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European crisis no laughing matter : Comments
By Julie Bishop, published 7/3/2013At a recent political rally of the German Social Democratic Party, a candidate for Chancellor, Peer Steinbrueck pointed to the political situation in Italy as a challenge for all of Europe.
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That is that in Italy, the situation is critical, but not serious.
The fact that a former clown could win a large proportion of the vote truly puts things in perspective.
My prediction for Spain, Greece and Italy is that one or more of them will eventually have a military coup, which will take them out of the EU, default on all debts, and possibly plunge the world into a major depression.
Those few who study history will be aware that only a few decades ago both Spain and Greece had military governments.
Another fact which is apparent is how, once again, Australia has benefited from undeserved luck. The massive suffering which is accompanying the collapse of the EU is so great that any thought by internationalists that Australia might be coaxed into such a union has vanished. Again, the suffering of the PIIGS is a salutary lesson in the need to balance our government's books.
The best summary of the current world situation has been given by Niall Ferguson in his 2012 Reith Lecture, when he said:
"The problem is that governments are no longer able to maintain the welfare community at the standard of living to which they consider themselves entitled, with the revenue they receive from the taxes that people are prepared to pay".
Current pension schemes in almost all western countries will bankrupt governments in coming decades due to people living longer and needing more expensive medical treatment. The only answer, unpalatable as it might be, is massive cuts to all pensions, including age, disability and unemployment.