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Much more than a 'thought bubble' : Comments
By Dick Smith, published 20/4/2011Dick Smith responds to Ross Elliot and explains why population growth is not the solution to Australia's problems.
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Posted by Divergence, Thursday, 21 April 2011 2:01:38 PM
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OK Rhian. If you look at the figures for 1995-6 to 2005-6 (and I'm sorry I can't seem to copy the relevant graph to this page), total GSP was highest in Queensland (highest population growth rate), but only marginally so, and then came WA and NT (next highest population growth rates). But when you look at the per capita GSP, Queensland is only very marginally above the other states and, with the exception of Victoria and SA, WA did not perform any better than the remaining states. Of the three with low population growth rates, ACT and Tasmania did well on a GSP per capita basis and SA did not. So, again, not a lot of correlation overall between population growth rates and GSP per capita
Posted by popnperish, Thursday, 21 April 2011 2:11:53 PM
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Yabby,
The last thing I'd want is for you to take me seriously. : ) So you're saying that part of the appeal for guys in innovative thinking and productivity is the opportunity to attract a mate. Yep - I'd go along with that. I always attribute rampant consumerism to a successful partnership between the genders....the modern Western version is only a more sophisticated adaptation of the age old mediums of engagement. Posted by Poirot, Thursday, 21 April 2011 2:27:08 PM
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Way to go, Ruth1
>>I wonder where people like Cheryl and Pericles live their lives. In search of the next great coffee shop?<< I know that you meant it sarcastically, but it is certainly relevant. We are all coloured by our unique experiences. It may have a great deal to do with my attitude, for example, that I adore city living, and couldn't contemplate an existence anywhere else. If I ever move from Sydney, it will be to an even more crowded, even noisier, more hectic and thoroughly congested city. I occasionally find it challenging, of course - but what is life without a few challenges along the way. We had our own water scare a few years ago, that was solved by a couple of years of rain. We have crap transport systems that won't be solved any time soon, and a verging-on-criminal urban planning process that will never go away while there are politicians and lawyers involved. But I love it. I love the constant background noise, the police sirens crossing the Bridge, the honking of the ferries on the Harbour... I just noticed, I automatically capitalized Bridge and Harbour - there's no hope for me. Naturally, it makes for great dinner-party conversations. "You cannot be serious, Pericles" they chorus, and there follows a lively debate that wanders all over the place, eventually - somewhere around the top of the third bottle - landing in territory of the metaphysical kind... you know the stuff, why are we here, what is the purpose of our lives, that's a really nice red - French? yeah, thought so... and I tend to arrive at the same place each time. I like people. Actually like being around them. Lots of them. In buses, in trains - and yes, in coffee shops too - on the street, at the airport. They make me happy, just being there. Can't help it, that's the way it is. So you need to take my "Australia ain't full yet" suggestions with that as background. Your turn. Where do you live, and how does it affect your attitude? Posted by Pericles, Thursday, 21 April 2011 2:30:11 PM
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Rhian, it is quite true, re the Italian example, that new crops or new technology can increase the carrying capacity and improve living standards, although such improvements have historically never lasted. Population growth eventually outstrips them. We have been living in one such spike. You are assuming that it can go on forever, with endless technological rabbits pulled out of the hat, regardless of any biophysical limits to growth. Wishing doesn't make it so. See
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html Infrastructure and other problems are being blamed on poor planning, but the real issue was identified by Ross Gittins http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/punters-well-aware-of-economic-case-against-more-immigration-20101123-185ij.html Population growth increases the need for both public and private infrastructure. This is delayed somewhat with new babies, but new migrant families immediately need houses, roads, schools, hospitals, port facilities, etc., etc. However, it is likely to be many years before they have contributed enough to pay for their share of it. The economist Lester Thurow has estimated that 1% population growth requires an additional 12% of GDP to be spent on infrastructure. Assuming that infrastructure has an average 50 year lifetime, 24% of GDP would need to be spent every year for a stable population. 2% growth doubles this. Infrastructure Australia estimates that our infrastructure backlog is $770 billion. The planners know that raising taxes on existing residents to such an extent is politically impossible, so the infrastructure is being allowed to deteriorate, the only other alternative. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/industry-sectors/infrastructure-australia-unveils-its-project-wish-list/story-e6frg97o-1225876193194 Posted by Divergence, Thursday, 21 April 2011 2:34:00 PM
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Pericles - I too enjoy the buzz of city life - having lived in quite a few big cities I share many of your feelings on the subject. But I do not accept that there is a logical link between the enjoyment of city life to population growth.
The reason that we can enjoy city life is because we are reasonably sure that all those little, invisible things are taken care of. However, we can see how fragile city life is be looking back to what happened in London when air travel was stopped because of iceland's volcano - all of a sudden the steady supply of fresh food into the city dried up. If we want to live in a just and fair society then we need to ensure that essential goods and services are not in short supply - we can build a system of justice under conditions of moderate scarcity. (see David Hume the circumstances of justice.) However, if there is severe pressure on those essential goods and services then civil society quickly breaks down; your enjoyment of city life will be a fading memory. This is why I argue that we need to put a stop to population growth - at least until we can demonstrate we are able to provide those essential goods and services - at present we struggle to do so. Therefore if you wish to avert a breakdown of that pleasant lifestyle you enjoy then it is both in your interests and the well being of all of us that we stop population growth. Posted by BAYGON, Thursday, 21 April 2011 2:45:36 PM
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I didn't cherry pick the data any more than you did. Your focus is on the total GNP, what is of interest to the elite. I was concerned about whether population growth is beneficial to the ordinary resident. Since the Productivity Commission's modelling shows that average hours worked is increasing faster than average growth in incomes and that economic benefits are disproportionately going to owners of capital and the migrants themselves, it is fair to say that there is no real benefit to ordinary people. Even if there were a (small) economic benefit, it is pretty obvious to anyone who has lived in or near a big city for some time that quality of life is getting worse, in ways mostly outside the remit of the Productivity Commission:
More crowding and congestion. More long stressful commuting, with a choice between being packed like a sardine on slow, unreliable public transport (if it even exists) or nightmare traffic and endless hassles over parking. More road rage, tree rage, and other forms of conflict due to overcrowding. Casualisation, unpaid overtime, and other forms of exploitation at work. Lack of training opportunities for our young people, because they are less attractive than already skilled migrants. Shrinking block sizes, with gardens becoming luxuries for the rich. More rules and regulations. Permanent water restrictions. Environmental deterioration. Skyrocketing house prices, from 3.3 times the median wage in 1970 for an average house to currently more than 9 times the median wage in Sydney. Skyrocketing utility bills. Overstretched and crumbling infrastructure and public services.
Adele Horin reports (Sydney Morning Herald 28/3/11) that over the past 5 years, wages in Sydney have risen by 19.8%, but electricity is up by 64%, water up by 58% (no doubt partly because desalinated water is 4 to 6 times as expensive as dam water), rents up by 30%, food up by 21%, and health care up by 32%. New cars, electronic goods, clothing, and furniture are cheaper, but such things can usually be bought secondhand. The other bills are unavoidable.