemy” will gain the world’s #1 financial advantage… And a full scale war between a region’s two biggest powers could explode. The U.S. might even get dragged into the fighting… ”

Jim also said that an announcement will be made next Friday(1/22/16) that will set off the media. One of the commentors on Lindsey Williams’ website received this email and posted it. He also said in Jim’s live video stream, he said they expect Saudi Arabia to de-peg from the dollar in the coming days."
Posted by Arjay, Thursday, 21 January 2016 4:16:18 PM
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Rhosty, graphene is great stuff but whether it's the strongest material depends on your definition of "strongest". Likewise whether it's one of the best conductors depends on the purpose, as low electrical resistance alone is insufficient to make it useful.

Natural graphite's very unlikely to contain sufficiently high quality graphene for the purposes it's speculated to be useful for; it will almost certainly have to be synthesised instead. And it's a high risk industry, though potentially very lucrative.

Regarding oxidation in ceramic fuel cells, I'm referring to the part of the cell where nearly all the hydrogen and methane has already been oxidised, but the temperature is even hotter than in the rest of the cell, and the oxide ions are still coming through.
Indeed if it can't oxidise graphene in that situation, there could well be problems with carbon buildup preventing the fuel cell from functioning effectively.

I never previously critiqued LOWER COST ceramic fuel cells. However I did say that applying ceramic fuel cells to transport operation would be very difficult due to the hot conditions they require to operate. I said nothing about robustness, and the fundamental opposition to using methane as a transport fuel is in your head not mine.

You seem to have failed to comprehend that hot conditions are a PREREQUISITE for (not just a result of) operating ceramic fuel cells.

Oldest geology on earth? Rubbish! Eastern Australia is geologically much younger than west Australia. There's no craton anywhere near the Great Barrier Reef. Most of those submerged mountains you refer to are made of basalt from the Tertiary. I don't know how much you know about geology, but that's younger than the oil. And the volcanoes that produced the basalt would probably have destroyed any oil reservoirs there if any ever existed.

Oil spills from ships and boats are a much more likely source of those oil slicks.

No oil's ever been found under the Townsville Trough. People speculate all the time, but that doesn't make it true. Your problem is you always assume the hype to be true, and ignore the criticism.
Posted by Aidan, Thursday, 21 January 2016 5:24:20 PM
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Arjay, a full scale war between Iran and Saudi Arabia is extremely unlikely. But if Iran started one, America (and its allies) would reimpose sanctions. If Saudi Arabia started one, Europe would call for UN sanctions on Saudi Arabia and America would be unlikely to veto it. Either way, America wouldn't bother getting directly involved. Americans are tired of war, and they've nothing to gain from participating in that one.

If another American financial institution collapses, they may or may not bail it out. Either option is preferable to going to war.
Posted by Aidan, Thursday, 21 January 2016 5:37:49 PM
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I suspect Aidan and many others who comment on this site are paid trolls.

This is supposed to be an email from James Rickards (Author Death of Money) to his subscribers."Zoey 01/18/2016 •
On January 14, Jim Rickards sent an email to subscribers to Daily Reckoning this message: “Soon — perhaps just weeks from now — I believe markets will be hit by the third and biggest currency shock since the currency wars started in 2010. It’s going to be a hard stab in America’s back by one of our closest “allies”. Absolutely no one is expecting this… Yet, when this sneak currency attack hits financial markets in the next few weeks… Stocks could flash crash by over 10% in a matter of minutes, causing a selloff… Oil prices could crash even lower than $35 per barrel… Some financial institutions might go bankrupt, taking savers money with them… The U.S.’s most powerful financial weapon will be destroyed… America’s biggest “frenemy” will gain the world’s #1 financial advantage… And a full scale war between a region’s two biggest powers could explode. The U.S. might even get dragged into the fighting… ”

Jim also said that an announcement will be made next Friday(1/22/16) that will set off the media. One of the commentors on Lindsey Williams’ website received this email and posted it. He also said in Jim’s live video stream, he said they expect Saudi Arabia to de-peg from the dollar in the coming days."
Posted by Arjay, Thursday, 21 January 2016 5:39:11 PM
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Paid? I wish!

Trolls? I'm not the one who's been repeatedly posting the same thing and ignoring the arguments against it!
Posted by Aidan, Thursday, 21 January 2016 5:43:16 PM
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Adian, I used to work in the mining industry, as a chemical engineer, where I depended on my knowledge of designed oxidation followed by precipitation to recover precious metals, and later as an analyst.
I took my lunch with senior geologists and read their industry specific journals, where I read senior geologist's reports on the possibility of major oil reserves in the Great Barrier Reef!

I have a nephew in the oil discovery industry and a brother in law employed as the chief scientist in a catalytic refinery, that turns methane into methanol.

Simply put your arguments are refuted by Pre PC, written industry expert opinion, which I have read!

Even so, if there's nothing there to find, as you endlessly and rigorously claim; then you'll have no objections to a sensitive marine survey, followed by confirmation drilling?

Oh I forgot, a few drill holes is likely to cause much more damage than that of the regular cyclones which devastate 100's of square kilometres of the reef, almost triannually.

And yes, you did claim that ceramic fuel cells with their polymer internals were not robust enough for use in motor vehicles. And you went on to say you preferred hydrogen and the conventional fuel cell with its platinum innards, and yes I paraphrase, given I can't recall your exact wording.

All I have ever asked is that we look at a submerged mountain range the same age as the hugely eroded great dividing range and part of eastern Australia!

Given you seem to be against the use of methane powered fuel cells and investigative drilling of the reef? What are you for, save some of the most expensive and generally unaffordable options.

Nobody can say with so much infallible certainty, that the widely reported myriad mystery oil slicks came from shipping, although the [oil industry funded?] Anti drill brigade would have us believe that is the case!
Posted by Rhrosty, Friday, 22 January 2016 9:28:30 AM
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Rhosty,

A few speculative geological reports from the 1970s don't refute anything! We now know a lot more about the geology of the reef than we did back then.

We don't know whether there's any oil at all under there, yet you're treating as fact the baseless claims that there's a huge amount and it's light and sweet!

"Oh I forgot, a few drill holes is likely to cause much more damage than that of the regular cyclones which devastate 100's of square kilometres of the reef, almost triannually."
WHAT AN IDIOTIC STATEMENT! Drilling won't decrease the amount of damage from cyclones.

There are many things that damage the reef; some natural, some due to human activity and others a combination. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_threats_to_the_Great_Barrier_Reef

I certainly wouldn't support oil exploration while there's as much damage as there currently is. And I don't really think there's much point exploring for oil if we can't be confident it could be harvested without spilling it.

Regarding ceramic fuel cells, I think you must have conflated my claims with someone else's. I made no claims about their durability. I may have said they were unsuitable for most transport applications, but if I did, it was because of their high operating temperature.

Like you I once believed the hype about ceramic fuel cells. But unlike you, when we didn't start to see them in widespread use, I investigated why. I also thought about what could be done about it, hence my suggestion of colocating them with solar thermal power stations. Far from being against methane fuel cells, I'm suggesting a way of making them economically viable!

Graphene lets protons through so it could be very useful in fuel cells; but the conventional kind that works by letting protons through, not the ceramic kind that works by letting oxide ions through.

As for the infantile certainty, it's in your head. What I've said is that shipping and boatinng is the likeliest source of those oil slicks. Yet you seem unwilling to even consider that possibility.
Posted by Aidan, Friday, 22 January 2016 3:23:19 PM
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Just as I'm not convinced that all mystery oil slicks come exclusively from shipping Aidan.

You seem to want to believe that's the only possible source?

As for my comment about Cyclonic damage, it was and you know it, meant to highlight the natural damage and contrast it with the possible minimal damage of a few drill holes.

Given that you seem to quite deliberately misrepresent what I say, you're the one looking like an idiot at best or at worst a St Petersburg troll just filling this site with as much misinformation and the verbal as you think it will stand?

And come to think of it, who would be most hurt by the discovery of a new large easily accessed oil and gas field?

You got it the Russians?

Old time prospectors relied exclusively on mystery oil slicks to lead them to oil, and given mystery oil slicks, any oil they indicated was close to the surface!

As for our oil being light,sweet, and largely sulfur free, that thus far has been the traditional experience, and as such leaves the wellhead as virtually ready to use diesel fuel, needing just a little chill filtering to remove sand particles and the soluble wax content that clogs the injectors on a cold and frosty morning! Or makes that thick black smoke under load.

You may be right, there maybe no oil to be found. But unlike you and your ilk, I cannot know that in advance, without looking.

Something the economically challenged Russians ,who to date have used their very expensive hydrocarbons as a weapon, would just love?

In all the years I worked inside the mining industry, we never knew what was there without looking, and relied on reliable indicators and expert opinion to guide the exploration.

Given both, there's a case for further investigation. Simply put, I can't unsee what I've seen.

What possible objection could you have with confirming investigation or a local low cost oil industry?

What? Sooner allow foreign interests to hold us by the economic short and curlies? How typical of a paid troll?
Posted by Rhrosty, Friday, 22 January 2016 4:47:24 PM
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Oil prices moved up for a while when there were tensions among Iran and Saudi Arabia on ties. But, whatever Saudis are doing, keeping the oil production high and manipulating oil prices, somewhere they are putting themselves in danger.
Posted by littlepiggy, Friday, 22 January 2016 6:27:46 PM
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Yes, while you are pondering the ins & outs of various fuel cells,
Saudi/Iran tensions, here is a bit of news that is back down to earth.

But, Moody’s also added several large oil companies to that list of
possible credit downgrades, including Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:
RDS.A), Statoil (NYSE: STO), and Total (NYSE: TOT). “Even under a
scenario with a modest recovery from current prices, producing
companies will experience much lower cash flows. Today's review for
downgrade considers that much weaker industry fundamentals have
potential to warrant rating changes” for those companies, Moody’s
wrote in a press release.

This is another pointer to problems in the industry after Shell
selling assets such as Woodside just to pay dividends.

Rhosty,
charge a 500km vehicle battery in 4 seconds ?
You would need a three phase supply with cables as thick as your leg.
Bit difficult for a curbside charger.
Either that or a 132 Kilovolt supply. A bit nasty curbside.
Think what that would do to the street's supply if it was in your garage !
Posted by Bazz, Saturday, 23 January 2016 8:03:39 AM
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Adian so you think graphene lets a few protons through? Given we are just talking about something occurring at a molecular level, not an atomic one, that is hard to fathom.

Unless you have a smidgen of science and are just intent on attacking those who just might have some science based ideas or knowledge. Everything you say starts with what makes you think hostile challenge!

All the more reason simply to ignore your crackpot or troll like input in matters scientific or economic, and just crack on looking after our own best interests! Which may include mining the reef!

And let the Russians, little more than a nation of murderous gangsters, drowning in unsold and expensive oil/gas, please themselves, always providing they're willing to pay the ultimate price.
Posted by Rhrosty, Saturday, 23 January 2016 8:21:33 AM
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Bazz, you also misrepresent my written for anybody else to see remarks.

I said 0 to 100 is something I've read as the current top posible 0 to 100 4 second acceleration for an electric powered vehicle.

And proposed the inclusion of graphene could reduce the recharge time to around five minutes. And then to just 80%, Which as common practise would vastly extend the battery life.

We here in Australia have copious natural gas from many sources, instead of exporting it all for very little return to us, to prop up the interests of foreigners, we should keep/use some here.

And given a more robust low cost polymer based fuel cell. Use it to power locally manufactured gas powered ceramic cell driven hybrid electric vehicles. I reckon they'd sell like hot cakes in china and elsewhere that has similar smog problems?

Given the ceramic fuel cell produces mostly pristine water vapor as the exhaust product, we would have eliminated one source of carbon production and enabled a reasonably fast refill of CNG. Add in autonomy (Happening now) and vast distances could be covered even as you catnapped and arrived bright eyed and bushy tailed

Incidently we already have batteries/capacitators that charge and discharge quite rapidly.

Moreover, carry enough useable charge to quite significantly improve the current range of the electric vehicle.

Ordinary folks have had their fill of the machiavellian machinations of members of the oil supply industry; and are looking at all other options that will finally separate the cold, clutching dead hand grasp on their economic short and curlies, by the rapacious oil industry!

Who as you would expect are fighting back with a mountain of misinformation.
Posted by Rhrosty, Saturday, 23 January 2016 8:54:30 AM
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Rhosty said;
I'm predicting that a combination lithium cobalt Graphene battery will
more than double the current range of the electric vehicle. Which
currently seems to be nudging 500 klms.

And I expect the 0 to 100 in 4 seconds for the tesla electric vehicle,
to also be past history with these potentially lighter and more
powerful batteries.

Sorry, I thought you were saying a discharge to 100% charge in 4 secs !

How is the life of fuel cells going ?
My son's father-in-law, Managing director of Dennis said their
experiments with buses worked OK but the lifetime was too short so
they were uneconomical. He said Mercedes had the same result.
That is back 2 or 3 years.

Well, when the pollies have to go by train to Canberra and walk from
the hotel to parliament, or ride a horse, then they will start drilling the reef.
Posted by Bazz, Saturday, 23 January 2016 9:17:17 AM
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Thanks for that Bazz. It might be of some interest, but the federal government ordered a seismic survey of the area of interest in the "reef" and when they got the results, back then, promptly buried them.

Strange if there was nothing to see?

In any event I've seen what is purported to be a leaked copy,(not every pollie is sucking up to the greens) which shows a geological feature where the Townsville trough would lie, and given the size, an estimated 5 billion barrels could be very conservative indeed, and there other larger geological features a little further out; which may have given rise to the published claim that we could have more hydrocarbon resources (verbatim) to our immediate north than the entire known reserves of thee middle east!

In any event a few relatively harmless drill holes would settle the matter indefinitely!

I think it is just a question of time before those technically clever Germans sort out our ceramic fuel cell, so we can use it in CNG hybrid electric vehicles, probably mercs?

And sad really, given we invented the thing and had there been a smidgen of government backing we could be the ones earning the possible future millions.

But par for the investment shy visionless and excuse making national government of any color or political persuasion.

Hence we lurch from one financial crisis to another given we still haven't got the wit to invest in our better ideas or people, or limit our involvement, when what we should be doing is bringing them to a commercial reality!
Posted by Rhrosty, Saturday, 23 January 2016 5:54:10 PM
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Rhosty,
The Super capacitors have a future in electric cars but I think it will
only to improve efficiency. By smoothing out the discharge rate of
the battery could reduce internal heat and simulate lower internal
resistance on peak demands.

I am also convinced that the politicians are the biggest obstacle we
have to get things done. My MHR is a minister and he believes the
service industries do not use energy !
He also admits that cabinet considered buying US nuclear submarines
but decided on 12 diesel subs instead.
He does not believe we might have a fuel problem in the event of
hostile military activity that needed submarines.
We do have firm commercial arrangements !

I read an article by Colin Campbell in which he explained that most
areas that are the best prospects are known and that they are
in areas where the earths plates intersect.
If I remember correctly it was because as one plate moves over another
great heat and pressure is generated. Just what is needed to make oil.

cheers
Posted by Bazz, Saturday, 23 January 2016 9:46:09 PM
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Rhrosty,
Shipping isn't the only possible source for those oil slicks, but it's the only probable source. Because we now know the reef is much younger than it was thought to be in the 1970s, and that much of the reef has water flowing under it, if there is any oil under the reef it's very unlikely to be near the surface.

As for your comment about Cyclonic damage, it was and you know it, meant to belittle the environmental damage that could result if they do find oil. The ban on oil exploration was imposed for a good reason, and that reason has not changed.

AIUI the only oilfield yet discovered off Australia's East Coast was in Bass Strait. Isn't that a bit too far away to extrapolate the quality of the oil that may or may not be under the Reef?

"What possible objection could you have with confirming investigation or a local low cost oil industry?"
Isn't it obvious? Like most Australians I'm concerned about pollution and environmental damage to the Reef.

And if there is oil under the Townsville trough, it will probably extend into the eastern part beyond where oil prospecting's forbidden.

"so you think graphene lets a few protons through?"
http://spectrum.ieee.org/nanoclast/green-tech/fuel-cells/graphenebased-fuel-cell-membrane-could-extract-hydrogen-directly-from-air

"Given we are just talking about something occurring at a molecular level, not an atomic one, that is hard to fathom."
Then you clearly don't know much about fuel cells. Indeed you confirmed that by saying:
"And given a more robust low cost polymer based fuel cell. Use it to power locally manufactured gas powered ceramic cell driven hybrid electric vehicles"
...totally oblivious to the fact that the low cost polymer based fuel cells are a completely different technology to the ceramic fuel cells. The former don't require high temperatures, but don't run on methane and never will.

I suggest you read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_cell to inform yourself of the many different fuel cell technologies.

And it's entirely unfair to call Russia "little more than a nation of murderous gangsters". Russia has about six times as many people as Australia; they're not all like Putin.
Posted by Aidan, Saturday, 23 January 2016 11:44:11 PM
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Adian. I watched an Australian invented "ceramic fuel cell" being assembled by robots in the melbourne factory, as the inventor explained and can assure you the innards are polymer.

Yes there is a question of heat which has just led to the claim, endless free domestic hot water.

As for your remarks on Graphene, you can suspect all you want, but senior geologists, who have seen the core samples are very excited about the probable size of the deposit and the purity of the graphene!

As I understand it China is currently the only place mining, processing and exporting this very rare and therefore very precious commodity?

Not long after the news broke that a survey of the reef had been commissioned, some excited investigative reporters decided to interview the then energy minister on national television. And he calmly put them all down with the following words, "Australian oil is too light to refine or for heavy industrial use".

Well, why would you want to refine something that left the ground as a virtually ready to use diesel, needing only a little chill filtering to remove a few sand particles and the soluble wax content that clogs the injectors on cold and frosty mornings. Which as the first consequence quite massively reduces the total carbon production associated with its use as a preferred low cost indigenous fuel.

I take your point about the Russian people,who it seems voted for the gangsters running the show and stood silent or approved of the annexation of the crimea, and for no better reason than to purloin its hydrocarbon resources and a warm weather port?

Gangsters take what they want and as in the middle east, kill to silence dissent against another mass murdering gangster.

Yes I do tend to repeat myself, however it has been my experience that is how you get folks as thick a bricks to finally understand. Understand?
Posted by Rhrosty, Sunday, 24 January 2016 7:57:32 AM
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Rhosty,
Of course I understand, as I keep having to repeat things to get through to you!
But to get people who aren't so thick to understand, what you have to do is stop assuming them to be so thick, respond to the arguments they make, and don't forget that they may know things you don't.

If you watched a fuel cell being assembled by robots in the melbourne factory, and the innards were polymer then it obviously wasn't one of those ceramic fuel cells that can run on methane. The innards of those are ceramic (with the electrodes a ceramic and metal composite). And at the temperatures they operate at, polymers would melt or decompose.

"Yes there is a question of heat which has just led to the claim, endless free domestic hot water."
That doesn't address the question of heat. Indeed fuel cells produce less heat than conventional power stations. But THEY DON'T WORK WHEN THEY'RE NOT VERY HOT. And that makes them unsuitable for most vehicular operations. Proton exchange fuel cells (which run on hydrogen) do not have that problem.

Graphite is far from rare and is mined in many countries. Processing it to separate the graphene sheets is done in many countries, mostly near the point of use. But most of the revolutionary uses being suggested for it will require it to be of a higher quality than can be obtained from natural sources.

When was that idiot the energy minister?

Any oil that is too light to refine (apart from chill filtering, which I'd count as part of the refining process) would be too light to safely use in an unmodified diesel engine!

Russia briefly had democracy, but as soon as Yeltsin found it too inconvenient he effectively got rid of it, and now Putin uses the resources of the state to silence or eliminate his opponents. There are still elections, but apart from Putin's party the only ones permitted to stand are the communists (still seeking to reimpose the worst aspects of Soviet communism) and the Liberal Democrats (who are actually ultranationalists).
Posted by Aidan, Sunday, 24 January 2016 1:09:23 PM
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You may count chill filtering a part of the refining process Adian, but given the refining process depends on a huge energy input and cracking of the hydrocarbon, I don't; and I've seen largely unmodified engines run on rudimentary filtered Australian sweet light crude.

The fact that it needs little if any processing means the total carbon creation in its processing and use, is around 40% less than the fully imported fully refined and vastly more expensive product.

I'm sorry, but the geologist in charge of the local graphene exploration said, "that china was the only one mining Quality Graphene".

And given your history of reinvention, unreliable memory or just denying everything, I set more store in his knowledge than yours.

Bluegen, if memory serves, put a number of its fuel cells into private Victorian homes, where they ran on cheap natural gas.

When the Victorian government found out that the mugs in mugsville were able to reduce their energy bill, by as much as 75%, hey presto, the price of gas went up!

This is what's called governing for the people!

Not only was bluegen eventually forced offshore, but the state government seemed to conspire to kill the idea, before we started to make millions from its mass production and export?

Incidently there's not a vehicle plying our highways or byways that can't be converted to run on CNG, and as the first result, further significant lowering of the total transport related carbon output.

A few drill holes in the reef isn't going to amount to a hill of beans ,when compared with the triannual damage of fairly frequent cyclones!

I don't know who that minister was, given everybody just referred to him as Minister. Mr Ruddick perhaps?

Since then a government of the people, has locked up more and more of the reef to largely protect it from any further exploration?

The expressed fear of fully imported activists!

And now our fully imported reserves are down to weeks!

It seems Canberra is a place where idiots abound?
Posted by Rhrosty, Sunday, 24 January 2016 5:54:50 PM
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Rhosty,
I concede the point on graphene: I've checked and natural graphite is the best source at the moment, and China is by far the biggest exporter of it.

I'm not saying diesel engines couldn't run on Australian light crude; I'm saying they couldn't run on oil that's too light to refine.

It was an increase in demand for natural gas, combined with the ability to export it, which resulted in higher gas prices; it wasn't a government conspiracy.

But the Bluegen units never really made much sense anyway. On such a small scale the efficiency penalties of keeping it at the operating temperature make it less efficient than conventional power generation.

I agree vehicles can be converted to run on CNG, and that their CO2 emissions are lower on CNG. However engines run less efficiently on CNG.

Many things are damaging the Great Barrier Reef at the moment. Many things inflict damage that would be insignificant on their own, but is a great threat when combined with everything else.

Canberra's had its share of idiots for at least as long as I've lived in Australia, and presumably a lot longer. But our oil supply is not under threat.
Posted by Aidan, Sunday, 24 January 2016 9:12:04 PM
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Adian given as you claim, ceramic fuel cells can't run on methane and give the Bluegen fuels cells did just that I think your complete reliance on links for your mountainous bogus information is self evident.

I've never seen flexible ceramics and the cells in Bluegen ceramic fuel cell flexed!

Moreover, quite happily used methane (natural gas), Which according to your "expert knowledge", ceramic fuel cells can't use?

And instead of addressing your misinformation, tried to gloss over the fact a number of Bluegen ceramic fuel cells were placed in victorian homes where they happily ran on NG(methane)

Methane is mostly hydrogen with a few carbon atoms included in the methane molecule.

As for Australian sweet light crude being too light for diesel engines, again you are quite grossly misinformed; or just intent on filling this site with endless misinformation?

The chief of Santos ran his Pajero on the stuff for years with no apparent harmful side effects.

The oil is only light in comparison to heavy crude, and is just a little thicker (very warm Honey in color and viscosity) as is, than refined diesel.

Removing the soluble wax content, makes the difference far less apparent.

However given the viscosity, it works better with the inclusion of 4.7% methanol, which seems to eliminate the black smoke caused by the soluble wax content.

As for chill filtering being refining?

The oil leaves the well head at considerable natural pressure and natural gas leaves the well head at sub zero temperatures.

Both of these factors can be employed to make such processing as may be necessary for our traditional sweet light crude, almost input energy free and virtually costless.

I've seen insane fanaticism, but you take the cake; and not just in your misinformation pertaining to our reef; but in any other way you can attack/belittle those who might support just such an endevour?

We should access any oil or gas to be found there, for sound environmental reasons, as well as the obvious economic benefits; and indeed, the return to us of our patently purloined economic sovereignty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Monday, 25 January 2016 7:59:39 AM
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Rhosty, I suggest you reread what I've written more carefully.

I specifically said "I'm not saying diesel engines couldn't run on Australian light crude; I'm saying they couldn't run on oil that's too light to refine." In other words, if an unmodified diesel engine can run on it, it's not too light to refine.

I DIDN'T MAKE THE ABSURD CLAIM that ceramic fuel cells can't run on methane. Of course they can. But they don't have polymers in them for the simple reason that polymers can't withstand the high operating temperatures. Whatever you saw flex in the Bluegen fuel cell was either a ceramic or a metal. And I expect you have seen ceramics flex before and not realised it. Specifically you've almost certainly seen glass fibres, which can flex because they're very thin. I expect the Bluegen fuel cells included some very thin ceramic components. Or maybe what you saw was metallic. But it certainly wasn't a polymer.

"Methane is mostly hydrogen with a few carbon atoms included in the methane molecule."
If you're not lying about your background, you know that's not true.

Most fuel cells work by letting hydrogen ions through. They can't let methane molecules through (indeed they can't let carbon atoms through in any form) so they can't run on methane. But solid oxide fuel cells (including the Bluegen ones) let oxide ions through instead, so they can run on methane.

Are you overestimating our ability to extract oil without spilling it? Or do you just think the spills don't matter?

With the arguable exception of some of the trade deals Australia has made, we have never lost our economic sovereignty.
Posted by Aidan, Monday, 25 January 2016 12:08:36 PM
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Around 95% of corporate australia is now headquartered offshore, Adian, and as the first consequence the tax they used to contribute to consolidated revenue goes elsewhere.

And the reason PM Howard gave as his reason for introducing his GST.

Moreover, many of our iconic industries are now in foreign hands and more and more of our manufactured goods are entirely source offshore.

Our big four banks are controlled by foreign hedge funds, and domestic and exponentially growing foreign debt is at record highs!

You may consider that economic sovereignty? however I don't!

I'll concede that thin glass fibres flex, else there would be no optic fibre roll out.

You go too far when you infer that I lie.

If you understood just one thing, you would understand that when a crippling injury costs you your career and your marriage, all that you have left to confer any self esteem, is your integrity!

Please don't ever impugn mine ever again.

You remind me of a famous visiting American marine biologist, who made the news during the late seventies?

She examined our reef and told us, that our fragile reef, was just too fragile to tolerate exploration or mining.

Now given the way the reef can and does repair itself after cyclone damage or the work of the crown of thorns starfish, the reef is just not that fragile or in that much danger, save from the exponentially growing threat of atmospheric carbon and the consequent acidification of our oceans, the lungs of the world.

Hence the need to choose fuel types, regardless where we get them from, which produce far less.

Of course I would prefer alternatives, but that road is stymied by a lack of funding; and that funding is stymied by belligerent greens and their par for the course obsessions.

THey went into the same mendacious moribund meltdown, when "we" were going to drill in Bass Strait. With all sorts of dire (cry wolf) warnings of harm to the marine habitat!

As history demonstrates, the actual experience has been precisely the opposite.
Posted by Rhrosty, Tuesday, 26 January 2016 8:47:36 AM
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