Pericles

I thought that the method to try to measure the effect of population growth made sense. The problem was that other variables are probably at play, preventing a reliable call.

What the research does support is the hypothesis that population growth is not a major driver of prosperity, which is a contrast to the frequent claims of growth advocates.

<It is impossible, first of all, to determine with any degree of credibility, "what might have happened" in different circumstances.>

On this point I disagree with you. Your claim, if true, would make much statistical analysis impossible. For example, what is the risk from smoking? By looking at one person you will learn little, but by following many smokers and non smokers you start to see differences. Similarly, by measuring a number of parameters and comparing them with the prosperity of many cities, you might expect to see correlations.

The fact that population growth had a negative correlation with prosperity from the data gathered would at least suggest that there is no benefit.

Are you suggesting that population growth increases prosperity, but that this effect cannot be measured? I think this would be a hard sell.

That would not be my conclusion, Fester.

>>Are you suggesting that population growth increases prosperity, but that this effect cannot be measured? I think this would be a hard sell<<

And I thought we had agreed that the evidence provided was inconclusive on this point:

>>The fact that population growth had a negative correlation with prosperity from the data gathered would at least suggest that there is no benefit<<

I am rather inclined to agree with your earlier suggestion, that...

>>The problem was that other variables are probably at play, preventing a reliable call.<<

In many cases, I suspect, timing is a key variable. No-one predicted ahead of time the depth of the Japanese recession, for example. In fact, most of the "business" literature at the time was pointing to the Japanese economy as being exemplary - one that the West should learn from.

Hindsight tells us that the economy was insufficiently robust to withstand the bursting of their property bubble. Now, all the talk is about the damaging effects of a declining tax base, and a growing cohort of retirees.

South Korea faces a similar challenge.

In my view, drawing simplistic conclusions about the future of an economy from a single variable - population - leads to nothing more than pointless sloganeering.

It deserves much more thought and consideration than can be encapsulated in a populist soundbite, such as "stop immigration", or "stop this mad dash for growth at all costs".

Reducing a complex topic to such a banal level tends to encourage lazy thinking. Which our politicians depend upon, but which ultimately impoverishes us all.