Chris,
Have a look at the number of laid up ships.
A year or so back there were photographs and TV news stories about
the ships laid up at anchor in Singapore Roads. There were something
like a thousand ships there and a similar number in Rotterdam.
A plot of freight rates might tell a story.

The Trans Siberian rail line is electrified for a large part, if not
all of its distance so I have been surprised that China has not sent
freight to Europe that way. It would be a lot shorter and the break
of gauge on the Chinese border and the Polish border would not be too
big of a problem these days. Perhaps the Russians want more than a
pound of flesh ?

Chris a comprehensive study is a great idea. If my business ( which promotes Australian made products and services) continues to grow at the current rate I would like to talk to you in early 2011 about how we could help you conduct that study.

BuyAustralianMade.com.au

That possibility sounds great. Please ask for my email address from Susan or Graham.

I would be very interested in your thoughts.

My main interest is indeed political economy, especially from an Australian perspective, although one that does give consideration to international realities and trends

Bazz, a standard 40 ft container holds 67 cubic metres, IIRC. Tonnage
wise they can hold around the 30 tonne mark.

But the question arises, why on earth would we want to make TVs in
Australia? Most tvs are now flat screens and I gather that the
specialised factories to make these, cost mega billions to build.

So the way to operate them, is to build very few globally, but
operate them around the clock, for economies of scale.

Freight hardly comes into it, the cost of building these factories
and the equipment involved do, for it has to be amortised against
production units.

Sea freight is extremely efficient in terms of fuel/ shipping tonne/mile.

What will happen when fuel prices rise, is that efficient logistics
will become a huge business. Loading a road train with 50 tonnes
of freight, both ways, is the way to go. Once again, fuel per
tonne/km is minimal. The biggest waste of fuel is when the
housewife drives 10 km to the local shopping centre, to buy a couple
of kg of food.

Our whole logistics system is still loaded with huge amounts of
waste. Rising fuel prices will change that.

You may well be right Yabby,
However as fuel depletes rationing will divert fuel to food production,
fertiliser, defence, government functions like police, electricity
maintenance, water, health etc and very little for unimportant things
like refuelling ships that have brought a load of TVs.
That is a bit of an exaggeration of course but you get the idea.

There is a possibility that complex systems can collapse virtually
without notice from a position of only minor problems.
There is an article on this here;

http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/6974#more

I just noticed when I got that URL that there is an article about
very fast trains. I have not read it yet, but I believe that it is a
pipe dream in this country as we will be better off refurbishing our
existing rail network and reopening closed branch lines while we have
the necessary resources.
http://anz.theoildrum.com/

*However as fuel depletes rationing will divert fuel to food production,
fertiliser, defence, government functions like police, electricity
maintenance, water, health etc and very little for unimportant things
like refuelling ships that have brought a load of TVs.*

Well you could be right Bazz, but I doubt it. In the end the
market will sort it out. If Govts try to regulate supplies
as you imply, the first thing that will happen is a black market
will develop.

We ship out boatloads of meat and grain, it makes sense to backload
with industrial goods.

IMHO our economy is suffering from Dutch disease. ie our miners
are doing so well, they are distoring the economy to the point where
many Australians simply have unrealistic expectations, compared to
the reality of the rest of the world.

On that basis, why would anyone want to risk their capital, to
develop a new manufacturing industry for consumer goods here?

Best for manufacturing to stick to what it does now, ie service the
mining and agricultural industries and export the most innovative of
those products