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The economic challenges ahead : Comments
By Alan Austin, published 26/11/2013Abbott and co inherited the best economy in the world, can they keep it going up?
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Posted by Killarney, Wednesday, 27 November 2013 8:31:14 PM
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AA,
I claimed the interest bill was roughly $10bn p.a. or roughly $200m a week, I don't have the exact figures, but I don't think that I am far off. Perhaps you have the exact interest cost of Labor's debt? As far as raising the debt ceiling and Electricity Bill's Tea party tactics, the treasury has clear said that the Australian lying party knew full well that the bloated spending machine they left behind would breach the $300bn level by Dec 2013 and exceed $400bn. The raising of the debt level to $500bn is once again coalition cleaning up the mess left by the ALP. Posted by Shadow Minister, Thursday, 28 November 2013 6:59:21 AM
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I think solutions are to be found in new productivity involving new exports and new sources of revenue.
I think infrastructure development that does not produce exportable product will be a burden and not be a good investment at this time. @ Alan Austin, Your comment is appreciated. Thank you. It's good to see an OLO article author responding to comments. I will get onto the 1,000 words this weekend, toward socio-economic solutions. Posted by JF Aus, Thursday, 28 November 2013 7:55:53 AM
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Greetings again,
@Killarney, re: “The lies of the Abbott team are now apparent, but largely unacknowledged. It probably doesn't matter all that much anymore.” Yes, they are certainly apparent. Far more lies, broken promises and hypocrisies chalked up in ten weeks than were recorded in six years of Labor. Refer here: http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/abbotts-broken-commitments-so-many-so-soon,5898 But they do matter. Regarding: “workforce being casualised and forced to compete on a global market dictated by Third World labour rates, yet it still has to struggle with a First World cost of living.” This is an intriguing issue, Killarney. The economists who seem to have most supportive evidence claim it’s precisely Australia’s high wages and very high job security which underpinned the extraordinarily high consumer confidence, retail spending, business investment, economic growth and employment through the GFC. The next three years will prove them right or wrong. If the Coalition lowers wages and makes sackings easier – as they have indicated – then we will observe what happens to growth and employment. The world is watching. @Shadow Minister, yes, your numbers are pretty right. About $10 billion a year. The point made by independent economists is that this level is extremely low by international standards. And, more to the point, extremely low in comparison with the government’s total revenue. $10 billion in interest payments comes out of a total revenue of $360 billion. Economists then consider what Australia’s economy might have been like had Labor not made those strategic borrowings during the GFC. If you had followed the Coalition policies, you would have had much lower borrowings and much lower repayments, say, around $5 billion per year now. But the total government revenue would only be about $290 billion. So which would you prefer, SM: Total revenue of $360bn minus $10bn in interest, or total revenue of $290bn minus $5bn in interest? All the evidence suggests that the level of borrowings achieved and projected in the last few years is exactly right for the conditions of low interest rates, investment opportunities – particularly in productive infrastructure – and high income and growth. No? Cheers, Alan Posted by Alan Austin, Thursday, 28 November 2013 2:10:00 PM
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AA,
With all due respect, you projections of what the debt and revenues that would exist if Labor had not replaced the coalition are extremely fanciful. As most of the debt incurred under Labor's spendathon had little to no effect on the economy, and the inflexible work laws and 20 000 new regulations contributed to the greatest productivity drop in decades. The choice is far more like to be greater revenues with lower debt if the Australian lying party had not won in 2007. Posted by Shadow Minister, Thursday, 28 November 2013 3:18:21 PM
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<< Ludwig, immigration has helped Australia enormously, as it has most other high-intake nations. >>
But is it helping or hindering now, Alan? What about the all-important point that I keep making; that if we have a rapidly and constantly increasing demand, then we need rapidly and constantly increasing economic growth just to stand still? And that surely we’d be MUCH better off if we stabilised the demand so that economic growth actually counts for something by way of real improvements! It is seems to me that the greatest economic challenge ahead is to get the powers that be to take heed of one of the most basic principles of economics: that supply is supposed to match demand, ongoingly. And that a system that incorporates continuous rapidly increasing demand while we are really struggling to keep supply up to it, let alone improve it, is just as crackers and as you could ever get! Posted by Ludwig, Thursday, 28 November 2013 9:28:10 PM
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What we are now facing is a workforce that is being casualised and forced to compete on a global market dictated by Third World labour rates, yet it still has to struggle with a First World cost of living.
The real economic indicator, ignored by the number crunchers on both sides of the political divide is household debt, which is now astronomical. Contrary to prevailing opinion, that debt was not accumulated to pay for the good life. It was accumulated to simply survive.
We're not just living on borrowed money. We're living on borrowed time.