Geoff of Perth, thanks for those great posts! Totally agree.

Yes, Peak Oil is a reality but where is it all heading to.

What is the answer to the Equation:

9 Billion people +1 planet + no Oil = ?

The most likely answer based on current economic rationale is:

9 Billion people + 1 Planet + Peak Oil=

1) Lots of wars
2} No OIL left for transport options
3) Rampaging murder Rwanda style, no petrol means a hammer to the head is the most cost-effective method of controlling the masses. Way cheaper than elections!
4} My personal fortune will treble on the back of arms sales

5) Bring it on!

Summary:

9 Billion people + 1 Planet =

2 Billion people + me & a few thousand ultra rich buddies + no endangered species to impede development + reinstigation of SLAVERY which made this nation great from the getgo.

Hoo Yeah!

Curmudgeon,

It is an interesting point that you bring up about the flattening production figures being due to a lack of investment from OPEC. While widely reported in economic circles that OPEC has a bad track record in investing in the future the actual data paints a different picture. This figure http://greenecon.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/opec.jpg shows that the OPEC rig count steadily climbed between 1999 and 2008 although this resulted in only a small increase in production figures that would suggest that the new rigs being drilled were not producing as much oil as previous rigs.

It's an issue I need to look at more in depth when I have the time but thanks for raising it.

Rhrosty,

Personally I have some hope for algal biofuels. Currently however they produce less than 1% of the global fuel demand so they have an extremely long way to go before they can make any real impact so I'm not counting on it. The infrastructure restraints are immense.

People who believe they OWN this planet for the sole benefit of themselves and their descendants NEED secrets lies and fictions to live within the inevitable contradictions.

Hence we have fools who believe in low grade alternative energy strategies, climate science and all manner of ways to overcome Peak Oil so long as you can prove the Second Law of Thermodynamics is a fraud.

EG Oil from algae? You'd need millions of acres and need all the oil left on the planet to tend and harvest and process the bloody stuff. Numbnuts!

Discussions of the potential of renewable energy sources usually do not take into account the need to convert energy from forms that are available to forms that are needed, or can be stored.

This would not be relevant if large scale direct storage of electricity was available.

Conversion is typically quite energy inefficient, meaning much more primary energy needs to be generated than might appear to be the case.

For instance fuelling transport by hydrogen produced from electricity would require generation of about four times the amount of energy that is delivered to the vehicle (train, truck, car etc).

Care needs to be taken when considering losses from electrolysis, compression, pumping and distribution.

Similarly, when hydrogen is used as an energy store for later conversion to electricity via fuel cells, a further .4 or .5 efficiency reduction factor would apply.

In some cases, given current maturity of existing renewable energy sources if the embodied energy cost of all equipment was deducted it is possible that there would be no net energy return, making many current assumptions about the potential of renewable energy somewhat overly optimistic.

I suspect that ‘algae to oil’ will continue to grow and develop but it is quite possible the energy traps outlined above may play some limiting role on these touted future energy solutions