Good morning Rhian,

Responding to your penultimate post first:

Agree with most of this. Except:

Re: “On the relationship between debt and growth – just plot a scatter chart ... It will show you are wrong.”

Not sure I’ve claimed correlation between debt and growth. Growth is only one outcome. Other measures of economic performance include inflation, interest rates, tax levels, productivity and jobs – participation and unemployment. Plus currency value, terms of trade and credit ratings.

The observation that five out of the six lowest debt economies all did particularly badly through the GFC related to overall performance, not just growth.

On productivity, Rhian, I’ve checked the seasonally adjusted series (A2304192L) and don't think this changes anything.

What basis do you believe Mr Abbott has for his oft-repeated assertion: “Labor has overseen a marked fall in Australia’s productivity performance”?

Re: “Do you now agree that the budget papers show that “unemployment increases and growth decreases” in 2013-14?”

Unemployment increases, yes. Growth decreases, no.

Now, to your latest post, Rhian:

1. No. Mr Abbott is wrong on both counts. He misquoted Mr Rudd, who referred to “the China resources boom”. He is also wrong to claim the mining boom was brought to “a premature end” by Labor.

2. No. GDP growth is projected to remain positive and continue among the world's strongest, certainly among comparable countries.

Yes, the jobless rate is rising. But will also remain among the lowest in the world, accompanied by participation rate amongst the highest.

Mr Abbott’s assertion that Labor’s past six years shows an “anaemic job creation record” remains false.

3. Yes, agree with this.

4. Yes, agree with this also. Trade with China has been important in kicking Australia’s economy along for decades now. But there’s no evidence whatsoever that it was a factor in Australia’s sudden surge in ranking from the 12th-best managed economy in 2007 to the best in the world now – by a mile.

So the assertions in the original article regarding the multiple lies by Mr Abbott last week would all seem still fair fact-checking.

No?

Cheers,

AA

Hi Alan

Re productivity – see the data in my post above. Labour productivity growth was higher under Howard. As Shadow Minister shows, the comparison on multifactor productivity is even worse.

The seasonally adjusted productivity data disprove your claim that we have had nine successive quarters of productivity growth. If your wages rose by $10 in January, fell $5 in February, rose $12 in March and dropped $6 in April you would probably, using the moving average methodology used to estimate trends, have recorded a rising trend in wages in the past 4 months. But you would not have had four successive months of rising wages.

Re growth claims. If you are driving at 60kpm, and slow to 30kph, your speed decreases. If GDP expands by 2 ¾ 3% in 2012-13, and slows to 2½% in 2013-14, economic growth decreases. A decrease in growth is not the same as a decrease in GDP.

Re boom. The resource boom IS a China resource boom. Abbot and Rudd are not talking about different booms.

I can’t see a single “fact” in your article that has actually be disproven.

Hi Rhian,

Thanks again for your diligence here.

Yes, agree on productivity. ABS trend series A2304364W shows an increase for 9 of the last 9 quarters, and improvement from 97.7 to 104.8 points through the Labor period.

Seasonally adjusted series A2304192L shows an increase for 5 out of the last 9 quarters, with two negatives and two flat, and similar overall improvement from 97.5 to 104.5.

The former is used simply because tradingeconomics.com uses that data for international comparisons. Which is pretty important. And which most Australian analysts refuse to do.

That the rate of growth was steeper before 2008 is neither questioned nor relevant.

I’ve noted Shadow Minister’s reference to multifactor productivity and requested his data source. No appearance, your worship.

Again, Rhian, is there basis anywhere for Mr Abbott’s repeated assertion that Australia has had “recent productivity decline”?

Regarding rates of growth, you are entirely correct.

Australia’s rate of GDP increase will rise and fall. But GDP is projected to continue to increase.

The falsehoods in the presentations of Mr Abbott, Mr Hockey and other Coalition spokespersons are that growth will stop or be reversed under Labor.

That happened in Australia for one quarter when the GFC first hit, and again in 2011 following severe floods, but not since. It is not projected to recur.

What shows Mr Abbott’s falsehoods that prosperity is “lost” or that Labor has “clobbered the economy” to be particularly tawdry is Australia’s relative performance.

Do you agree these are the economic growth figures for 13 comparable economies in calendar 2006, Rhian?

Australia 3.1%
Austria 3.8%
Belgium 3.4%
Denmark 3.1%
Germany 4.3%
Hungary 3.8%
Iceland 3.3%
Ireland 3.4%
Italy 3.0%
Netherlands 3.3%
Norway 3.3%
Spain 3.9%
Switzerland 3.5%

Average 3.48%

Data: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-annual-growth-rate

And do you agree this is where they all are now – growth during calendar 2012?

Australia 3.1%
Austria 0.7%
Belgium -0.5%
Denmark -0.9%
Germany 0.0%
Hungary -2.7%
Iceland 1.4%
Ireland -1.0%
Italy -2.8%
Netherlands -1.5%
Norway 1.9%
Spain -1.9%
Switzerland 1.4%

The average, excluding Australia’s extraordinary number: negative 0.49%.

Mr Abbott is a liar, Rhian. Impossible to dispute that.

Cheers.

AA

Rhian,

You are right, AA has yet to prove a single point he is trying to make. Full analysis shows that everything that Abbott says is correct. The only thing that is clear is that in spite of AA's cherry picking of variables that the economic management of Howard in 2006 was vastly superior to that of Dudd or Gillard, who displayed a level of incompetence in every area. The stimulus was badly handled, and most was spent long after the need for it had gone.

Now we have a budget update where instead of a surplus promised in 2012/3 we are looking at a further $100bn of debt in the next few years future and unemployment shortly reaching 6.25% and probably getting worse.

So Alan, we are sick of your twisted logic, you can put lipstick on a pig, but he still looks like Rudd.

We have a treasury that is hostage to the idiots Labor calls treasurers, and keep on putting out wildly optimistic forecasts that lets labor continue spending like drunken sailors and appear shocked when as last year revenue only grew by 7.8%.

The sooner we get rid of these labor clowns the better.

Even as AA admits that Howard outperformed Dudd/Juliar in every important variable:

Net federal debt,
Unemployment,
GDP growth rate
GDP growth rate per capita,
Multifactor productivity growth,
Better regulatory environment for small business.

AA continues to try and wiggle and tell us that black is white.

I have observed with bemusement and occasional amusement Rhianna's (sorry, might have got your name wrong) attempts to paint black as white and vice versa - much verbiage only possible by completely ignoring that the GFC ever happened, that those who did not follow the road taken by Australia are now in chaos, that despite the GFC Australia continues to grow (now for 22 years in a row, despite what TA says). Not only that, but as I understand it, Australia's methods have been so successful they have been the catalyst for a swing against austerity methods overseas.

Still, perhaps Howard deserves some thanks - for hoarding taxpayer's money rather than spending it on physical and social infrastructure, thus leaving Labor a lot to spend on (health, education, technology, jobs...) when the GFC struck. Very lucky indeed that the LNP had been tipped out by then, or we'd still be waiting for the theory to kick in - that austerity measures are about sacking people until they get a job. Apologies Colbert Report.

Alan and jcro

I have never denied that Australia’s growth has been better than most developed countries since the GFC.

Alan

Re productivity - according to the ABS, multifactor productivity decreased by 3.1% between 2007 and 2012, and rose by 8.2% between 1996 and 2007 (Table 13, series A2421362J):
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/5204.02011-12?OpenDocument

Re growth – you have not presented any quotes from Abbott indicating that growth will stop or reverse, only that it will slow. Which is what has happened, and what the government predicts will happen in 2013-14.

Re debt. Earlier, you said that “an inverse correlation between low debt before the GFC and economic performance is evident.” So yes, you have “claimed correlation between debt and growth”, and its wrong.

I'm still looking for an actual lie here.