Master popnperish
Correct, below replacement levels, however the TFR did not really allow for the massive delay in giving birth, so always be wary of the TFR.

Our emigration is peaking and hitting historical higs as appox 87,000 aussies left permanently last year, with the largest grouop 25 to 35 year olds. 1000 skilled people per week! So lower immigration with rising emigration is having a double whammy effect.

But wait, there is more....
Since 2006 our international students, who all must now go home or apply for a skilled migration visa which is getting harder to get, and have been here for 12 months, are included in our ABS population growth percentage. Mad as... as students numbers drop 20% and the ponzi international student population growth scheme comes apart. It is now.

Oh, and our deaths rates double in the next 15 years, so our natural growth may decline to neutral or worse....that all depends on our generaalk fertility rate.

Dick should research emigration from Australia on the Dept site....

Hi Dick, welcome back, it’s been a long time between posts.

We have a syndrome in the socio-political spheres in the developed world. This syndrome requires that we the public, either believe in what we are told or we are skeptical. It seems that all debates are now divisive and vexatious. Sustainable population has unfortunately fallen victim to this syndrome.

There are those who have a public profile and are fortunate enough to have a voice in such debates. These “voices” include politicians, academics, media, expert “opinion” makers, NGO’s and lastly, your category, celebrities.

This syndrome was not widely observed until perhaps the last two years as the CAGW advocacy block began to crumble following Climategate. The advocacy “voices” are now screaming at fever pitch as they re-proselytize their advocacy for a rapidly crumbling phenomenon.

The problem for all debates now is the public perception that there are indeed at least “Two” sides to each issue and now seriously question why the advocates are getting more than their fair share.

I felt sad and concerned when reading your article, because there are so many unanswered and unaddressed issues. In addition, when I looked at the “expert” reference material you quote, I couldn’t help thinking of Al Gore, Michael Mann, Phil Jones, the IPCC, Ross Garnaut, Tim Flannery and the media led advocacy block.

Advocacy, expert opinion, partisan “reports and books” and MSM are all very badly tarnished and the only sections of the population you can now inspire are already converts. Advocacy has brought this upon itself, mostly by cheating, harassing and bullying the public.

The case you make would be OK if your assumption was correct that we only have the resources of the “narrow coastal strip” upon which to drive our economy to sustain our population levels. You absolutely know this is untrue and we know this because you are a very successful entrepreneur and respected business leader.

The question nagging me remains, why would such a respectable businessman abandon everything he knows about economic principles to make a pure advocacy case?

Don’t become another Ross Garnaut.

Mmmm...
1. I wonder if Dick understands longevity and the roll it is playing in our demographic momentum, or demographic swelling.
2. 500,000 extra in 2010? Not sure about that. 150,000 natural and 54,000 permanents, so maybe half of Dicks number.
3. I also wonder what Dick feels and understands about peak population and then global decline, as predicted by the UN under various scenarios. The most I recall was half our current global population by 2150.
4. Japan is in population decline and has a huge Ageing population problem.

"For Dick to use his affluence and power more effectively and with more significance, he could offer to repay the outstanding HECS debts of the first 5000 to return after being away for at least 5 years, back to OZ?" - demografix, April 20, 2011
Posted by dempografix, Wednesday, 20 April 2011 7:29:22 PM

Dear Demografix
So what if emigration is 86,200?! ABS tells us (3101.0) that "resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 September 2010 was 22,408,000 persons. This was an increase of 345,500 persons (1.6%) since 30 September 2009" and that "net overseas migration recorded for the year ended 30 September 2010 (185,800)". Immigration was thus 185,800 plus 86,200 equals 272,000. Emigration is about a third of immigration. (About half of emigrants are new immigrants - they probably got fed up looking for a place to live.)

Surely 345,500 more people in total are enough for you.