Aidan,

Let’s begin with the cost issue because it is the easiest to deal with quantitatively?

I argue:

>"The LCOE of a mostly nuclear powered electricity system is substantially less than the LCOE of a mostly renewable powered system. "

I provide costs from authoritative sources below. Could you please say if you accept or dispute these figures by answering ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ to the questions. Where you answer ‘No’, please give your alternative figure and the authoritative source for your figure):

1. eFuture http://efuture.csiro.au/#scenarios LCOE for default values with and without nuclear are: $85/MWh and $130/MWh respectively (i.e. LCOE of renewables 1.6 times higher than nuclear)

2. Waste disposal and decommissioning costs are relatively trivial

3. Waste disposal and decommissioning LCOE; (nuclear $1/MWh, renewables $0.15/MWh)

4. Nuclear power is about the safest way to generate electricity (LCA basis, all risks included)

5. Nuclear accident insurance is relatively trivial compared with LCOE

6. Nuclear accident insurance is around $0.11/MWh

7. Transmission cost is not included in the AETA LCOE figures

8. Transmission costs are much higher for renewables than for nuclear (at high penetration for both).

9. Nuclear has demonstrated it can supply over 75% of the electricity to a large, industrial economy (e.g. France for 30 years)

10. Non-hydro renewables have not demonstrated they can supply a large proportion of the electricity to a grid in a large industrial economy

11. There is a significant risk that renewables will not be able to do the job (meet requirements at economically viable cost)

12. The ‘expected value’ of this risk, when added to the LCOE, would inflate the LCOE of the mostly-renewables grid by a very significant amount.

LCOE totals:

1. eFuture (excluding accident insurance, decommissioning, waste disposal, transmission, risk of technology being not able to meet requirements): $85 and $130

2. Include accident insurance, decommissioning and waste disposal: $86, $130

3. Include transmission: $88, $150

4. Include risk the technologies will not be available: $88, $200+ (depending on method of estimating consequences and probabilities).

Where you disagree, what are your alternative figures and the authoritative sources for them?