Geoff of Perth - you may kick against reality, and call the realists names, none the less you did not answer the point I made about conventional production. Easy lift oil (not total oil, as clearly that did not) may well have peaked in 2005, because of the under - investment by OPEC. As the article seems to confirm. But shale oil is taking over with the US now exporting - part of the reason for the oil price collapse.

The Hill Group quote you make intriqued me enough to look at the site. I thought it sounded demented. A glance at the site shows that they're loonies still trying to convince the world that we're just about to run out of oil, despite all that's happened. You'll find there report is old - who distributes 79 page reports on CDs anymore? And there is no proof of membership.

Entertaining anyway. Leave it with you.

Curmudgeon the US shale play is a financial disaster, is just a ponzi scheme which has been used by hedge funds and others to push 0% interest credit (debt). 95% of this money will never be repaid. US shale production has zero (0) to do with crude prices, it has been driven by OPEC maintaining or increasing production levels and a staggering fall in consumption due to economic growth falling off a cliff since mid 2014. The shale boom was, is and never will be a solution to our energy issues, you have been drinking the old Matrix Cool Aid if you swallowed the hype in this industry sector. It's uneconomic pure and simple.

I don't care about the age of the Hill report, it's the facts they made that have come to pass.

You can't expect investment in an energy sector where the consumer has less and less ability to pay for the commodity.

You continually harp on about Peak Oil being dead and buried, in fact it is more alive than before, it's just the expected outcomes are different from those most thought would come to pass.

The western world globalisation economy is in a slow collapse, corporate media in cahoots with governments, particularly in the US, EU and the U.K. Continually spruik the green shoots, low unemployment rates, inflation data and a myriad of other statistics which are clearly false. The US is in recession despite what the government and MSM will tell you. Australia is not far behind.

2016 is going to be a big year of continued deleveraging, with the resultant implosion of stock and bond markets.

Peak debt is our problem, one that can't be resolved with more debt! Spruik what you wish, the reality is there if you wish to do the "real" homework.

This article can't be right. We all know we are about to run out of oil any day now so how can it be that we'll still have cheap oil in 25 years?

After all, even though the 'experts' have been telling us for the last 100 years that we've only got 10 years before oil runs out, this time they really mean it. Even though we've never actually ever run out of any resource ever, this time is different because we live in special times. I know that every generation thinks their time is special but this time it really is special. Really.

Geoff of Perth
How can you know the facts in this Hills report have come to pass, if its old and obviously oil prices have collapsed rather than increased? If the shale oil revolution is a financial disaster - and I disagree very strongly - that's a matter for those who have invested in shale oil. The market is still getting oil at a very good price, and will be for some years. The few, remaining peak oil guys will no doubt appreciate that when they drive to their next conference. Petrol will be cheap. Now I have to move on. Fun as always.

Curmudgeon & others;
First OPEC has a very good incentive to suggest that the price will not
rise for a long time.
They are keen to discourage the Wall St financiers from investing
further into the currently zombi tight shale oil companies.

Second the US is not really an exporter. They may export grades that
they have oversupply with but they still IMPORT 8 Million barrels
every day.

We will NEVER run out of oil. We will just not be able to afford to burn it.
The current low price is in fact proof that peak oil is here.
Kenneth Deffreys and others predicted that there would be a number
of cycles of high volatility in the oil price.
As the price rises that will be the end of cycle 2, and if it goes
high again and then low, that will be cycle 3.
That I think answers Mhaze's question.

Tight shale oil has already fallen a little.
The number of drilling rigs in the US fell from 1800 to 650 during 2015.
Think about that !
Peak Oil is alive and pressing on us now.

Here is a sample of a podcast I have just listened to and read at
the same time. Text is there as well. It is long but I feel very
worthwhile. The debt Gail Tveberg and Chris Martensen are talking
about I believe is total debt, government, business and personal.
An extract:

Gail Tverberg: Well I think the thing that people don’t realize is
how closely debt – the growth in debt is tied to the growth in the
economy even back many years ago we needed to add more debt to try as
the economy sort of attempted to grow and what you would see very
often back then was you know, some country would add debt to fund a
war.
And if they were successful maybe they would get some increment
into the economy so that the debt made sense.
And if they lost the war then somebody got their bonds written off.

But what’s happened is that as the cost of energy has gone up especially since
about the mid 70’s the amount of debt required to find GDP growth has gone way, way up.
And I think this is because it takes so much more debt, or so
much more – we need a given quantity of energy in terms of BTU’s or
in terms of how far can make a truck go.
And if it costs a whole lot more to do that we’re going to have to
borrow a whole lot more money in order to make the whole system operate.
So we have a seen a spiraling of debt since the mid 70’s and I think
that’s very much related to the higher cost of energy since then.

http://tinyurl.com/hwn9nch

So read it and wonder how much of this is understood by our politicians.