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The Forum > Article Comments > Why Labor can win the next election, but probably won't > Comments

Why Labor can win the next election, but probably won't : Comments

By Kieran Fitzgerald, published 3/6/2011

If the Gillard government can beat itself, it might just win.

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So an unnecessary tax, designed to solve an imaginary problem, most of which is (purportedly) to be returned to the payers minus the ATO's commission for collecting it, and which is spruiked to the battlers by a glamorous non-resident millionaire at the taxpayer's expense, is not polling well?

Who would have thought it?
Posted by Jon J, Friday, 3 June 2011 7:19:28 AM
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Why Labor can win the next election, but probably won't: talk about hedging your bets.

However the article makes the widely accepted point that democratic governments generally rise and fall on the economic state of the country. Australia has been in very benign times: Low unemployment (4.8%), good growth (3%) and very favourable terms of trade. Unfortunately the Labor Government has been a woeful economic manager. In 2006 in similar economic conditions the Federal Government achieved a $16 billion surplus. Now it is running at a predicted $49 billion deficit.

Also Australia has been running on an investment boom. However the policies of this government such as the introduction of a mining and carbon taxes are already causing this to unravel. In two years Australia has slipped from first to fifth place as a target for Chinese investment. See the article Is Australia in danger of biting the Chinese hand that feeds it?
John Garnaut May 31, 2011 in the Sydney Morning Herald.

Besides the promise not to introduce a carbon tax, there is another critical promise made by the Gillard Government which is return the budget to surplus by 2013. There is fat chance that will happen. As Wyatt Roy said Labor has never produced a surplus in his lifetime and it never will. As the good economic fortunes of Australia begin to unravel (it is already happening) wait for the Labor excuses that it is extraneous factors. Abbott is going a have a field day.
Posted by EQ, Friday, 3 June 2011 7:45:15 AM
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If Labor gets re-elected then the proof that most voters in Australia only think for themselves is in the bag.
Posted by individual, Friday, 3 June 2011 8:17:06 AM
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Interesting Kieran, but you missed a couple of points many voters have not.

How, in such good times, can this government get us into so much debt, & how can we have such a huge welfare bill?

God help us if this incompetent lot are still there when things get a bit difficult financially.
Posted by Hasbeen, Friday, 3 June 2011 9:53:56 AM
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Dear Kieran, it is a pleasure to host visitors from outer space to our humble planet OLO.

Our observations might be a little different to yours but we do understand your trauma.

Our government is of course, deeply flawed. It is a composite that was assembled by gluing a number of “opposite components” together. Politically, attraction of these components works exactly the reverse to magnetic attraction. Our politically different “poles” actually “repel”.

As the glue that holds them together weakens with age and stress, we are seeing significant structural failures emerge. Of further concern is the “cross contamination” of the component parts as ideological molecules migrate across from component to component. This is causing cracks to also appear within each of the component parts as political heat is generated.

The resources consumed by this political entity just to hold it together are preventing it from performing to specification, which in turn generates even more political heat.

Our prognosis is for catastrophic structural failure and visitors from other perspectives are cautioned to maintain safe distances. Predictions are supported by similar, if not identical failures in the entity know as ALP NSW, which resulted in heavy casualties.

We trust you enjoy you visit to our reality
Posted by spindoc, Friday, 3 June 2011 10:27:53 AM
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Thanks Spindoc:

... I think you have what is missing in Government, imagination.
Posted by diver dan, Friday, 3 June 2011 7:15:12 PM
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Keiran didn't watch question time on Thursday.

If he did he'd know that on Wednesday Julia left the chamber throwing her arms up and telling an adviser 'She's over it'. He'd have heard Hockey pointedly tell Combat, after Combet interjected, while deputising for an again absent Julia, that 'in three weeks it's all yours', (The anniversary of Kevvys knifing). He'd have seen Shorten acting like a PM and Julia departing the house soon after. He'd have seen Abbott's successful attack on Labor's safest seats and he'd witness and undertsand the effects in the media on startled Labor Members. He'd have realised the Government is just holding on after Abbott proposed motions of Confidence IN the Speaker after he'd lost the House's confidednce when Oakshott refused to vote to support Government motions. He see that Kevvy's gone into hiding and is awaiting Julia's demise. Kevvy'll see that and then really sink the boot into her and the Labor Party. (Julia's seat is one of those Abbott is likel)y to win with his workers friend campaign.)

Kevvy will resign.

Abbott will move a motion of confidence in Jenkins, and even without the now irrelevant independants( No wonder Oakshott is belatedly showing a shifting allegiance.) will have a majority of one on the floor and will be asked by the new PM/Deputy pm's mother-in-law to form a new Government. (As the rules require.)

Four PM's in one year, three unelected! Rudd, Gillard, Shorten/Combet and finally Abbott. When Abbott eventually goes to the polls, it
will be acknowledged Labor's caused this fiasco, they'll be slaughtered and it will never be forgotten.

Now there is the senario Canberra's left media isn't reporting on and why the Government will change without an election being needed.

Jeez why are our media and various spruikers so single minded and think in the square idiots.
Posted by imajulianutter, Saturday, 4 June 2011 2:57:44 PM
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Arthur Schopenhauer once said, "All truth passes through 3 stages -
first, it is ridiculed. Second it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident."

So it shall be with a price on carbon. So it shall be with our investing in renewable sources of energy and new technologies. So it shall be with the NBN. Despite fear-mongering - we shall at some time finally realize that worrying about the cost is ridiculous. We will do what is necessary if we want to be taken seriously as a country of note in the modern world and a people to be reckoned with.

The Sydney Opera House was a budgeting disaster - yet how much tourism cash and overseas attention has it attracted.

As for Labor losing the next election? I wouldn't bet on that just yet. Tony Abbott will become the Mark Latham of the Libs and implode in a fiery ball of crazy. Just look at the worried faces of people like Joe Hockey, Brandis, Turnbull during Question-Time. How long will it be before they realize that the guy is unelectable. The polls suggest not long.
Posted by Lexi, Saturday, 4 June 2011 4:42:41 PM
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I think my point was Abbott won't have to face an election to become PM... all he has to do is have the numbers on the floor of Parliament.

And I think he's got those in the bag ... now. Oakshott isn't voting with the Government at the moment.. Haven't you noticed that?

That's why Jenkins needed 2 votes of confidence in himself as Speaker this week. Both were proposed by Abbott, Gillard couldn't propose them simply because she hadn't the numbers. Abbott has them.

Isn't waiting for Abbott to implode what Labor has been waiting on for nearly two years and one federal election already? Abbott's shown he's not going to do that and if you had seen his performance on Friday you'd know he knows he's the next PM after the fill in Shorten/Combet.
Posted by imajulianutter, Saturday, 4 June 2011 9:42:10 PM
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I doubt if Australians will vote Tony Abbott in as Prime Minister no matter how many times some die hard Liberal supporter may wish it would happen. Most Australians are not that greedy or stupid. They will not support the destruction of Australia for the greater profit of the most mega industries that are turning African countries into waste lands and rotting heaps. Tony Abbott has said mining companies should not have to pay tax, he said workers rights are negotiable and now he says he will not get polluters to reduce emissions and any compensation that taxpayers get from Labor will have to be refunded if he gets into office. That man simply does not cut the mustard.
Now Turnbull on the other hand ...
Posted by Lexi, Sunday, 5 June 2011 11:08:20 AM
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Hi Lexi:

"Arthur Schopenhauer once said, "All truth passes through 3 stages -
first, it is ridiculed. Second it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." So it shall be with a price on carbon. "

Ah yes -- "They laughed at Galileo! They laughed at Einstein!"

The trouble is, they laughed much harder at Bozo the Clown.
Posted by Jon J, Monday, 6 June 2011 7:37:43 AM
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Lexi, I thought your post re the 3 stages of truth must have been about how Abbott will be accepted as PM, & then rival Howard for time in the job.

How anyone could be considered as unelectable, after a look at what we have in place at the moment, is a bit hard to see. Surely, right now, the only possible way is up.
Posted by Hasbeen, Monday, 6 June 2011 12:09:02 PM
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'if we want to be taken seriously as a country of note in the modern world and a people to be reckoned with. '

Who says we are? We never have been before. We aren't now. My god some people are delusional. Who even says we want to be?

We're a mine and a bunch of backward red-necks. Nice weather. That's about it.

People are still excited about westernised Thai food for god's sake.
Posted by Houellebecq, Tuesday, 7 June 2011 9:03:10 AM
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