Mark, using the term peak oil is not particularly helpful because it is a very simplistic phrase, which people can and will read into it what they want, to describe a very complex situation. Which peak oil are we talking about? Per capita - passed decades ago, crude oil production - on a seven year plateau, liquid fuels production - a marginal increase since 2005, oil exports - declining since 2005. Are we talking production in terms of volume or energy content?

If we measure 'liquid fuels' on an energy content basis then the marginal production gains over the last few years are even less impressive. If we applied a net energy analysis to global liquid fuels production we would find that even though the liquid fuels supply has made some statistically insignificant gains in the last few years, society is getting less useful energy to fuel our economy. This is a paradox which a simplistic view on the oil/liquid fuels situation will not assist in understanding. Added to that the major growth in liquid fuels production has been coming from natural gas liquids, which are primarily used as a petrochemical feedstock rather than as a transportation fuel.

I skimmed the paper you referenced, and its analysis of OPECs situation tells only a portion of the story. There is no mention of the up to 300 billion barrels of OPECs 'political' reserves - that most likely don't exist but have been added by OPEC nations to bolster their production quotas. Nor do you provide any reasonable argument as to why OPEC would want to increase their production, let alone if they are capable of significant gains (barring Iraq).

As far as Monbiot goes, my article was on the USAs situation, nothing to do with the global story. Hence why should I mention it?

Rhrosty;
Those that believe that peak oil is real and with us now are not necessarily greenies.
I have been reading on the subject for some years now and I am by no
means a greeny. I suspect that only a small minority of "peakists"
would be greenies.
I think you are confused on that because both greenies and peakists
are both asking for alternative energy but for different reasons.

As Leckie has been trying to explain, "Peak Oil" is becoming a more
complex story as its effects become more noticeable.
Production of oil could fall off its peak because we cannot afford it.
Under that scenario, there would never be a shortage of supply.
However what may happen is a balancing mix of the two functions,
a mild physical shortage and for most of us an unaffordable supply.