Hi Divergence,

Many thanks for your response and for the very informative link, great reading.

Your degree would no doubt embrace many other associated fields and scientific processes. Congratulations.

If I could just draw your attention to my reply to Festus above, you will note that whilst you might be eminently qualified in some of the sciences, there are five other huge discipline regimes that impact where growth, energy consumption, population and food production might go in the future. (Social, political, economic, religious, ecological and scientific).

As the author of the article, Tom Murphy points out, “I will admit from the start that the assumptions underlying this analysis are deeply flawed”. Regardless, it is an interesting exercise in thermodynamic limits. Its other flaw is that it is done in complete isolation from the other five domains. That is probably why he ended up with a linear curve.

I remember some papers floating around about six years ago related hitting the limits in density for P-N-P substrates for micro chip production. Since then I think they have quadrupled.

Never tell engineers it can’t be done, they make it happen.

I also had a good read of some of the other linked scientific papers, I particularly enjoyed these.

“Global Warming no Threat” paper.

http://www.scitizen.com/future-energies/global-warming-is-no-threat-_a-14-3742.html

“Peak Oil” is Nonsense… Because There’s Enough Gas to Last 250 Years.

http://www.scitizen.com/future-energies/-peak-oil-is-nonsense-because-there-s-enough-gas-to-last-250-years-_a-14-3755.html

I always enjoy real science, thanks again for the link.

Hi Spindoc,

The concept is pretty basic, I agree. But the idea that people need infrastructure was acknowledged by Professor Goldin, the author of Andras's link. What would you think the per capita cost is for Australia? And while I would agree that in the long term migrants might well pay this cost with their endeavours, in the short term an infrastructure debt is incurred. The infrastructure shortfall and government debt in Australia would suggest that high immigration can only be maintained with further debt and shortfall.

I cant think offhand of any developed countries growing populations as fast as Australia, and my knowledge of developed countries with slower rates of growth is that the infrastructure tends to be better.

Feel free to provide some real examples to make your case, S.

Sometimes Fester, talking to you is like asking what time it is and getting the answer, “it’s a green one with a zipper down the side”. Context and relevance are lost somewhere along your thought processes.

I explain just how complex it is, you say “The concept is pretty basic”. I assert that you oversimplify everything to make room for your over simplistic ideological solutions and then you offer an oversimplification to justify your simplistic understanding.

Then you immerse yourself and us in the meaningless rhetoric of ideological trivia. What goes on between your ears is a mystery.

I sometimes think you actually believe you understand things but my teenage grandchildren exhibit a greater understanding of issues than you.

I think it is down to “Google heads”. You pull data and other people’s opinion from the internet and try to represent it as your original thought, reasoned analysis and reality. Nothing could be further from the truth. I think you are just a juvenile con artist craving attention because you think you deserve it. Your similar peers are in awe at the product of your rhetoric engine which you pass off as intellect.

A sad indication off both the times and the failings of our education system. You missed out on so much I have no idea where to begin.

Hi S

The idea of infrastructure and education supporting living standards is simple. It doesn't deny that economic complexities of population growth, but it does imply a short term cost if living standards are to be maintained.

Now, you maintain that the economic implications of population growth are quite complex, seemingly to a point where it cannot be simplified, much like some fractal monster: Is such a thing possible? Perhaps then it might be more sensible to base your argument on real examples. Or you might even like to raise some other point of discussion.

Hi Fester,

You say << Now, you maintain that the economic implications of population growth are quite complex, seemingly to a point where it cannot be simplified, much like some fractal monster: Is such a thing possible? >>

The issue of population growth is indeed very complex, since you’ve asked the question is analysis possible? I’ll take your question as genuine and try to address it.

It is very complex, but it can be analyzed and there are many commonly used techniques for doing this.

Imagine a very large enterprise, like an international company. They have $120 Bn in revenues, operate across 35 countries and employ 60,000 people. The key factors for them are the same as any complex entity. They must consider all the permutations of the factors governing their business, which are social, political, economic, religious, ecological and scientific. (SPERES factors).

Imagine each of the six domains as a pyramid, the more you go down the sides of the pyramid the more the number of issues. In addition the further you go down the pyramid the more the issues overlap with the next pyramid. So it gets more and more complex.

Think of a combination lock with six wheels each representing 0 to 9. The six thumb wheels represent 0 to 999,999 permutations but each wheel (pyramid) can only represent 0-9 in isolation.

If science alone is applied to solving a social problem, it can never offer a solution in isolation, it can only be applied in context with the other domains.

Education is one very small part of the Social domain and the type of economics required only small part of the economics domain. So your analogy refers to only two small parts of only two wheels of the combination lock.

The processes for analysis are enterprise mapping, process engineering and entity relationship analysis.

These processes are designed to value, link, prioritize and establish relationships with all the factors that affect an outcome. They identify and distill down the key drivers.

A fraction of two of six elements can never produce an outcome.

Hope this helps

Thank you, S.

Yes, it is helpful. It sounds a bit like computers generating simulations with large numbers of independent variables and chomping through vast amounts of data, much like climate change simulations. Would the economic simulations be more accurate? And of course in the case of climate change, the finger tends to point at one variable, so would it not also be possible for one variable to be significant in an economic simulation? Even in heath sciences which deal with very complex disease processes, risk is often modified by a small number of variables.

I guess that this should make me a population growth sceptic.