Corin

As you say, time will tell.

Another angle to consider, based on our last federal election, is that it may not matter who leads the opposition if the electorate is basically satisfied with the incumbent. This would explain why all our state labour governments are so invincible yet at the federal level the liberals rule so convincingly.

If this is true, then as long as conditions are good it may not matter who the prime minister is either. Sometimes I think we put too much stock in the personalities of our leaders and in fact they are usually just numbers men who make good figureheads, and what they actually believe in and who they really are may be of little significance. Perhaps true leadership qualities and vision only become significant when times get tough.

Andrew

Andrew,

Politics is vital and the difference between a Tory government coming in and Labour leaving could be as significant as the Howard's ascendency in Australia.

However I think Cameron is closer to the mainstream, and Howard to me has shown how far to the right Australia has gone under him. The tone on Tampa for instance could easily have "bombed" in Britain. With Labour and the Lib Dems taking 60% of the vote, Crosby's "Howard tactics" were a disaster here.

So I don't conceive of the Tories winning in the Howard style - which is why Cameron is interesting. and interesting a possible majority over here

Corin

It's ironic, really. Thatcher dragged Britain's economy out of the dark ages, but now New Labour has managed to establish itself as the heir to those reforms and the Tories are out in the cold. In Australia it was the other way around: Labor got the essential reforms going, but the Liberals have managed to set themselves up very firmly as the architects of those successes and no one takes Labor's credentials seriously.

If the Conservatives do not choose a strong Euro-sceptic leader they might just as well pack up and go home. Blair has had very little success in dragging the EU towards economic sense, but has let Britain slide far deeper into EuroRegulation. If the Tories do not care about defending Britain, what's the point of them?