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Living off our capital : Comments
By John Coulter, published 5/10/2010The assumption that Australia can continue to grow its GDP and population is putting us on a collision course for collapse.
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Posted by Curmudgeon, Tuesday, 5 October 2010 4:10:21 PM
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The anti-people faction must be worried that the population issue is slipping off the agenda. They've wheeled out The Prez! Read the following line and tell me if this isn't straight out of the freewheelin conspiracy theories of the 70s.
"powerful vested interests in property development, real estate and sections of the retail industry. Commercial media drew income... blah, blah, blah. Chuck in Rupert Murdoch and the American Defence industries and the CIA and whacko! Look, I'll admit that I've been tough on the SPA. It's just that almost all of their misanthropic theories about trade, resources, economies, labour, etc are bull dust and have been blown to pieces so many times in this forum and others as to be completely void of meaning. Coulter's interpretation of statistical variables is laughable and he does no service to serious issues such as labour and productivity in Australia or elsewhere. It's hard to judge whether the SPA is trying to be a realistic voice in the polity by denying the efficacy of trade, technology or capitalism. Unfortunately, until they reconsider some of their outlandish ideas they will always remain a sideshow of 20 or 30 people nestled in the Adelaide hills Posted by Cheryl, Tuesday, 5 October 2010 5:27:14 PM
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Hooray John Coulter.
We are under the impression that digging up iron ore and coal and selling it to the Chinese is “making money.” In fact it is taking money out of our savings account. None of that coal or iron ore will ever help our children unless we start building infrastructure with the money and planning for the future instead of just trying to cram as many people into Australia as possible. We need to develop sustainable businesses rather than be slaves to the whims of the miners. The Australian Government Minerals Atlas says there are 27.9 billion tonnes of iron ore and in 2013-2014 ABARE says Australia will be mining 504.9 million tonnes per year. Assuming an increase of 1% a year that will leave 44 years of iron ore and at 2% per year 38 years. http://www.australianminesatlas.gov.au/aimr/commodity/iron_ore_10.jsp The Australian Coal Industry Association says there were 72 billion tonnes of black coal in 2006 and 438 million tonnes were mined in 2008-09. Assuming 2.3% /year growth we have 67 years not 180 years like it says on the website as if there won’t be growth in production. http://www.australiancoal.com.au/the-australian-coal-industry_coal-resources.aspx http://www.australiancoal.com.au/the-australian-coal-industry_coal-production.aspx Maybe more economically available coal and iron ore will be discovered. Maybe oil increasing in price will make us use coal faster. Either way they won’t last forever and it isn’t a good way to plan an economy. Curmudgeon - You seem to be saying there is nothing we can do, because we have always had increasing immigration numbers and we always will. Go back in history. People have always said, There is nothing we can do _______________ (fill in the blank) a) There will always be slavery b) There will always be apartheid in South Africa c) Eastern Europe will always be dominated by communism d) Women will never vote I don’t think there is a magic bullet and I agree it looks bleak, but I can’t believe that we are just stupid primates who will only change our ways when millions of us start killing each other. Posted by ericc, Tuesday, 5 October 2010 8:13:01 PM
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Ericc's point about change is well made. In many ways politicians tend to follow from the front - the examples that Eric cites are evidence of that - they will adopt a trend once they see that it resonates with the electorate.
There is no ideological impediment to rejecting the growth paradigm admittedly there is an entrenched economic position but even there the Chicago school is increasingly being discredited by all sorts of economists: Axelrod, Stiglitz and Krugman to name but three. In the main it is treasury that is still dominated by people whose training was in that school and who find it most difficult to let go. If we want to get a snapshot of the future all we need to do is look at countries which have the Dutch Disease - ie countries which were dependent on the wealth of minerals for their prosperity. If we wait for the politicians to change then we will be waiting for ever - instead we need to start with mobilising public opinion as we do that the strident protestations of the likes of Cheryl will be drowned in a chorus of dissent just like those who protested that women ought not to be treated equally were eventually silenced by the sheer weight of public opinion. Posted by BAYGON, Tuesday, 5 October 2010 8:43:39 PM
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Posted by Matt Keyter, Tuesday, 5 October 2010 10:11:26 PM
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Population growth in my view is not the main problem. Supporting the growth, without changing our ways, is.
You see, I liken our country to a mother pig, with 12 teats, only, she is feeding 20 piglets, and there in lies the problem. I am 50, and I feel that in order for us to survive the next 50 years, we must stop the hand outs and waste that occurs on a regular basis. You see, for every 100 people who are born and grow up to enter the workforce, only 52 of them will pay positive taxes,assuming all stays the same, which means, there is another 42 who don't. Plus, there are those of the 100 who won't have work at all, yet, expect to be supported, along with their familes as well. Now it is all well and good to want a large family, but, the simple answer is, if you can't afford them, then don't have them. So long as we continue to adopt the old 'no worries, someone else will pay the bills', then we are doomed. Posted by rehctub, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 6:30:49 AM
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Divergence - I think you've almost entirely missed the point of what I was saying. Coulter is the one with the conspiracy theories not me. I was not, in fact, saying anything for or against large populations as such. What I was asking is that if you're agin' large populations what can you do about it? More specifically I was asking how immigration quotas can be cut. This business about putting gorwthist populations last in the ballot isn't going to work.. even the greens are, in their way, for growth, just that it has to be balanced growth. Any other solutions?