Fear not, Mr Collits.

By choosing to focus on the United States for evidence of diminishing capacity for innovation, you have fallen into the now-familiar trap of ascribing Western experiences to the world at large.

While it may well be true - and I happen to believe it could well be - that the US and Europe (and by extension, ourselves) have run out of steam, there are are a couple of billion folk that have been left out of the equation.

The magnitude of the problems faced tends to be a powerful force behind innovation. We (I mean the US/Europe/us) are relatively insulated from the genuine challenges of poverty, malnutrition (India, Africa) or ground-level pollution (err.... China?), so the chances of our coming up with a solution are minimal.

However...

http://news.discovery.com/earth/weather-extreme-events/7-of-10-most-air-polluted-cities-china-130116.htm

...China is producing record numbers of highly-educated people who will be tackling these problems in the coming years. They will do so, critically, in a business environment that is substantially different to that which we now "enjoy" in the West.

So, nil desperandum, old chum. We - US/Europe/us - may be too jaded, self-satisfied and affluent to worry about innovation. But there are a whole lot more people who are not, and who also benefit from having the biggest problems right there on their own doorstep.

economic theory alone ensures we..will..NEVER run out of resources
the scarcer ones..just become more..expensive..and the common/plenty full ones cheaper..

[but wait..the enron genius..and artificial shortages step-in]..
make the mug punters pay scarcity prices[while their public resources get bought up..*with..endless govt gift giving to..the bailed out capitalists..over pricing the bubbles..

knowing no one of them..doing high treasonn
colluding our destruction..debasinng the queens coin..then stealing our common wealth..the fed the bank telstra..evenour sewrage systems have been sold off and no rented back..from the bankers doinng this ongoing high treason

KNOWING..not one..will ever face jail
not one of thhe banking elite nor their spin lawyers or off book accounting..en-debiting..impoverishing..exploiting deceiving the peons../plus stealing their super into bubbles..[by froth and trouble]

so your told us your faviourite blogs and authors all right wingers I note. Itold us a few thing you don't like but I can't find in this piece is any possible solutions.

Solutions?
Well the economy is 70+% domestic! And that is dependent on discretionary spending.
The discretionary spend is being gobbled up by accommodation and energy prices; and, the ever widening gap between the haves and the have nots!
The have nots are an exponentially expanding group, being added to by a gradually disappearing middle class!
The remaining middle class are still warm and comfortable, as a frog being very slowly brought to the boil, in a fools paradise!
Rising house prices, have convinced some of this group, that they are somehow more prosperous, with more money to spend.
The reality is, replacement prices are also going up, along with quadrupled rates, insurance, stamp duties, maintenance and general repairs.
And do nothing, fix nothing govts, seem to think that it's someone else's problem, and or, only fixed by even more foreign investment and or, foreign control, replete with the ubiquitous tax avoidance and off-shored profits, that always seem to accompany this economic model?
And which is then remedied, thanks to obdurate obtuse govts, by even more of the same!
The gas shortages, can be overcome by a federal govt, getting back into the energy business.
Foreign capital, can be harvested from the sale of thirty year self terminating bonds.
Any other capital shortages can be overcome by quantitative easing, and a virtually doubled money supply, which would invariably accompanied by quite massive downward pressure on the quite grossly overvalued AUD.
Internal revenue shortfalls can be completely eliminated by the repeal of the current tax act in its entirety, and replaced by a single stand alone unavoidable expenditure tax!
I won't tell you how blindingly obvious these solutions are. Or just how blindly obvious, is the absolute determination, not to adopt any one of them, by govts who serve their political masters?
And, we all of us, could be forgiven, for believing it is almost anyone else but us?
Rhrosty.

This is a very strange argument: "the global economy has been growing strongly for a long time, but some people say it might not continue, so it might not."

We can see why when we add another premise: "People have ALWAYS been saying it might not continue, ever since the growth started, and they have never been right."

Unless you can explain why you think the current crop of pessimists have any more credibility than their predecessors, it's reasonable to assume they're just as wrong, and that the trend will do what trends normally do, and continue, while the pessimists continue to do what they normally do, and prophecy doom.

MSN Money's Jubak: Fed Has 'No End Game' for Unwinding its Balance
http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/Jubak-Fed-QE-assets/2013/11/06/id/535077?ns_mail_uid=2393496&ns_mail_job=1544899_11062013&promo_code=157CC-1

Investors are focused on when the Federal Reserve will start to taper its massive asset purchases, but it appears to have "no end game" for the bigger problem of unwinding the immense $4 trillion balance sheet it has accumulated, according to MSN Money columnist Jim Jubak.

There never was an end game. By design the practice of having a privately-owned central bank issue all currency as loans-at-interest creates more debt than money with which to pay that debt. It is a Ponzi-scheme kept afloat only so long as borrowing increases to stay ahead of the accumulating debt.

When the people stop borrowing that is when the Keynesian economists demand the government borrow on behalf of the people (and without their permission) until you reach the point where America is now, with the people unwilling to borrow more and the government unable to borrow more ...
https://represent.us/action/something-insane-just-happened-house-representatives/

which is when the bankers start a World War to force everyone into borrowing more than they want to to fight the war and rebuild from that war. They have played this same game twice now. Crash of 1907 -> WW1. Crash of 1929 -> WW2.
http://www.deviantinvestor.com/5177/gold-sp-or-the-dollar-mr-bernanke/
http://investmentwatchblog.com/realist-news-congress-passes-bill-to-remove-derivatives-regulations-that-were-just-put-in-place/

Crash of 2008, and look how many nations
the United States has already invaded!

http://investmentwatchblog.com/the-housing-market-and-the-world-economy-is-being-held-together-with-tape-the-central-bankers-are-manipulating-everything-so-the-people-dont-realize-what-is-going-on/

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/chase-isnt-the-only-bank-in-trouble-20131105

http://12160.info/profiles/blogs/the-left-right-paradigm-is

http://investmentwatchblog.com/immense-pressure-on-municipal-bonds-waiting-for-bailout/

http://intellihub.com/2013/11/07/u-s-jobs-loss-signals-economic-armageddon/
http://rinf.com/alt-news/breaking-news/america-immoral-aggressive-and-driven-by-lobbyists/

Nanny State must give the private sector a break, as institutional science and political power has failed innovation. The public sector promote their champions where very few real champions historically reside.

banking crimes
http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/bankersinonechunk.php

Every western style economy, rests on just 2 support pillars; energy and capital.
Energy prices have quite massively risen in recent decades, but particularly where privatization has replaced public ownership, which have been accompanied by almost immediate price hikes of up to 400%!
And all these problems we are having with capital, started with the abolition of the gold standard.
When we still had a gold standard, we had stable prices and wages, rather than the endless wages prices spiral we have now. When we still had a gold standard, we sold more to the rest of the world than we bought.
Moreover, we were the third wealthiest nation on the planet and a creditor one at that.
That situation was very much supported by the public ownership of most/all power provision, and a virtually profitless paradigm, that allowed most of our industries to compete with imports.
Since then, and as a consequence of some extremely stupid govt policies? Around 90+% of corporate Australia, have headed offshore, taking their profits and or tax liabilities with them.
Or put another way, more than two thirds of the federal budget.
We have plenty of gas, but we refuse to touch it, almost as if it was someone else's property!
If we would just give ourselves permission to access it and some very important low carbon oil reserves, we could get this economy up and running, and no longer dependent on foreigners for any and or all development capital. And, no longer governed by their timetable to decarbonize the economy.
If all these things and essential reforms, weren't so glaringly obvious, the govt might be forgiven for their current, sit on the hands policies, all while endlessly mumbling, the govt has no business in business.
Well that's just BS; given the only other option is accept endless foreign takeovers, and endless migration by our business sector!
Suggest we all learn the banana boat song, because it is only a matter of time, before we have to adopt it as the unofficial national anthem?
Rhrosty.

You should know by now, Rhosty, that correlation does not imply causation.

>>And all these problems we are having with capital, started with the abolition of the gold standard. When we still had a gold standard, we had stable prices and wages, rather than the endless wages prices spiral we have now. When we still had a gold standard, we sold more to the rest of the world than we bought.<<

http://agbeat.com/editorials/correlation-or-causation-mocking-the-ease-of-creating-misleading-charts/

And this...?

>>Around 90+% of corporate Australia, have headed offshore, taking their profits and or tax liabilities with them.<<

Who might these dastardly companies be, pray tell?

Methinks you have been at the catnip again.

OUG said;
economic theory alone ensures we..will..NEVER run out of resources

You know in one respect you are right. Many resources will never run out;
They will just get too expensive to buy them, and that is the economic theory.
It is known as "Peak Demand !".
Oh dear, there is that four letter word again.

Jon J said;
Unless you can explain why you think the current crop of pessimists
have any more credibility than their predecessors,

There is a quote you should ponder;
If one thinks that exponential growth can continue indefinitely in a
finite world he is either a madman or an economist !

"Peak Demand !".
Bazz,
What about the Peak demand on our social services ? It's been peaking for several decades now & there's no sign of abating, on the contrary.
That's what we need to address quick smart. All the non-producing high earners who use up the bulk of our financial resources are sending us against the economic wall. We really have no choice but to start rewarding effort not just being there. We need to curb the excessive & immoral salaries of CEO's especially those in the public sector. Get infrastructure back on the planning board as importing is costing us too much because this imbalance can't be maintained. In simple terms people need to get off their obese ar$e$ & offer value for money.
A flat Tax is our only hope to get some sort of level playing field.

Individual, oh I don't think that has peaked yet by any means.
It is one of the main causes of our increasing government debt.

As growth declines, money will become tighter as the excess money will not be there.
So while demand for social service will increase money supply to satisfy
the demand will peak, unless the government starts transmitting pixel money.

Actually a book has been written on Peak Everything.
I have not read it but the idea I believe is that as energy is
partially peaking it will take everything into peaking with it.
The theory is everything but everything is dependant on energy.
So alternative energy sources are imperative but can only cope with
a much smaller population.
The energy and resources needed to manufacture these alternative
systems must be built and maintained with current energy and resources.
Some say it is too late to make the switch as we are now entering
a time of zero growth and there will be no excess wealth of positive
GDP to finance the change over to the next energy regime.

That is the catch 22.

govt debt..has little to do with any energy shortage
we simply need stop fuel subsidization of 12 billion..going to mining and farming..

but even they arnt the problem..
the PERCEIVED peak oil..or peak demand..is spin..just so they can increase the prices plus of course the tax take as well [oil was SUPPOSED to peak 13 years ago..yet surprise surprise...the oil well's are refilling..and they found ways to..distilit from shale etc

flat tax means your kid pays tax..on-his pocket money
but the rich..[whokeep their wealth..in tax-avoiding trust funds dont

regardless of the tax rate..the clever enron guys will write in to the laws their escape clauses[i recall much the same thinking re gst..but all we got was a new tax..and the tax avoiders got a new tax loophole

ALL tax is unlawfull[govt usedd to issue its own money[like bankers ddo today..the money is created..CREATED*..by our promise to repay

go read your homeloan documents fine print
you signed..that you Already recieved*..THE MONEY..on the application form..it was only the bank processing the loan..that made the credit real

govt alone has this right[but the clever bankers [by wars..broke the system..tto take over the money creation..AWAY from govt..to where NOW..our OWN govvt MUST borrow..into exzstance..its own money.>{PLUS put ursurous taxation..on its people to repay..that the loan application created

the fed monetizes these contractual applications
but where it went wrong was..war DEBT..see in those times
govt issued war bonds..repayable in twenty years..IN GOLD..

they dont hold full value..till they mature
but bankers saw a way to leverage money creation away from govt
[read creatures of jeckle island]..bought up the paper promise..AND DEMANDED..instant gold[govt of course didnt have the gold yet..so the govt went broke..and we got income tax..to repay the debt..PLEASE NOTE THAT INCOME ISNT WAGE..we dont got wage tax

yet ignorants..who dont got no clue still pay tax on wage
*AS IF it really was income[see corperations/govt etc[ie paper fictions..can..ONLY earn income..as the dead cant earn wage

anyhow two things..the absurdity of joe hockey gifting 9 billion to..the fed[that the fed them..LEVERAGES..up to 25 times..just to bailout foreign...bankers?

if the bank has gone bust AGAIN
give it back to the people who can..thus leverage our tax take
not bwanker bailout..WE DONT NEED ANY TAX..when govt can print its own money..im sick of having to..repeat this endlessly

every time some greedy banker wants more tax on..mugg punters
just so they can steal ever morre free govt cash/bailouts

bah..think why jesus upturned the money changers tables
bankers are the scum..that scrapes of the cat fat cream..that floats on top of everything..including our treasonous govt..how much these greasymutha fruikkers need..not til they wrekked bank-ruptured..eveyone..

taxed to death..to the last drop..then fractional reserve leveraged our cash many fold..just topisss it upon the wall in switerland..or some other tax haven.

bah

the tax avoiders got a new tax loophole
uog,
I fail to see how a flat tax can be exploited when everyone pays the same rate ? Those with initiative will make more every time but that's reward for effort, nothing wrong there. Just sitting behind a Govt desk & evading responsibilities is very wrong & that's what got this country where it is now, a fumbling & stumbling outfit with an awful lot of luck.

if the tax falls due..at..the point of sale
its difficult to..avoid

if you are required to pay anally
then you can cheat..[the easiest way.to cheat is to turn..say a shop you own..[or product you sell]..via a separate trust..in a tax free haven

or by double accounting
or planned bankruptcy

so on the one hand you get too claim full rent costs back
on the other the trust holds your tax free rent..[another may hold the papers to the shop]

the thing is the little guy gets it taken from him
the bigger fish holding it collects at a minimum the interest..or..use of it or total..control..to loose it

ALL TAX IS VOLUNTARY*
some know this..others dont

how does wage equal income..ignorance
and only thee ignorant must pay..[see they DECLARED..they got income]

but you love the flat tax mantra
fine..take it from the bank at withdrawal..directly into the govt bank

but wait govt sold its bank
so where does govt income go?

think about it
follow the money..where does your dollar go to
lets say the fed..[they..leverage it 35 fold..for other banks]
yet not for govt..anyhow flat tax is insane

[better a simple withdrawal tax..ON EVERY WITHDRAWAL..of..say one percent

paid into govt's own savings bank..[liike the commonwealth bank didBEFORE IT WAS SOLD FOR PITTANCE..[9 billion..when..it pays 9 billion TO..a few shareholders/in dividend each year]

anyhow take withdrawal tax..to govts bank..who then lodges it with the fed[leveraging..it by the magic of fractional reserve..money creation]..and bobs ya uncle

just like the bwankers done for centuries
anyhow im over trying to explain it..if your going to push for any new tax..get rid of all the others and just a simple withdrawal tax one everyone..every money movement

ohh..and death DUTIESS..especialy on..trusts and corperations

OUG said;
govt debt..has little to do with any energy shortage

I never said that.
He also said;
[oil was SUPPOSED to peak 13 years ago

No, it was only in 1956 that prediction was made, but as it occurred in
2005-2006 that was a pretty good shot.
Forget tight oil, it will peak around 2015 to 2017.

Individual, people have been suggesting a flat tax for years.
There must be some significant disadvantage for it not to become a
major discussion subject. It would be very easy for government.

Once the economy starts winding down there is a risk of collapse
being triggered. Complex societies, according to what I have read,
about complex systems, collapse very quickly.
Winding down needs clever management. Could our pollies do it ?

The truck driver strike in the UK is given as a modern example.
Three days after the strike began the supermarket shelves were empty
and women were fighting in the aisles over the scraps.
Men were fighting at the service stations for queue positions.

So far all civilisations have collapsed eventually.
Why should ours be an exception ?

There must be some significant disadvantage for it not to become a
major discussion subject.
Bazz,
There is, for those who exploit every tiny little loophole to reduce their tax. A flat tax closes many of those loopholes. The greedy will be making less but it is the most fair system of all. No matter how much you earn you pay, say 18-20 % tax, no if's no but's. None of this writing off crap. Most people I speak with are in favour of flat tax only the hangers-on are against it. Then again they'd be against anything that meant reward for effort instead of reward for bludging.

i have a family..trust..it owns aircraft/ships..hotels breweries/media mines and hookers

i pay my flat tax on 500 silver dollars per year
so i send off my 5 bucks dutifully..but see that
one of my silver dollar's is worth 50 bucks..just forr the suilver content..inthe dollar coin

ok..your dollar coin..is cupra-nickle not pure silver like mine
but i only get 500 of them=500 dollars

=flat tax 5 dollars..in poor man
[cupra/nickle..*dollars"

so what if the 500 coins REAL means 2500.dollars in silver
i got dollars..paid in dollars..except i receive in dollar AMOUNTS..under the tax free..[now]..and then..if i canwish..just live for free travel for fee on my ships planes and luxury resorts..all for free

you..serfs..have noidea..how much loves of money LOVE MONEY
and will do anything to..avoid giving it away as tax

heck one of the great..things is tax free donations
i make to my ol'almamarta[school]..is ALL TAX DEDUCTIBLE..

plus GOVT tops up any donation..DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR..
mate having the cash..or the advantages we got
its great mate..we OWN the lawyers
and our lawyers.write YOUR laws
[they own trusts tax fee too]

anyhow slave get back to work
let us rulers lord..it over your feeble attempts..to steal..MY*money

tax..is for you
not me..you will..never get rich like us..by paying tax

Well OUG that was the most readable post of yours that I have read.
Individual, OUG has made a point, how do you prove just what people
earn ? Of course that is a problem now, so that should not be a point
against a flat tax.

How does a flat tax cope with people on a pension who have some taxable
income ? Is there still a threshold ?
Are super contributions taxed at the standard rate ?
There would be lots of similar questions.

Addressing the article:

Pericles may have hit on the truth (in the first comment on this thread) - necessity is the mother of invention, and the greater the necessity, the greater the effort to discover/invent viable solutions.

Or, in another way: The fat and spoiled will always be less inclined to seek novel and inventive/innovative solutions (other than better ways to count, and increase, their accumulated fortunes).

Mind you, the current 'solution' of many, that of seeking warmer (or 'greener') pastures - by hopping on a boat - ain't the answer.

Still, I am firmly of the view that the age of decadence is rapidly coming to a rude awakening (wherein climate change will be the least of our worries).
Hope for the best, or prepare for the worst? I'm for preparing.

Since continuous 'growth' is fast falling into the trap of ever-diminishing returns (and frenetic over-exploitation), a paradigm shift towards full sustainability and 'balance' is becoming increasingly imperative for the long-term survival of humanity, irrespective of the immediate cost - particularly to our current Western 'lifestyle' and rate of consumption.

If global inequality should be allowed to reach truly intolerable proportions, then look out for the arms-race to beat all arms-races, and for a holocaust of almost inconceivable proportion.

Guardians of the planet for future generations; or exploitative fools gambling (and wasting) all future prospect on 'one last roll of the dice'?
(Too ‘clever’ for our own good? - and/or, for everything truly worth keeping?)

Bazz,
With a flat tax there'd be more money in the coffers instantly because everyone pays tax. It would of course be needed to work in with the GST. Earn a dollar you pay say, 18-20 cents tax. Donate if you will but do not claim it back from tax after all it is a DONATION, get it ?
want to start a business ? Buy the stuff you need, don't expect others to subsidise you by way of writing it off the tax. I know there'd be howls of protest but they'd be silenced in no time when funding for essential services is not a problem anymore because the hangers-on are paying their way & their breed become history.
Infrastructure would employ tens of thousands & the maintenance of it keep thousands employed. There really is so much potential, we only need to keep working on refining flat tax it until such time that Government literally has no choice other than seeing its merit & introduces it. Wages & prices must be frozen for at least a decade so that the economy can stabilise rather than run ahead of us with never a hope of catching up. We must stop the perpetual growth mentality which is in fact nothing more than a mental illness. Just try & talk with one of those fruitcake economists who, by having all the answers can never produce any results.