Curmudgeon, I'm well aware backup is needed - indeed I said it would be logical to conclude that. Regarding your question, YES those forecasting systems reduce the need for spinning capacity! When we know what's coming, it reduces the need for an instantaneous response. And it doesn't take long to get a gas turbine going (except maybe if it's the single shaft combined cycle kind).

SA's connection to the grid is rather limited: just 2 limited capacity connections to Victoria and nothing to any of the other states. Thinking of "all as one system of which SA is a small part" is rather misleading as the wholesale price differs significantly between regions.

The notion that wind power reaching 10% would result in serious problems is misleading. It would not result in any problems that aren't easily solved.

Aiden,

The standard systems used to have two forms of generation. Base load which provides cheap reliable load 24/7, but takes time to ramp up or down and typically was coal or nuclear, and peak load generators (typically gas) that were expensive to run, but could provide power within minutes.

The wholesale power market would vary between $20/MWhr or less at low demand periods and could shoot up to $700/MWhr for the highest peak periods. The high cost gas plants would kick in for the 5-7hrs per day of peak load and make their money then. What has been happening in Germany is that the peak load generation plants have typically been small suppliers that have relied on regular peak demand periods every week to cover their running and capital costs.

What has been happening in Germany who generates nearly 30% of average electrical power with wind is that during peak demand times when these small operators make their money, there are frequent periods when the wind turbines are generating well above average, and because the wind energy gets priority, there no need for the gas plants, with small gas plants losing up to 30% of their income.

The result is that nearly half the small gas plants have gone bankrupt while the coal and nuclear plants are far less effected. This means that when there is a peak demand with no wind the networks are in serious trouble, resulting in network failures being roughly 4x higher than even a decade ago.

Any further % increase in wind generation without significant state investment in gas standby plants will lead to catastrophic network failures.

///Next comes thorium reactors connected to microgrids, which have the added advantage of effectively halving the power bill!///
Go Rhosty! I couldn't have said it better myself. Not sure if they will *halve* the power bill, but they will probably come in cheaper than coal, especially if we consider the *total* power bill from coal.

But yeah, being room-pressure the core can be mass produced on a factory line and a LFTR come off the line one a day, much like Boeing jets. That will be when we finally defeat climate change!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9M__yYbsZ4