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The troubled path from dictator to democracy : Comments
By Julie Bishop, published 14/6/2012Overthrowing a dictator may transfer power to more radical and unpredictable elements that may be hostile to the interests of those countries supporting intervention.
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A key discussion point is whether external intervention, of any kind, is ever warranted, in any circumstances.
Faced with images of innocent bystanders, families and children being blown apart by extreme violence, the gut reaction is to find any and every way possible to stop it happening. But callous as it may sound, those images should not be a deciding factor.
External interference can so easily serve to exacerbate the problems. As a case in point, the French and Francophone African interventions in Rwanda were significant factors in increasing the already substantial tensions between Hutu and Tutsi. It is of course impossible to speculate whether the 1994 massacre of close to a million individuals would have happened anyway. But it is worth recalling that the faction supported by the French when the Rwanda Civil War broke out in 1990 were the Hutu. And it was the Hutu that later instigated the massacre.
One unknown is, or should be at least, how much the international intervention has already contributed to escalating the tensions, and therefore indirectly increasing the death toll in Syria.
Ms Bishop does at least, somewhat reluctantly, appear to acknowledge this possibility:
"While it is true that intervention can have uncertain results, and there are instances where it has been to the detriment of those it intended to protect, that does not mean all international intervention has failed."
But she still seems determined to portray the non-interventionists, Russia, China and Iran, as running interference...
"Russia, China and Iran are rapidly approaching a critical point where they must choose - the side of humanity or the side of the dictator?"
Gee, Ms Bishop. If only the choice were that simple.