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The Forum > Article Comments > States need to intervene in population policies > Comments

States need to intervene in population policies : Comments

By Peter Strachan, published 25/10/2012

Population and fertility policies can lead to failed states.

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Some of your rationale is still a little puzzling, Divergence.

>>...migrants, unlike Australian children, have been raised, educated, and trained at someone else's expense<<

Well, errr, yes. But is this not an argument for welcoming them, rather than turning them away?

>>...they can be screened, so that people with criminal records or expensive disabilities can be weeded out<<

Yep. Ditto.

>>The idea that they are somehow superior people is nonsense<<

Not even contemplated, let alone suggested. They are just normal folk, like you and me, trying to make their way in the world. By force of circumstance, they tend to do as all migrants before them have done, and work that little bit harder. Much of that extra effort is out of sheer gratitude, those I have spoken to tell me. They would feel that they are insulting our hospitality if they didn't put everything into it. Would you perhaps be happier if they slacked off, which would at least enable you to make your point mathematically.

>>...the net benefit is extremely small, something that you refuse to take on board<<

On the contrary, I accept it categorically. I also accept that the benefit might seem small to you. But it is still positive, is it not.

Matt Wade in today's SMH identified a possible source of your pessimism.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/after-the-moderation-comes-the-new-reality-20121120-29ny4.html

His suggestion is that we have begun to think that the boom times were normal, and therefore have convinced ourselves that we are somehow being short-changed by the relatively modest growth we are experiencing now.

Ask around Europe, and you will find a number of countries envious of our continued upward trajectory. To speculate that we would somehow magically be better off if we set about deliberately stagnating the economy by starving business of talent, seems to me to be terminally perverse.

Thanks ManOfTheLand.

>>Pericles, Seems you have a fair crowd booting you in the ribs over this one. Could you do with a hand?<<

Fortunately they haven't actually managed to land one kick yet. But I appreciate the help.
Posted by Pericles, Wednesday, 21 November 2012 3:28:02 PM
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Divergence,
I read through the links you have provided and agree with the general gist. I feel however, that they actually ADD weight to my argument.
" 82% of migrants end up in a capital city, as opposed to 66% of Australian born people."

Precisely the problem. I agree whole heartedly that continuing to invest in infrastructure to accommodate more people in the cities is a bad idea.

"You may not be that aware of the problems in the cities, but the infrastructure/diseconomies of scale issue is very real, with, for example, expensive and electricity-hungry desalination plants being built because the cities have outgrown their natural water supplies and cannot guarantee supply in a bad drought."

Yes, I am painfully aware! Throughout Australia's development there has been a steady flow of wealth and resources out of regional Australia to fund this. That is the cruel irony of it. There are other good reasons for decentralising (I'm sure you will agree). Aside from the congestion, limiting resources etc, consider this. You could just about bring the entire country to its knees with only 4 bombs. A scary truth of our defensive vulnerability.
Aside from that, the reports you have provided largely assume that the growth in population will reflect historical growth. I don't deny the logic in this. After all, it has to be based on something. However, they do not take into account the possibilities of a fundamental shift in priorities.
Also, there are more than enough resources in northern Australia alone to accommodate increasing the population many times over. (Not that I advocate we do this in any great rush by the way)
Posted by ManOfTheLand, Wednesday, 21 November 2012 4:12:24 PM
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Here's some data that only mentions GDP twice...

First with "Total health spending accounted for 8.7% of GDP in Australia in 2008, lower than the average of 9.6% in OECD countries. However, Australia ranks above the OECD average in terms of total health spending per person."

And second with "Despite above average public expenditure on families, Australia spends less on childcare services than most OECD countries: 0.4% of GDP compared with the OECD average of 0.6%."

http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/australia/

Near the top under the Topics heading (beside the Economic Policy Reforms: Going for Growth 2012 - Australia Country Note) an interactive tool allows you to compare the better life indices with 35 other countries.

Pity about the 'Work-Life Balance' indicator, though I fail to see how a 'state need to intervene in population policies' could alter this.
Posted by WmTrevor, Wednesday, 21 November 2012 4:45:38 PM
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Pericles says “ they haven't actually managed to land one kick yet”

Now if that were true, how then did he come by the poor memory recall, inability to absorb facts and and severely bruised ego he’s been exhibiting for much of the latter half of the contest?

Divergence and Lugwig have had it all over Pericles when measured by arguments and facts.

Pericles has not got any solid arguments, nor kicks for that matter, but characteristically holds fast to the notion that if he can make the most noise he wins. Well sorry old chap it does not work that way and if this was a Queensbury Rules bout your corner would have thrown in the towel long ago.

Behind Pericles’s smoke screen, and it is just that a smoke screen, that our present level of immigration is just right is a deep antipathy for native born Australians. Yes he tries hard to hide it, but it keeps popping out, as in this generalization “they tend to do as all migrants before them have done…work that little bit harder”. He clearly has not ventured far west from his silvertail fortress of northern Sydney, for west of the harbour bridge many migrants have never worked.

He tells us to ask Europe what they think of our “upward trajectory” .Our trajectory has little to do with immigration and much more to do with the fact that we were blessed with whopping great mineral deposits and a nearby China market which will buy all we dig up. But that wont go on forever.

Incidentally, while you are asking Europe about their view of out “trajectory” also ask them about how they are faring with immigration. Greece has no jobs but lots and lots of immigrants and few prospects of stopping the inflow, DITTO Spain DITTO France.
Posted by KarlX, Wednesday, 21 November 2012 5:20:40 PM
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William Bourke of The Stable Population Party puts our infrastructure deficit at 770 billion dollars. Yet all states are largely broke and we keep pumping the people in like there's no tomorrow. So where's the money going to come from to fix this?

"Perth's bus and train patronage is exploding beyond expectations, putting pressure on the city's burgeoning public transport network.

In the first three months of this financial year, commuters took one million more train journeys (up 6.5 per cent) and 1.2 million more bus journeys (up 6.2 per cent) around Perth compared with the previous year."

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/15431281/commuter-surge-jams-transport-network/

Alternatively, allowing our population to stabilise would allow us to start catching up and incentivise investing in true productivity.
Posted by Matt Moran, Wednesday, 21 November 2012 6:15:26 PM
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But wait there's more:
Jobs shortage fears in WA – Australian Financial Review November 20
http://www.afr.com/p/national/jobs_shortage_fears_in_wa_1GOoOPFk6cBAZqmlV7FsmL

The West Australian Chamber of Minerals and Energy has warned of a looming surplus of unskilled and semi-skilled workers as the state’s resources boom shifts into a new phase.

CMEWA’s 2013 State Growth Outlook study, to be released on Monday, projects that the workforce for WA’s mining and energy sectors will peak at 125,000 in 2014 and then edge back as the current wave of construction projects moves into production.

The skills mix required by resources companies is expected to change as well, potentially leaving a large number of unskilled workers without employment.

“Unless there are some big new projects in the resources sector or other construction in WA, you’re going to have some pressure from people coming out of construction and finding it hard to get jobs,” CMEWA chief executive Reg Howard-Smith told The Australian Financial Review.

He said the labour market was already giving an indication of the future. While the number of jobs advertised for the resources sector was strong at about 4000 a week, there was a heavy bias towards professionals (70 per cent to 75 per cent) and “high-end” technical tradespeople (20 per cent to 25 per cent).

“The unskilled positions are still there,” he said. “But I think companies are finding they are more able to fill those from their own websites or from various agencies, rather than having to compete.”

Mr Howard-Smith said the study had taken into consideration recent decisions by companies such as BHP Billiton and Mitsubishi Corp to put major WA projects on hold.

He hoped there might be another one or two projects that had not been classified as under way or having a high degree of certainty that could add to the state’s pipeline of projects.

The study estimated that consumption of natural gas in WA would increase 47 per cent by 2018, with the Pilbara accounting for 70per cent of the requirement...
Posted by Matt Moran, Wednesday, 21 November 2012 6:17:18 PM
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