Mr Windy "If you want to blame anything for over population then you should look to agriculture which arose several thousand years ago."

imho one significant contributor to over population is modern medicines and medical / health practices.

With the introduction of modern medicine and pharmecueticals plus piped sewers, we (the western developed world) has worked hard at eliminating those things which as on population numbers as "balance factors", This success being reflected in reduced infant mortality rates and extended life expectancy.

These products and medical skills (albeit sewers were popular in a few places in the ancient world) have been exported around the world to places where womens awareness and position in societies is subordinate to a paternalistic / religious authority which see its continuation as being protected by large numbers of offspring.

Agriculture and cheap food is a contributory influence but I doubt it has been as significant as the medicines and hygiene practices

*and the much steeper increase in developing countries' populations is a direct effect of capitalist exploitation.*

Not so Squeers, they simply used to starve, which kept the population
in check. Then we started sending them boatloads of food, plane
loads of vaccines and of course they did what people do. We just
forgot the family planning, the dear old Catholic Church made
sure of that. What we did do wrong was to try and shove our
religion down their throats, one way or another.

Col

I completely disagree that modern medicine is responsible. Let's not forget that the benefits of modern medicine are mostly for the developed world. And considering that contraception is one of the plethora of treatments available, not only do people enjoy a far better quality of life, but the Malthusian curse has been lifted.

Fester "but the Malthusian curse has been lifted."

What makes you so sure of that?

David

"Malthusian curse"

The Malthusian curse was merely delayed and is now imminent!

"imho one significant contributor to over population is modern medicines and medical / health practices"

Very clearly the major western contribution to over population in developing countries. Indeed underpinned by western christian ideology.

Fester “I completely disagree that modern medicine is responsible.”

http://www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/tools/data-visualization/neonatal-postneonatal-childhood-and-under-5-mortality-rates-country-globa-0

1970 to 2010 child mortality rates have dropped significantly.

(although the above would be contradicted for Kenya by the following
http://users.ictp.it/~eee/files/mutunga1.pdf
but for whatever reason, I doubt the latter in favour of the former because the former is worldwide, not parochial.

I believe there could be 3 causes

I suggested two causes:

Improved medications (including for children)
Improved hygiene

Improved food supplies – which is something I think Mr Windy brought up but which I do not think is that significant but I would, on reflection, not discount it completely.. maybe not so much food supply but food diet/quality, again developed from improved knowledge

(which is strangely ignored in some developed counties - where high fat diets are reducing average life expectancy)

What else would you suggest?

The rate of decline is only over 40 years… compare that line to a 200 year analysis is what we really need… as supplied in http://charleskenny.blogs.com/weblog/files/histinf.pdf

150 years of comparison and a rate of 200 per thousand in 1850 down to 50 in 2000 world wide.

Longevity
USA 1900 average age at death was 50
USA 1900 average age at death was around 73
But what produces increases in longevity is the elimination of diseases and maladies which cause death, including cures for cancers and surgery for heart problems etc. things which did not exist 50 years ago

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy
is more general and goes back longer but the trend is upward

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/human_pop/human_pop.html
this is interesting

note I originally did suggest "hygiene"

this article highlights improvements due to

1800 – use of soap (hygiene)

1870 – improved sanitation (sewers) = (hygiene)

1980 ish – modern medicines and antibiotics….

Fester, I think my research support my original post