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The Forum > Article Comments > A short response to Robert Manne's A Dark Victory > Comments

A short response to Robert Manne's A Dark Victory : Comments

By Tim Florin, published 6/9/2012

Repetition of the oft-made assertion that there is scientific consensus about the cause of global warming does not make it true.

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Loudmouth, I don’t know why you expect to see acceleration of temperature increase over such a short period. Given the noise, you would likely need 60 or more years of data to identify acceleration of the rate of warming. Perhaps the important thing to take away from the short analysis I did is that the underlying rate of warming is still present despite the sceptics choosing to focus on the unusually warm 1998 as a starting point. There is no slowing of growth. The slope for the period from 1998 to 2011 is slightly higher than the rate for the preceding century.

The period from 1940 to 1970 cooled slightly because of several factors. Firstly, the heavy period of industrialisation with high sulphur emissions produced sulphur aerosols that scattered sunlight reducing the amount of energy reaching the Earth. Clean air acts enacted gradually reduced the amount of sulphur aerosols in the atmosphere. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GISSTemperature/giss_temperature4.php Secondly, volcanic eruptions, notably in 1963, had a cooling effect. http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-mid-20th-century.htm Thirdly, a relatively quiet El Nino period. http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/ElNino-LaNina/

There are many factors that impact on weather and whether this year was warmer than last year. The reason for a focus on CO2 is because it is not cyclical as most other factors are and it is long lasting.

Feel free to maintain your focus on the hole, Joe.
Posted by Agronomist, Monday, 10 September 2012 7:54:26 PM
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Well, Agronomist, what's a doughnut without the hole ?

So ....... the effects of CO2 are not cyclical .... if the next decade or two are colder/warmer or wetter/drier, AGW is responsible. If the Himalayan glaciers are to vanish by 2035, when roughly might we expect to see the end of skiing in the Australian Alps ? 2015 ? 2020 ? 2025 ? Roughly. [Sorry, cheap shot about Pajauri and glaciers - they're hard to avoid in CIA/sceptical/denialist circles].

Temperatures increased over the past 14 years at roughly the same annual or decadal rate as in the previous century - 0.84 degrees. There is no acceleration ? No exponential growth ?

Okay, I'll bite - WHY aren't we researching to find environmentally-friendly aerosols to pump into the atmosphere, and cool it, like what was happening in the fifties and sixties ? My god, I AM a dill !

And governments around the world - and capitalist chancers - are all sitting on their hands and watching it all happen ?

Thank you, Agronomist.

Cheers,

Joe
Posted by Loudmouth, Monday, 10 September 2012 8:58:25 PM
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