Amicus wants a date put on the time our difficulties start.
Like many problems of this nature it is very hard to tie down.
In the case at hand it has to do with the nature of complex systems
and the way they fail.
My guess is there will be at first perhaps in the next 3 to 5 years a
gradual difficulty in supply of diesel and then later petrol.
It will not be all that bad except perhaps having to wait in a queue
for a tanker truck to arrive from time to time.
However as these small shortages gradually spread in effect it will
reach a point where some critical function fails because, perhaps,
a spare part did not arrive quickly enough.

This failure then causes more widespread failure and this where the
the complex system failure takes over which leads to collapse.
How much time there is between the start and the end of this process
may not be predictable. It is that point at which our governments are
failing in their duty to those who put them in power.
Examples can be seen in Japan at the moment where for the loss of
the printed circuit board for a car the whole plant has to shut down.

However if China and Europe have tied up significant amount of supply
with ownership and contracts we may find that we switch immediately
from full supply to 40% of what we can supply ourselves.
This effect would be catastrophic.

Governments are simply leaving it to luck and not planning for support
systems for their populations.
Compared to this problem global warming is a non event.

Bazz,
I agree with your prediction but you have left out an important part of it. As the shortages get worse, you will, have to get used to paying anything up to $3 per litre with in a couple of years and of course it will continue to climb till it is only affordable for the very rich and governments.
This will have a flow on effect. There are not many of our products and services that do not depend on CHEAP oil.

Yes Sarnian, exactly so, I paid $1.50 today, so we are halfway to $3.
It will have a more complex effect, as people will start to change to
public transport and car sharing. Certainly it will make today's
announcement of the widening of the M5 look silly.
Even more silly is the resurrected of the 2nd airport for Sydney.

It may also have the effect that those who can afford $3 to $8 a
litre,as forecast by the CSIRO, will be those wealthy or on expenses
for their job.
A mind picture I have is someone walking 7 km to the station and as
he passes the service station a Rolls Royce is filling up for $500.

In Australia ASPO thinks we will start seeing shortages somewhere
between 2011 and 2015. A lot will depend on whether Australia can
wield enough clout to get a fair share of world supplies.
But who said that world markets are fair ?
You sell us oil and we will sell you food !
If a market scramble starts I don't think small countries like
Australia will get much of a look in. There are reports that there
will be market "tightness" in the latter part of this year.

There is a piece of legislation that enables Federal Government
control of fuel supplies. However it is intended for situations like
industrial accidents and strikes etc. It considers techniques like odd
and even number plate days.
It is not capable of coping with a permanent shortage.
It does not enable permanent rationing.

The big worry will be the supply of food for food production and its
transport, processing and packaging.
Each calorie of food requires 10 calories of oil.