The Forum > Article Comments > Balancing the bonanza > Comments
Balancing the bonanza : Comments
By James Stafford, published 27/5/2013When are petrol prices going to start to decline?
- Pages:
-
- 1
- Page 2
-
- All
Posted by Rhrosty, Monday, 27 May 2013 1:25:41 PM
| |
The question at the start of the article looks for the magic answer as
to when petrol prices will fall. Note the Oil Price web site is an industry investment site. The current WTI price is around US$95 and as the cost of "new" oil from oil shale, is about 5% of US total consumption, you can easily see that shale oil at a cost of approx US$80 a barrel at the well top will hold up the $95 price. Any reduction in WTI oil price to near $80 would lead to a shutdown of shale oil wells as well as the tar sands oil. That would cause an immediate rise in oil price. At present US$95 seems to be the Goldilocks price. However the largest shale oil field the Bakken is showing signs of peaking. Another year will confirm that. We will soon be importing 100% of our petrol & diesel because the 40% of demand that we produce will have to be exported because the refineries are being closed, leaving us at the mercy of the international market, and you know how much they consider others. Rhosty mentions large oil fields to our North. These are probably in the "Yet to be Found" classification. I notice that the major oil companies have less oil to sell every year so I wonder why they are not out there in our North drilling madly ? Posted by Bazz, Monday, 27 May 2013 1:48:22 PM
| |
Yes Rhosty I agree pure electric (not hybrid) is ultimately the way to go and gas fired fuel cells may provide a solution to extending the range and the problem that current best practice Li cells are not nearly as energy dense as fuel. But electric cars are viable even now for urban use and are becoming more so. I recommend anyone who has not yet done so to have a ride in one; you will be convinced.
I think it's worth putting more research dollars into improving electric vehicles as this is the future for personal transport. Also more dollars into decarbonizing our electricity; that can be done with current technologies; see paper I co-authored: http://www.greenswa.net.au/sites/default/files/pdfs/SEN2029study.pdf Posted by Roses1, Monday, 27 May 2013 2:07:45 PM
| |
Do you think that "big oil" will let any government exploit all those wonderful alternative energy options?
They have tight control of all of the western 1st world countries and will not allow any interference with profits. So don't hold your breath waiting for the price of petrol and diesel to ever drop again apart from the minor fluctuations that occur as the giants manipulate prices to fine tune their profit margins. Posted by Robert LePage, Tuesday, 28 May 2013 10:37:22 AM
| |
Rhosty said;
With only bushes and brushes in the electric motors needing to be very occasionally replaced, Actually electric cars use AC motors so they don't even have brush gear to be serviced. I had a drive of the Nissan Leaf electric car. Really, without any exaggeration it was magnificent. It took of like a rocket, the acceleration was enormous and I had to learn to be gentle with the accelerator. It is really unnerving when you switch it on. Only the dial lights up and nothing else happens, that's it ! No motor noise nothing ! It is ready to go. If anyone is interested in seeing recent info on shale oil here is a technical article; http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9954#mor Posted by Bazz, Tuesday, 28 May 2013 11:15:09 AM
|
How about NG powered water cooled, solid state ceramic fuel cells, which produce on demand electricity, and mostly water vapour as the exhaust!
This would eliminate most of the moving parts of current hybrid vehicles.
Regenerative braking and a solar cell paint job, (more Aussie innovation) would extend the range far beyond the current range of any electric car.
The 72% energy coefficient of the NG powered ceramic cell, would produce a range, acceleration and torque, well beyond any conventional, power to weight ratio, CNG powered internal combustion engine. And a much lower centre of gravity!
With only bushes and brushes in the electric motors needing to be very occasionally replaced, one would imagine maintenance costs could be kept right down or just an annual service. The world would queue to buy it?
The super silent fuel cell might occupy the space of say 2 batteries, but weigh considerably less.
Given they produce on demand electricity, no batteries would be needed.
Economies of scale, would allow the costs to be reduced to below the production costs of conventional engines.
Given rechargeable electric cars need to be recharged, with say, coal fired power.
Rechargeable electric vehicles, may still contribute to emission and smog, whereas, the Gas powered ceramic cell does not!
The water vapour it produces as its exhaust could be condensed and collected, and provide a useful source of pristine drinking water!
Carbon fibre bodies, would allow us, to once again produce large comfortable family cars, utes and wagons.
Moreover, if caravanning was on the menu, extra cell capacity, would allow power to be piped to the vans wheels, which could more or less drive the thing!
Rhrosty.