The power of energy need will overcome all the politics involved.
If the fanatics veto the pipeline project the Israelis have a ready
market in the UK for LNG with the regassing installations in Wales.

The 1.7 billion barrels of oil, may be gas liquids and cannot be used
for making petrol or diesel.
In any case it is a very small find as it is equal to 18 days of the world consumption.

Yes Bazz, if the oil is really liquid condensate, then the Israelis, would be very wise to reserve it for domestic purposes only, in which case, it could keep much of their transport options operating for the next twenty years.
Getting into bed with the Russians, and supplying Russian controlled LNG to Asia, is probably a mistake. [Hopefully, it is not yet a done deal?]
Logically, the smaller Tamar field should be reserved for exclusive domestic use, well into the foreseeable future.
The pipeline to Turkey probably also guarantees essential low cost energy supplies for Turkey; and might eventually lead to a major European market; and freedom from quite aggressive Russian market manipulation, for rank political purposes.
A European supply pipeline traversing Turkey, also improves Turkey's prospects of early admission into the EU.
Gas or the cheap energy it provides, could rescue Cyprus, but does very little for the divided house, that is now a very troubled Lebanon, other than, something else to fight each other for?
Rhrosty.

This article is a great example of the author getting their head out of the symptoms and understanding the causes. Great work Jen.

Basically the global energy market is in chaos for four reasons. The first is that new technology will allow commercial exploitation of many alternative fossil fuel sources and that these sources are no longer exclusive to the traditional suppliers. CSG, Oceanic Floor Methane (Japan is already doing this) and Shale Oil/Gas for example. This will inevitably cause international geo-political realignment.

The second is the collapse of the energy markets’ global emissions trading mechanism.

The CCX collapsed in December 2010, by November 2012, Barclays US Carbon trading Desk closed, the UN, EU and NZ markets were trading at just off their all time lows at A$5.60, EU, UN backed credits A$8.45 and NZ trading A$4.10.

By January 2013 these markets had collapsed a further 40% with NZ trading at just US$ 2.00.

The third reason is because the global renewable energy manufacturing markets have collapsed.

RENIXX is the key international stock market index for renewables and tracks the worlds top 30 largest renewable energy companies based in the USA, EU and China. This market is down 90 percent since 2007. (Sources; The Australian and NZ Climate Science Foundation)

In the USA alone eight of their largest subsidized renewable energy manufacturers have filed for bankruptcy between 2007 and 2012. Beacon Power Corp, Ener1, Evergreen Solar, Solyndra, SpectraWatt, Babcock and Brown, Mountain Plaza Inc and Solar Millennium. The cost to the US taxpayer is U$ 3.9 Billion.

A further six subsidized green energy companies are in default or in decline at a cost to the US taxpayer of U$ 6 Billion. The wind industry in the USA, the largest in the world, is predicted to lose 70 to 90 percent of its orders. Investors predict its total demise.

Cont’d

Cont’d

As at March 28 2013, “CHINA'S Suntech reached its zenith as the world's largest solar panel producer, but has plunged to the nadir of bankruptcy in just a year, highlighting the woes of the industry it shaped”. (Sources; the Global Warming Policy Foundation and The Australian)

The fourth reason is because their no longer exists any global emission cap and governance mechanism with the failure of Kyoto.

So if you were in either end of the energy market (supplier or consumer) you would have two alternatives. You would either go hard on finding competitive fossil/nuclear energy sources, or you could pretend that the great green revolution is still in full swing and try to get the dead cat to bounce. The UK/EU are in the bouncing cats business whilst the rest of the world, our competitors, are forging ahead to put us out of business.

So until such time as the market determines just who is going to do what with whom, the energy market will remain chaotic.

Meanwhile the “Peak Everything Brigade” is still trying to get their heads out of ideology, scary stories, pseudo-science, vested interests and utter confusion whilst trying to sound sane. They don’t have any answers because they don’t even understand the questions, sadly that will not stop them from telling us everything we need to know about everything they don’t know

HMMM, yes Spindoc, thanks for all the info in the renewables.
I had read a little about some of those companies and industries you
mention, but only just bits and pieces.

Peak Everything, well some of the everything have peaked already and
there are no ready alternatives for most of them.
Sure we can use aluminum for electric cables, which is done already
for long spans, but not really suitable for most other uses.
The Chinese are buying copper instead of gold, isn't that interesting.
There are warehouses full of the stuff.

Bazz,

Hmmm.

You say thanks for the information and then head to the place I predicted?

You are full of “information” about the “facts” about what?

<< Aluminum for electric cables, gold and copper>>.

You have data but you cannot rationalize or assimilate anything into anything. It’s just data.

You are a classic case of a “Google Head”, you go on-line, get some data, post it and expect someone to understand what the hell you are talking about. Digest it for yourself for goodness sake. Make some sense out of your data and present some conclusions of your own. Stop being so damn lazy and give us your considered opinion rather than the data you throw out there without context or relevance.

This is a debating forum, present something we can debate.

Well a couple of facts, aluminum is used for transmission lines, but
they have steel core because aluminum is not strong enough.
Aluminum cannot be used for building wire because it breaks when drawn
into conduit and is too stiff in the sizes that are bigger than copper
of the same current capacity.

So we have a peaking problem there OK ?

Spindoc,

you can add 'Shale Oil' to the known's now:

It's clearly uneconomic, $42B in investment in the US alone in 2012, Return on energy invested (which by the way is the crucial factor in the supply and demand market and additionally the rate of production to drive the ever needed economic growth given our fraction reserve banking system) was $32B or thereabouts.

Shale Gas has a defined decline rate of around 60 to 80% per well/pa.

You don't have to be a genius to realise that without 'cheap oil' our current industrial based economic future faces a number of head-winds that will continue to challenge us into the foreseeable future.

Solar, Wind, Geothermal etc are not the panacea everyone is seeking, unfortunately oil (that being the cheap stuff we are all used to) is in terminal decline, global exploration and discovery peaked in 1968 and yes there has been an unimaginable amount of technology that has provided a brief stop gap that has ameliorated production loss from long-lasting historic fields, unfortunately global decline now exceedes discovery by a factor that is strangling EROEI.

Physics is the name of the game, not economics.

Gas is going to be our transition fuel into the future, provided we can find a suitable, cheap and abundant source of energy that can provide our exponentially growing population into the future.

I am not a 'doomer' but nothing to date even comes close to closing the energy decent gap and nothing is on the horizon that shows any real 'policy' shift toward a better energy/economic future.

Substitution and efficiency can only go so far, after that it become a zero sum game.

Just saying!

Shale gas:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/9975652/Shale-gas-could-heat-all-homes-for-100-years.html

And abiotic oil is contradicting the peak oil syndrome.

Thorium is the way to go.

Cohenite,

sorry but shale gas changes nothing see:

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-03-28/the-shale-gale-is-a-retirement-party and

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-03-24/will-the-final-blow-for-america-s-shale-gas-revolution-be-high-prices and this

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-03-25/commentary-awash-in-misinformation-america-s-domestic-tight-oil-bump

As for Abiotic oil, well that just made me laugh. Peak Oil is not a syndrome it is a reality, physics guarantees it.

Thorium is obviously part of the future, unfortunately it will take 20 to 30 years to fully transform our existing energy grid.

Do we really have that much time up our sleeve?

Geoff

Here Here Geoff;
One thing though I will question on.
Geothermal, at least the hard rocks version.
The energy source is granite and it is heated by radio active decay and
would have thousands of years of half life.
There is one hell of a lot of energy down there.
It is not just in South Australia but in Nth NSW as well.
Surely whatever it costs to perfect the techniques it should at least
have a multi decade attempt to make it work.

The companies working on it ran out of money but they did get as far as
blowing steam out the pipe. I believe corrosion was the problem.
That project is so important that if it cannot be funded by such as
Origin the government should take it on. Any source of energy that
has the promise of perhaps thousands of year has to be attempted.

"physics guarantees it."

Then how to explain the hydrocarbon seas of Titan:

http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2008/02/14/2162556.htm

Shale gas is not limited:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/shale-revolution-takes-the-world-back-to-the-future-on-fossil-fuels/story-e6frg8zx-1226425744364

Hi Geoff of Perth,

<< you can add 'Shale Oil' to the known's now:>>

I might just extend to your comment by suggesting that you can indeed add Shale Oil, but you can also add any fossil fuel that is, has or will become commercially viable.

Meaning commercially viable due to technological advances, geopolitical shifts, economic growth, debt reduction, shifting industrial geographic locations, new competition from developing nations and most significant of all, the global collapse of the green energy infrastructure.

I stand by my assessment that “until such time as the market determines just who is going to do what with whom, the energy market will remain chaotic”.

And predominantly fossil fuel based. That’s easy to predict because it has already happened.

Getting back to shale gas & oil.
An interesting statistic, the drilling rig count for the US is down
11.4% in last year.
It does not suggest a healthy shale industry.

"It does not suggest a healthy shale industry."

Maybe a more efficient one with development overtaking drilling.

Sorry Cohenite,

"Maybe a more efficient one with development overtaking drilling."

If you look at the data you will see that the rig count is down because it is uneconomic and has been identified by those in the know as a ponzi scheme, which was identified early on and despite this, investors poured money in for the quick buck return it did (DID) provide, with depletion rates running at 50 to 90 odd percent it is pretty obvious why the rig count is down.

Simple physics not economics.

Geoff

No, unfortunately it means that they are having difficulty raising
funds as most of them are having trouble making money, only partly
because of the low gas price.
BHP Billiton lost $2.5 billion and got out and Chesapeake got itself
and its CEO into trouble with the SEC.

They are getting decline rates up to 80% a year.
THey just cannot increase the rate of drilling fast enough to stand still.
Its the old Red Queen problem.