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Bernanke's cash can't fix political crisis : Comments
By Damian Karmelich, published 27/8/2012And just as politics has prevented Japan arising from its slumber so too it is politics that threatens the economic revival of the US and keeps the European Union on the brink of disaster.
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Posted by Arjay, Monday, 27 August 2012 5:49:52 PM
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Simply asserting the same things over again isn't particularly helpful, Geoff of Perth.
>>China's growth is not economic in real terms it is political... China's growth is a mirage<< I'm sorry, that is complete bull. On any measure, China's economy has been growing, much of it on the back of massive exports of manufactured goods. Or had this escaped your notice? What part of that immense inflow of currency is a mirage? >>China is very quietly changing their game plan. Gold is going to be a key in their strategy<< Yes. You mentioned that. But you are not being very clear about the impact of this change. >>...they will not give a hoot about European or US debt, nor their US holdings which will become irrelevant<< You are kidding. Banks in China operate in exactly the same way as ours. They most certainly "give a hoot" about the value of their international debt. Why would they not? They keep balance sheets, just like everyone else. >>China last reported gold reserves in 2002 (approx 550 tonnes), they will next report in 3-5 years and will shock the world with 5000+ tonnes<< Actually, according to the IMF, China reported reserves of 1054.1 tonnes in 2010. If they do get hold of another 4,000 tonnes by 2015 - which will cost them around $200 billion - they will be the proud owner of around a third as much as is held by the European Union. Or two thirds of what the US held in 2010. How does that make it a game-changer? China conducts business in the same manner as the rest of the world. The fact that their government is still actively managing their exchange rate in favour of their export trade is different to most other countries, but this is not on its own either a good or a bad thing. For one thing, it acts to keep a lid on the costs - i.e. the wages of the workers - and this can only last for a limited time. But you can forget about a gold standard. It won't happen. Posted by Pericles, Monday, 27 August 2012 6:56:32 PM
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Gold is only a good currency backer when the wheels are about to fall off.
We do not need precious metals to back money.Money is backed by our productivity.All that is needed is a proper constitution that ties money supply to productivity. Note that in the West inflation of approx 3% is nearly always the same as increases in productivity.Because our productivity gets expressed as debt by private banks,we need inflation to equal it, so there is enough money in the economy for it to function. We need a responsible body to control the supply of new money outside the parameters of private central banks and gold will be unnecesssary. Posted by Arjay, Monday, 27 August 2012 8:28:16 PM
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Pericles, I acknowledge the obvious research you have done to come up with the numbers you cite.
I would love to play a game of poker with you! If you think quoting the IMF has any substance, I think you are barking up the wrong tree. China has been producing gold at about ~350 tonnes per annum since 2002, I do not know the exact figure, China has been importing gold at a frenetic rate since 2008, it has also advised its people to invest in gold and silver, previously illegal. If you cannot understand the US, Europe, Japan and the west is insolvent, and that you can't fix a debt problem with debt/austerity, Austrian economics beside, then you are deluded. Growth as we know it in the 'west' is almost certainly over, the central banks of the US, Europe and the rest of the cartel are doing everything possible to prop up a completely failed system (model). China realised what they were doing (stimulus and growth at any cost) was bound to fail, but they are now on a different political path, if you understand the Chinese you will learn quickly this will mean a completely new paradigm. I do not have all the knowledge, answers or facts, if you dig deep enough, you can see that Australia is going to be in a lot of trouble financially in the very near future. If you are going to hedge a bet, it is always prudent to know your adversary, in our case, our (mainstream economists and politicians) have no idea what the Chinese are really up to. They and we are in for a rude shock. If you have super or investments I would recommend you seriously take a look at where your future lies and adjust accordingly. Plain and simple, but unfortunately the MSM will advise differently. Good luck if you think you can financially survive the Tsunami that is to come Geoff Posted by Geoff of Perth, Monday, 27 August 2012 8:33:58 PM
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Capitalism has reached its zenith. It now channels most of the worlds wealth to the benifit of 1% of the worlds populace. Bully for them, tough for the poverty stricken and dis-enfranchised billions of souls around the world who are left clutching at straws.
Inhumane as this situation is, it is also self defeating. The simple fact is that the more wealth channeled to the 1% the lower the spending power of the 99% and without that recycling of spending power both the marketplace and associated economy will collapse. But isn't this what has been happening? All the theorizing about monetary policy and market led economies will change nothing unless this basic fundamental is addressed. During the last 40 years the wests de-regulated economies have held off the inevitable day of reckoning by reaping the advantage of cheap product from the slave labour in disadvantaged communities around the world. The thin edge of this wedge is very close. China has benfited from the current global situation due to stable government, maintaining a high level of regulatary control and sound planning. An example from which the psuedo democracies could all learn. Den7 Posted by DEN71, Monday, 27 August 2012 9:40:14 PM
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I'm sure you would, Geoff of Perth.
>>I would love to play a game of poker with you!<< I'd be hopeless. I find it impossible to bluff. All that pretending that you have something that you don't. Not my speed, I'm afraid. >>China has been producing gold at about ~350 tonnes per annum since 2002, I do not know the exact figure...<< Sure you do, if you only bothered to look. Let me help with some current figures: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/china-gold-production-rises-10-y-o-y-to-808-tons-in-q1-48032-3-48033.html At this level, that equates to around 15% of the world's total production. And they are indeed rumoured to buy another 6,000 tonnes on the open market. http://www.mining.com/heard-the-rumour-china-is-buying-6000-tonnes-of-gold-it-may-not-be-as-crazy-as-it-sounds-11560/ None of which indicates that they would be crazy enough to attempt to fix their currency to gold. Don't forget that the essence of a gold standard is a fixed conversion rate - anything else is merely trading and speculating a commodity. All that their anticipated buying spree will achieve is an even higher gold price. It doesn't give them any particular advantage - let's say they hoard the world's supply of gold; who would they be able to trade with? >>If you cannot understand the US, Europe, Japan and the west is insolvent...<< You might like to work through the significance of what you wrote here. If these countries are insolvent, who will buy China's output? Take a look at China's balance of trade, and try to imagine what they would do if their export trade dried up. There is far more mutual dependency in the present financial situation than there is adversarial advantage to be gained. One of the benefits of centuries of world trade - like it or not, we're all in it together. >>...in our case, our (mainstream economists and politicians) have no idea what the Chinese are really up to<< To be frank, I'm not entirely sure that they know either. The world hasn't been in this situation before. You seem to believe this is some form of zero-sum game, where in order for one side to gain, the other has to lose. It doesn't work like that. Posted by Pericles, Monday, 27 August 2012 11:23:27 PM
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We do not need private central banks as they are parasites and a blight all all our humanity.