Planetagent,
I suspect that (unlike me) you have never lived in a dictatorship. You are being naive if you think that Taiwanese people would be willing to merge with the PRC while that country remains under the rule of the Communist Party. I can't think of any examples in history where a people living in a stable economically prosperous democracy surrendered their freedoms to live under a dictatorship. Such a merger could only occur were the Communist Party in China to be overthrown.

China is a complex of huge forces each following a different path. Occasionally they may intersect or run parallel, but not as a rule. One of the biggest mistakes we often make from the outside is to think of the forces as linear and to approach China in our usual linear way. China is not simply a colossal machine controlled by a single-minded dictator with a clear goal.

The individual enterprise of ordinary shopkeepers, taxi-drivers, teachers and professionals in China is gigantic. The economic liberty that has grown since Deng Xiao Ping's "opening up" has unleashed a drive that cannot be switched off by a finger on a button in Beijing. "Opening up" is one pillar, and its twin is "Communism with Chinese characteristics". Perhaps pillar is the wrong word because they are not static factors: as the economy continues to modify and grow, so the nature of the government and its operations must progressively adapt and mutate. This has been happening and is likely to proceed in the future.

China has huge problems with the feeding, clothing and education of its 1.3 billion people. Development of an effective national health system is another pre-occupation. There are strong tensions between ethnic and regional groups and government, fast-growing religious affiliations straining for legitimacy, and an urgent need to simply get the country using the same language effectively. The one-child policy has been successful in easing the overall population-pressure, but replaces it with new social problems -- ageing, male-female imbalance, and possibly generations of "little emperors" who expect to get their own way in all things.

I could go on, but wordage prevents me. After living and working in China last year, I returned convinced that the country had far too much to worry about without getting into a war or international power struggles. China has been dealing effectively with many of its gravest problems. It will continue to move towards greater freedom, health and prosperity with understanding and encouragement from countries like Australia.

Grey

I don't think China would wish to wage a war, potentially involving a regional nuclear exchange with a (the) superpower, in the next 10 years.

Any scenerio that China could succeesfully launch a conventional surprise invasion, thus achieving a fait accompli, also seems difficult to imagine.

Rogindon

Its sad if you suffered under a dictatorship - but that shouldn't (and doesn't) prevent the majority of OLO posters (who haven't suffered like this) from discussing dictatorships.

As Crabby says China is complex and in state of flux.

Its no longer simply a the "Red Menace" or "Yellow Peril".

China may become less communist and freer market or it may have a "Tianmin Square" reversion, who knows.

My main point is China appears to be getting closer economically to Taiwan - increasing bilateral trade, some trade barriers are dropping and more are living in each others country.

Over 30 years these economic and demographic shifts may lead to some type of political union.

I'm glad that people are talking about the exaggerated attention being paid to China. We would be better off putting more effort into developing trade with our fellow Commonwealth members in democratic India. We should also be more prepared to stick our necks out to support Taiwan. Favouring dictatorships over democracies is not a good move.

Some scholar said that want to know or study China must take the stance with Chinese mood.Maybe China just want to be master her region rather than a expansionist.Maybe she just assert her deserving ownness.