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The Forum > Article Comments > The heart of Australia: tracking the centre of our population > Comments

The heart of Australia: tracking the centre of our population : Comments

By Mark McCrindle, published 20/4/2012

Australia is heading north-west.

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Mmmmm.. the article makes no mention of the increasing death rates, the peaking emigration or any real data projection.
Well in the next 25 years our death rates double and our natural growth may drop to zero or even negative.
1/3 our our growth in real numbers is our demographic momentum, or more people living longer, so focusing just on net migration or biths is just plain nuts.
By my claculation we will peak at approx 28 million by around 2035 and then start to decline. Having our fertility rate below replacemnet for the last 35 years and having an ageing nation that turns anti-immigration will ensure this happens.
Posted by dempografix, Friday, 20 April 2012 5:46:19 PM
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Cheryl

People are a wonderful asset, but what allows the human asset to realise his full potential is infrastructure and education. Without such, all those valuable humans can only aspire to Pol Pot's agrarian dream.

Places like Kerala demonstrate that a nation's prosperity is derived primarily from the development of the human asset, not its mass production. People are more than industrial fodder.
Posted by Fester, Friday, 20 April 2012 7:12:26 PM
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All I was saying Boyszone, was that the anti-people lobby needs to brush up on economics before they talk about productivity, trade, technology and almost anything to do with the operation of the modern state and the global economy.

The anti-people faction are very weak on biology but strong on sociobiology and all of its intrumentalist aspects. They conveniently ignore that global population will start to fall in 2050 and will settle at between 6-7 billion people. It's an inconvenient truth.

They ignore the fact that population growth in most western nations is slowing and in Europe, Russia and America, the combination of an ageing population and smaller age cohorts born in the 80s, 90s and 00s is creating major problems for organisations and economies.

Their remedy for everything is less people, like me and you. If your cat is stuck up a tree - it's over population. Got a flat tyre? Over population. Poor marks at school? Too many people!

This is single lens theory in action. Their prescription for everything? Less people. Less people like your family. Less people like your neighbours. It's a recipe born from hatred.

The anti-people lobby are eco-fascists and proud of it. They don't care a fat rats for mineral resources - they wouldn't know a smelter if they fell over it. They live in comfy houses in Adelaide with trendy postcodes. They are a club of mental club foots.

Their manifesto is based on a hatred of people and I suspect a hatred of women. They want to save us from the apocalypse (they like those) by getting rid of the people.
Posted by Cheryl, Friday, 20 April 2012 7:20:20 PM
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"They conveniently ignore that global population will start to fall in 2050 and will settle at between 6-7 billion people. It's an inconvenient truth."

References please Cheryl dear!

All the estimates coming from the UN are for a global population of 9-10 billion by 2050.

So what the hell are you basing your estimates on?

"They ignore the fact that population growth in most western nations is slowing and in Europe, Russia and America, the combination of an ageing population and smaller age cohorts born in the 80s, 90s and 00s is creating major problems for organisations and economies."

Well then Cheryl dear, why are folks from you camp arguing that Australia's population will grow to 30 million or so even if we have zero immigration from now on and that Australia has no choice but to plan for population growth?

Seems like you folks are so desperate to get your way that you roll out polar opposite arguments when you consider them convenient to furthering your own self interests.
Posted by Boylesy, Friday, 20 April 2012 7:48:51 PM
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Their remedy for everything is less people, like me and you. If your cat is stuck up a tree - it's over population. Got a flat tyre? Over population. Poor marks at school? Too many people!

"This is single lens theory in action. Their prescription for everything? Less people. Less people like your family. Less people like your neighbours. It's a recipe born from hatred."

Actually more densely packed people means more competition for limited resources and service, more tension and more hatred.

Less people means less competition, less tension and less hatred.

Limiting population is a people friendly, community friendly and civilisation friendly initiative.

Increased population also pushed up prices particularly for water, electricity, property and rent as we are discovering the hard way at present.

It pushes inflation and cost of living up for the vast majority of people, except of course you are one of the minority who own a large porfolio of investment properties!

"The anti-people lobby are eco-fascists and proud of it. They don't care a fat rats for mineral resources"
No I don't because it in no way benefits me tangibly and in fact just pushes up the cost of living for me. So no, I would give a fat rats if the mining sector imploded tomorrow!

"They live in comfy houses in Adelaide with trendy postcodes. They are a club of mental club foots."
I think you are confusing us with the minority of mining magnates who live in comfy houses in trendy postcodes as the dollars roll in from their mines.

"Their manifesto is based on a hatred of people and I suspect a hatred of women. They want to save us from the apocalypse (they like those) by getting rid of the people."
No one wants to get rid of people Cheryl dear, they just don't want morons like you encouraging population growth solely to increase the value of your investment property portfoli at our expense!
Posted by Boylesy, Friday, 20 April 2012 7:59:42 PM
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Ok, it seems some here need a lesson in demographics.

On an island the birth rate is 2.1 (replacemnet) and the population is 60,000 and everyone dies at 60. Now, for some reason the age of death increases to 100 and the birth rate stays the same. Guess what happens to the population? Really not understanding the basics of demography is a falw for most.

Cheryl is quite correct as many long range UN projections have the global population at 3 billion by 2100. The fertility rate has decline not only in Western countries but also sub Africa quite dramatically and the global population growth rate has been decreasing for some time. Do some study, wise up and understand the actual data.
Posted by dempografix, Friday, 20 April 2012 8:12:41 PM
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