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Peak coal: why the industry's dominance may soon be over : Comments
By Fred Pearce, published 24/6/2014The coal industry has achieved stunning growth in the last decade, largely due to increased demand in China. But big changes in China's economy and its policies are expected to put an end to coal's big boom.
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Posted by JBowyer, Tuesday, 24 June 2014 9:39:40 AM
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the real issue is new competition & over supply of coal, as new coal mines are opening up all over the world.
Posted by imacentristmoderate, Tuesday, 24 June 2014 10:07:55 AM
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If these projections are true then some IPCC emissions scenarios of CO2 increasing after 2050 must be ruled out. Anecdotal evidence suggest cheap coal is harder to find; for example Galilee Basin mine, rail and port developments may be too costly. A good insurance against China reneging on coal phase out plans may be for the West to carbon tax Chinese imports. If he who is without sin casts the first stone then Australia has no moral authority to do this.
If Germany's experience is a guide then China will struggle to get more than 20% of its annual electricity from wind and solar. That still leaves a huge gap for coal. Fact check http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production Posted by Taswegian, Tuesday, 24 June 2014 10:28:49 AM
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Thanks Fred for an optimistic article.
All I can say is the coal peak had better happen sooner than the forecasts you cite or else our children are in big trouble. What can the 'climate acting' nations of the world do to hasten action by China, India, the US, Canada and other recalcitrants (soon to include Australia)? Perhaps nations with a carbon price could levy import equalization taxes on imports from big emitters who don't pay a carbon price? Posted by Roses1, Tuesday, 24 June 2014 10:31:23 AM
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Well, all this was very predictable Fred, when China started stockpiling vast coal reserves and or, opening up many new Mongolian coal mines.
Mongolia only needed in rail line, to price us out of a market? Fortunately, and given a change of government in India, and plans to build a hundred new cities, all may not be lost for our coal or iron ore miners/producers. Yet the writing writ large on the wall, with the stockpiling, and the opening up of new mines around the world, just hasn't gone away, but has just been temporarily deferred! However, rare earths mining and processing beckon, and there are serious shortages, when measured against burgeoning demand, and only a few places where it can be found! Australia is one of those places, and has, i.e., enough thorium, to reportedly, power the world for 700 years! The most successful businessmen, know when to cut their losses, and get out, or move on. Those considering investing in new coal mines, might be better served, developing them as CSG projects, or moving into rare earths mining, or even, light metal smelting! I mean, we currently import all we use! So there just has to be a market here, and indeed, in many even less industrialized, developing domestic economies!? Rhrosty. Posted by Rhrosty, Tuesday, 24 June 2014 11:24:41 AM
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who cares whether the Galilee basin is too expensive or not?
there are larger coal deposits in Mongolia & everywhere else outside Australia with lower costs. Posted by imacentristmoderate, Tuesday, 24 June 2014 11:38:14 AM
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Just like peak oil? in the 1970's oil was set to run out by the turn of the century? Now the US is a bigger producer of oil than Saudi Arabia.
It must be a lovely living trotting round the globe first class on our money whining for a living.
Quick word of advice get a real job, make a real difference and stop lecturing me about my short comings.