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The Forum > Article Comments > Peak oil moves to the mainstream > Comments

Peak oil moves to the mainstream : Comments

By Michael Lardelli, published 13/2/2012

Australia Day marked the date when the world's scientific community finally took peak oil seriously.

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Bazz that is pretty good spin there mate.

The reason for the slowdown in exploitation of shale gas is the huge glut that has developed as too many companies flooded the market, before it developed to absorb the bonanza.

Once the chemical industries catch up, & start to use the stuff as feed stock, just watch the price rocket.

Meanwhile home hearing is available at prices not seen in a couple of decades, & even the price of electricity is dropping.

You're living in a fools world if you think the gas is not extremely cheep to harvest, & your reference said as much.
Posted by Hasbeen, Monday, 13 February 2012 2:25:46 PM
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Michael in Adelaide. I think that is a very useful comment. I claim no expertise in oil production estimates, flows etc but my son in an expert. He tells me that the world is in no danger of running out of oil any time soon, provided, and it is a big if, we are prepared to pay the costs of extraction. Unless we find feasible alternatives to oil, which is highly unlikely in the forseeable future, we are going to have to be prepared to pay a significantly higher cost.

What I found more interesting in the article is the fact that Labor and the Coaliiton have twice united to suppress debate on the topic and suppressed an important (now leaked) analysis. Do they so little trust our intelligence that this issue joins a long list of others that dare not be aired for fear that it might give rise to awkward questions.
Posted by James O'Neill, Monday, 13 February 2012 2:30:17 PM
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Hasbeen,
Well thats the catch, it is cheap, but the enormous investment
needed to get a transition to CNG for other than power stations.
I wouldn't know what percentage of chemical plants use Nat Gas now but
I suspect it would be quite high.
As you said it is cheap to harvest once you get it but the depletion
rate spoils the fun. The big fuel need is for transportation systems
as that need is so much bigger than all else.
The ERoEI goes down as soon as you start compressing it for cars and
trucks and the refit of all service stations would be a massive cost.
The transport would need a lot more tankers than petrol tankers.
Not as bad as hydrogen but still significant.

I think it should be kept for industrial process heating and
electricity generation, fertiliser production and plastics.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 13 February 2012 3:42:51 PM
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The kiwis been on the CNG since the late 70,s, Fill er up at home.
CNG good for the atmosphere, best not tell hasbeen.
Posted by 579, Monday, 13 February 2012 4:09:30 PM
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This is an important article and further research from those doubting its varacity would be worthwhile.

Where people fail to join the dots relates to our economic way of life. First world countries, and those aspiring to our way of life, depend on a growth economy. We use fractional reserve banking which means all money (whether real or electronic) is created (lent) into the system as credit (really debt) at interest. This requires a growing economy, estimated to be at least 3% per annum, to remain functional and provide the growing goods and services.

Concurrently you must have cheap energy to maintain this system, i.e. energy inputs must remain below a certain level of GDP or they cause economic (and the resultant social) chaos. Following the oil spike in July 2008 ($147 per barrel) the economic crisis unfolded, the sub-prime mortgage issue in the U.S. was just the match that lit the fuse.

Cheap oil is the key driver for economic success, yes the low hanging fruit is gone, now we are exploiting the deep ocean oil and the less refinable oil remaining elsewhere. This scenario guarantees higher oil prices.

Alternative do not have the EROEI of oil, nor do touted other future energy resources hold much sway for the future. Get ready for a much greater constrained world moving forward.

I you can't grow some of your own food now, I would suggest you start to learn how or at the very least teach your children, they are going to need these skills in the future.
Posted by Geoff of Perth, Monday, 13 February 2012 4:10:39 PM
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There is no energy shortage.The elites just want to monopolise the supply.Peak oil is like Global Warming,very exaggerated.There are plenty of alternatives to oil.We have enough coal for 200 yrs and new technology will fill the gap, ie cold fusion.

Both AGW and peak Oil are alarmist agendas being used to subjugate the masses.
Posted by Arjay, Monday, 13 February 2012 4:45:59 PM
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