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The Forum > Article Comments > Deteriorating economic outlook for North Atlantic economies > Comments

Deteriorating economic outlook for North Atlantic economies : Comments

By Saul Eslake, published 15/9/2011

It's looking like a chilly economic winter and beyond for Europe.

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Saul you just don't get it do you? Keynesian economics is a complete failure and no matter what central banks and governments do, things will continue to get worse. The U.S. never got out of the GFC recession (my take, really a depression) and its basis for stating it did are based on false data that has been manipulated to show that things have improved.

If you look at real data, jobs, both permanent and part-time have been in decline in the U.S since 2007, housing continues to decline and will never, repeat, never recover, there is too much debt and forcing more debt never solves any problems. Government spending will not save the day, growth is waning globally and with our key finite resources (see oil) now in terminal decline, economic growth as sprouted by all governments and economists can't go on.

Europe is a basket case waiting to blow and once it does it will follow the U.S. to the bottom of the pit. Demand destruction in these two areas will have a massive impact on China (which by the way is a powder keg of its own making) as the U.S and Europe are China's two biggest markets. Once this occurs China will not be importing the resources from Australia in any where near the same levels as current. Australia is a bit player in a game of Russion Roulette and we will lose like everyone else.

Get used to the bade news, it's not going to get better and the sooner main stream economists and governments realise this the better.

Growth will never return to pre 2007 levels, its down from here on it, get used to it and learn to adapt.
Posted by Geoff of Perth, Thursday, 15 September 2011 1:36:14 PM
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Peter H,
Is it wrong to assume it is still government duty to develop infrastructure to allow productive business to generate wealth for people and the nation?
Why just stimulate lending institutions? There is need for adequate cash at the bottom of the economy in order for consumers to spend, including to repay mortgages.
Should it be assumed a modern day carbon tax is the best way to provide government with revenue?
If Australians were not so dumbed down it would be seen the whole ocean of this planet is nearly empty of food and that world food supply is therefore now unsustainable, and that alternative affordable food production and supply should be the priority.
Why was fish removed from the CPI
Posted by JF Aus, Thursday, 15 September 2011 5:32:49 PM
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"Is it wrong to assume it is still government duty to develop infrastructure to allow productive business to generate wealth for people and the nation?"

I think that's a good question, which should be answered in the negative for several reasons, but before I show reason why, could you please let me know what you say is the definitive difference between infrastructure and other capital goods?

"Why just stimulate lending institutions?"

That assumes we (translation: the state) should.

" There is need for adequate cash at the bottom of the economy in order for consumers to spend, including to repay mortgages."

A need decided by whom?
Cash that government will get from ... a moonbeam?
Is there some fountain of cash somewhere that we can just drain for purposes of creating net social utility? Oh goodie.

"Should it be assumed a modern day carbon tax is the best way to provide government with revenue?"

Didn't see that one coming. That was way left field.

"... that world food supply is therefore now unsustainable, and that alternative affordable food production and supply should be the priority..."
If it's true that government can be presumed to produce food better than the private sector, what did you have in mind ... the collectivisation of agriculture
Posted by Peter Hume, Thursday, 15 September 2011 6:12:09 PM
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I think Saul and the other Keynesians have finally realised that the system is stuffed.We are in another great depression caused basically by the US Federal Reserve.This is why Ron Paul wrote the book called,'End the Fed'

Private Central Banks do not have a god given right to create from nothing all the money to equal out increases in productivity and inflation as debt.They have stolen all our money and created the worthless derivative bubble which they continue to inflate via their "quantative sleazing" Yes Saul,they are delaying the inevitable and making the ultimate collapse even bigger.

Google Prof Michael Hudson.He knows the economic reality.
Posted by Arjay, Thursday, 15 September 2011 7:37:53 PM
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Peter H,

I think a relative definitive difference between infrastructure and capital goods can be understood by comparing a new national Australia water harvesting and delivery system compared to imported wind farm generators.

Some lending institutions were impacted by the shortage of cash caused by economic downturn beyond their or their customers control,
so stimulus was perhaps due to avert collapse and chaos.

Need for adequate cash at the bottom of the now two or three tier economy is yet to be understood by economists, as needed. The dumbing down is obstructing new information and delaying development of knowledge, including from reaching understanding of economists.

A moonbeam? No. There is need for international fiscal policy to adapt to present day influence presently unseen. For example (you) economists do not know the cause of what is described as the world economic crisis, the 'meltdown'.

Obviously government does not drive the tractors but government does now declare who gets to own the water and at what cost to the private sector and eventually food consumers. Food is now reaching a cost unaffordable to more and more people. Unsustainable economics.

That water trading caper is a bit nifty is it not, a "moonbeam" spike into the food economy for government to raise revenue. Similar to carbon tax and GST.

I do understand governments require new sources of revenue, especially for example to offset downturn in nicotine drug sale revenue. But surely new revenue should come from new productivity, that for example new reliable water infrastructure could develop.

The $30 plus billion NBN will allow doctors face to face consultation with patients but what will it produce food or manufactured goods for local consumption and export? Where is the optic fibre cable manufactured?

Meanwhile government is selling the farm to aware offshore interests, $200 million plus property excluded. Really, how many properties are worth 200 million? Moonbean economic advice perhaps, like carbon warming the planet.

Someone please answer.

Why has AGW climate and aka carbon tax science not measured and assessed the photosynthetic warmth aspect of sewage nutrient proliferated micro algae warming the ocean?
Posted by JF Aus, Friday, 16 September 2011 6:00:10 PM
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JF Aus.The main reason for Govts requiring increases in taxes is to service debt to private banks.When we sold off all our Govt banks that used to create from nothing some of the money for increases in growth+ population + inflation,our Govts had to increase taxes to pay for debt to private banks.Private Banks always had most of this power,now they have all of the power.

Greed is not good,nor is this present cartel power of the finance system.
Posted by Arjay, Saturday, 17 September 2011 12:16:16 AM
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