More wishful thinking from the peak oil lobby.

Pericles asks an excellent question about the so-called "unbiased observers". Certainly, the source is not the EIA, which the author acknowledges is “the authoritative body on US oil”. It forecasts that high levels of oil production will be sustained. Its latest outlook argues that:

“Estimates of ultimately recoverable resources of oil continue to increase as technologies unlock types of resources, such as light tight oil, that were not considered recoverable only a few years ago”

Its US unconventional oil production projections show a sharp increase in oil production to about 2.8 mb/d in 2017, followed by a gentle decline to level off at about 2 mbd by the 2030s. No sign of “a brief boom followed by a dwindling away of a resource” in those projections. And it has revised upwards its production estimates hugely in recent projections - its 2012 projections expected production to peak at less than 1.5 mb/d.

http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/#release=AEO2013ER&subject=0-AEO2013ER&table=14-AEO2013ER&region=0-0&cases=full2012-d020112c,early2013-d102312a

From my own reading I thought the author was being rather optimistic.
One comment that there are no pipelines near any Australian field
did not take notice that the pipeline companies in the US will not
build pipelines to the fields because they are constantly on the move
and the tight oil is moved by road & rail instead a much more expensive exercise.

There is a large shale oil, (tight oil to give it its correct name),
field in Australia near Coober Peady. From a map I saw the Great
Artision Basin is not near Cooby Peady, am I right ?
If so where will they get the water ? Linc Energy has the major rights
to the field with about 84% of the area.
I should mention that I recently sold my shares in Linc Energy.

The situation with US tight oil is quite critical, as the drilling
moves out from the "sweet spots" the EROEI, energy return on energy invested
falls significantly, this makes the eroei and the net energy produced
rather expensive. It is the mixing of increasingly expensive tight oil
with decreasing volumes of conventional that will drive up the price.
Actually some financial people suggest that the finance will run out
well before the oil runs out. Many companies have been burnt in the
tight oil business, Shell, & BHP amoung them.

Our current oil production is about 45% of our usage and falling at
about 3% a year. Because of this our oil refineries are being closed.
Shell's Silverwater refinery close a couple of years ago, Caltex at
Kurnell was expected to close this year or early next year and the
Brisbane refinery in one or two years. Has Geelong already closed ?
It is up for sale or closure.
Anyway soon we will import 100% of our petrol & diesel.

The governments, Labour & Liberal don't give a damn.

Hasbeen mentions the oil off the Queensland coast.
I do not know what the figures might be and I don't know what the depth
of the oil is either.
But do you really believe that it will be politically possible, after
the Gulf of Mexico BP disaster to get drilling done there ?
Perhaps when petrol reaches $15 to $20 a litre it might be possible
especially when everyone has put theirs cars on blocks because they
cannot afford the petrol, or they are starving because farmers cannot produce enough food with horse power.
Anyway, it is the insurance companies that decide these things and I
cannot see them agreeing.

No matter how big the field is supposed to be when you see quotes that
there are so many billions of barrels, just divide them by 85 million
and you will be surprised how few days they would supply the world.
The geologists say that there are no more Saudi Arabias out there
waiting to be discovered.

The simple matter is Australia is in a precarious position and we
should not be exporting our coal and natural gas.
If we start using it as replacement for petrol and diesel it won't
be long before the easy to get supplies are used and we will be into the expensive stuff.

Yep you hit it in one Bazz. I don't think it will be politically difficult to drill the barrier reef, I think it will probably become politically impossible not to, if the smelly stuff ever hits the fan.

People are only environmentalists when they are rich & comfortable. If the going gets tough, just you watch them trample those pesky greenies into the dirt. If we really need it, we will go get it.

The old cleshay about the stone age not ending because they ran out of stones will be true yet again. Transport will go electric before petroleum is exhausted, but fueled for life by a chip of nuclear substance installed on the production line. When it comes to nuclear we are currently in the equivalent of the automotive, man with a red flag walking in front, age.

Yes I would like to see us reserving more of our resources for our own future, but in this world, where Labor has trained most to demand their "entitlements" there is little chance of a government that tries to restrict the public use of the income from them, I can't see that happening.