Even though, as you example, the "International Monetary Fund's short-term forecasts for Europe, which were wildly off the mark, so it may seem that forecasts to 2050 are an exercise in irrelevance..." there is an upside to "the dark art of economic forecasting"...

in the number of goats saved as a result of their entrails not being examined for portents of the future funds.

However, here is a simple suggestion for improvement:

Every economist or forecasting business gets one go, over any timeframe they chose, to make an analysis. Only after such a time and only if their forecasts were accurate are they allowed to make another.

Seeing as how so much 'economic activity' is tied up in totally ignoring such a prescription, I don't expect any change to this so-called service industry.

So, Tim, I will share your disdain about clouded balls by not rushing to place a deposit in a Nigerian Prince.

>>The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.<<
- Ezra Solomon

>>If economists wished to study the horse, they wouldn't go and look at horses. They'd sit in their studies and say to themselves, "what would I do if I were a horse?"<<
- Ronald Coase

Cheers,

Tony

As Sam Warner famously said: "Never make predictions, particularly about the future".

You silly boy Tim.

Now, after this article, you will be excommunicated from academia, & removed from access to a number of lucrative career paths.

An Ivy league study that followed 300 economists over a period of thirty years, discovered that their results were no better than a dart throwing monkey.
Moreover, their predictive abilities declined in direct inverse proportion to their notoriety or reputations.
Besides, the clever economist simply postulates rather than predicts.
Like say, if it doesn't rain it'll probably remain dry?
Or put yet another way, ah to be sure, to be sure, if it weren't for all that rain, hail, snow, ice and howling gale, it'd be a nice, fine, warm and sunny day!
Rhrosty.

surely there is a line here in the same vain as those who can do and those who can't teach....maybe
Those who cam make money and those who can't forecast?