Wim's analysis might have some value but as a tool for forecasting future developments either on the securities market or in industry it would be next to useless. However, I'm not sure that's Wim's intention - in fact, its difficult to say what he's driving at except that he has his own analysis of past industrial development, and that relates to investment.

Certainly industrial development has gone through different phases and maybe we are in a fourth (information?) phase, but as far as investment is concerned as a general rule you want to go with the growing companies (if you can identify them) and avoid those in mature industries. Never mind the fancy historical analysis.

Our "knowledge" of what may or may not have worked or occurred in response to the unknown and unintended consequences of the various technological revolutions that occurred in the past is now essentially useless.

Most of our leaders still subscribe to the model of humankind as described by 19th century Victorian scientism with a bit of infantile and childish religiosity to provide some kind of tenuous emotional support (in the midst of the technological horror story unleashed by our machines, and the horrors of nature too)

We now live in a quantum world where everything is instantaneously inter-connected - welcome to instantaneous everybody.
A world in which micro-electronic revolutions occur every few years. The practical applications of which have all kinds of cultural consequences affecting every aspect of our lives. Look at the changes in human cultural practices caused by the small I-Phone. Then of course there is the now ubiquitous 24/7 electronic surveillence state. There is no place to hide any more.

Technology rules OK! Humankind is being engineered and totally dominated by its technology. Very few people including me have even begun to understand the meaning of the phrase "the medium is the message".

One writer who does perhaps understand something of what is going on wrote the series of essays available on this site:
http://www.wildriverreview.com/user/63#article_list

>>what comes next, war or peace?>>

War is usually a safe bet.

The question is, what sort of war?

All out war similar to WW1 and WW2?

Not impossible but I would say unlikely.

Limited skirmishes on multiple fronts. We're probably there now.

Meanwhile I think the link below sums up China's position rather well:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/6/26/economy/why-chinas-crunch-serious-time

I agree, Parker Alan OAM,

The big trends shaping transport in the next 50 years will come from Asia. Electric bicycles, cars, buses, trams and and trucks which are essential for sustainable transport globally. China is now mass producing electric bicycles and scooters which has already changed the way Chinese people commute and are sell to over 100 countries. China and has initiated the process of mass producing, cars, buses, commercial vehicles to reduce the poisonous air pollution in their cities and to adjacent countries. Japan has been and still is this E-vehicle revolution . Perhaps Australia sleeps.

The experiment with electric bicycles has been so successful that the Chinese government hopes to do the same with e-motor cycles, e-cars, e-buses and e-trucks .The production of electric bicycles in China stood at 27 million units in 2010, is predicted to rise to 40 million by 2015 and could rise to 160 million in 2020. In China this explosive development has created new planning opportunities, both in terms of traffic regulation, pollution control, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and the use of solar cell charging of all electric or hybrid vehicles vehicle. With the efficient production of electric 2, 3, 4 and 6 wheelers, that is linked with the more innovative use of sustainable solar and wind energy energy sources, this is already creating a fourth industrial revolution in China. , Taiwan and South Korea, and hopefully in time India.

Japan was the innovator that invented, in 1989, the first automatic electric bicycle (Pedelec) and exported the production knowhow into China. Japan has also pioneered the development of electric cars and hybrid cars and inseminated that technology into the rest of Asia.

"the fall of the prosperity pillar always results in a revolution"

Fingers crossed.

Let's hope this time it's an *anti*-utopian one.

Until we re-assess the fundamental beliefs the western world has adopted from the ancient Hebrews and the 5th centrury dysfunctional Augustine we won't really be able to deal with the changed technological environment of the 21st century.

Our morality and society structures are in urgent need of reassessment and restructure.

Ideas of family and kith and kin underwent fundamental change after the both late 18th and early 19th century industrial revolution and the 1st technological revolution of the early 20th century.

To advance and to better utilise our collective energies we need to curtail the amount of energy currently wastefully expended on family dysfunction and outdated idealogical concepts and class and gender warfare. We really do need to look at the structure of our society and the adopted political systems more relevant to past eras.