A well-researched article, Chris. You raise some good points. Without venturing to disagree, I’d observe that you’ve taken a very much ‘glass half-empty’ stance on China. I wonder if the ‘glass half-full’ position doesn’t also have merit.

Back in 1976, China was only just winding up the Cultural Revolution. The country was hungry, exhausted, and technologically backwards. Schools taught Mao Thought, not reading or maths. Tens of millions had died. The Red Guards had been particularly fierce on ‘intellectuals’: those with skills and education. Economically, politically, and ethically, China was a basket case. And any Chinese who suggested so was doomed.

Fast forward a few decades, and -- mirabile dictu -- China has discovered capitalism. They’ve become self-sufficient in many areas, net exporters in others. Rigid state control has been replaced by a complex patchwork of local initiatives. From the Great Famine of the 1960s, they’ve dramatically lifted the standard of living of their people. Tienamen Square MAY have bgeen the last desperate gasp of a failing authoritarian episteme.

The Chinese economy is plagued by corruption, of course. The nomenklatura suck blood from those with initiative, the poor and powerless are displaced, ignored, abused. Still, they’re better off than at any time in their history. The so-called Western World endured similar periods; our current rights emerged, for the most part in the 20th century; China’s may be blossoming soon. The authoritarian One Child Policy is obsolete; China now faces the very Western challenge of supporting an ageing population with fecundity at below replacement rates.

Perhaps most importantly, China now has skin in the game. Economic crises in the EU and US are bad for Chinese exports; the Red Tide is ebbing. War would be bad for business. China in 2011 is doing what Japan did in the 1950s/60s: joining the global marketplace, and learning how to prosper from peace.

Which guarantees absolutely nothing, of course. Still, you ask ‘How long can Western nations ... afford to accept the rise of authoritarian China?‘ I’d say: as long as it takes for them to become like us.