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The Forum > Article Comments > European crisis no laughing matter > Comments

European crisis no laughing matter : Comments

By Julie Bishop, published 7/3/2013

At a recent political rally of the German Social Democratic Party, a candidate for Chancellor, Peer Steinbrueck pointed to the political situation in Italy as a challenge for all of Europe.

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There is one point about Italy that has been missed by the author and all commentators:

That is that in Italy, the situation is critical, but not serious.

The fact that a former clown could win a large proportion of the vote truly puts things in perspective.

My prediction for Spain, Greece and Italy is that one or more of them will eventually have a military coup, which will take them out of the EU, default on all debts, and possibly plunge the world into a major depression.

Those few who study history will be aware that only a few decades ago both Spain and Greece had military governments.

Another fact which is apparent is how, once again, Australia has benefited from undeserved luck. The massive suffering which is accompanying the collapse of the EU is so great that any thought by internationalists that Australia might be coaxed into such a union has vanished. Again, the suffering of the PIIGS is a salutary lesson in the need to balance our government's books.

The best summary of the current world situation has been given by Niall Ferguson in his 2012 Reith Lecture, when he said:

"The problem is that governments are no longer able to maintain the welfare community at the standard of living to which they consider themselves entitled, with the revenue they receive from the taxes that people are prepared to pay".

Current pension schemes in almost all western countries will bankrupt governments in coming decades due to people living longer and needing more expensive medical treatment. The only answer, unpalatable as it might be, is massive cuts to all pensions, including age, disability and unemployment.
Posted by plerdsus, Friday, 8 March 2013 7:11:55 PM
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European crisis is no laughing matter. Your right there, but why restrict that comment to Europe?

The whole of the EU is not a basket case however. Germany (although not perfect) with a proportional voting system and high productivity you must agree is a stand out. It is a contrast to the rest of the EU, most of the world and Australia for that matter.

If Australia did not have the natural resources to fall back on I have no doubt Australia would be in the same position as Italy, Spain, Greece and Ireland. This I believe would be the case irrespective of which major franchise was in power.

Austerity in EU style cannot work. The two reasons are, it does not penalise the parasite rich and it is not linked to productivity.

While parasite activities (Politicians, Bankers, Lawyers, Advertisers) attract more reward than productive ones (Farmers, Manufactures, Builders), productivity will continue to decline along with competitiveness.

Until voters can elect proportional government to represent them, they will continue to get minority governments with majority control and leaders they don’t deserve or want.

The poor will get poorer and pay. The rich get richer and take more.

It is a global condition, not just a European one and it is no laughing matter.

The best result for this year’s election is another hung parliament and a move to proportional representation.
Posted by Producer, Saturday, 9 March 2013 5:02:10 PM
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Arjay and I are actually at cross purposes. My point there is that the debt hysteria is a deliberate and cynical political creation.

Arjay and I are strongly in agreement on funding debt - a government bank could and should fund public debt. Arjay is entirely correct about the savings from getting the banksters' snouts out of the trough.
Posted by R. Ambrose Raven, Saturday, 9 March 2013 8:52:42 PM
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plerdsus is acting in common with the Hard Right's denialists and fellow travellers - to transfer the blame for the Great Recession from the villains - the banksters and their class - to the victims. Thus they pretend that the problem is an unaffordable social welfare system, to preserve the plunder of the rich.

For such people, truth is whatever serves the needs of the moment.

Current global economic difficulties are indeed largely the fault of the banksters, due to the (inevitable) bursting of a three-decades-long debt-driven asset price bubble that they created to enrich the rich, perpetuated by them and the politicians and media that they own and also of course the aspirationals whose wealth is dependent on the pyramid scheme continuing.
Posted by R. Ambrose Raven, Sunday, 10 March 2013 11:07:59 AM
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RAR,

While incurring a deficit might help boost the economy in the short term, there is a point at which the debt level causes the cost of borrowing money to rise to the point where the cost of servicing the debt starts to overwhelm the ecomomy. Many countries in the EU have reached this point.

You cannot spend your way out of debt. Keynes was a fiscal conservative who recommended running a surplus in times of growth to enable deficit spending in times of recession. Successive Labor government have misrepresented Keynes to run continuous deficits in the EU and Aus leading to unnecessary pain when a real recession occurs.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Monday, 11 March 2013 12:48:17 AM
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