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The Forum > Article Comments > The fantasy of European integration is over > Comments

The fantasy of European integration is over : Comments

By Oliver Hartwich, published 17/5/2010

It has become clear that the problems in Europe are not just isolated to Greece.

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Country Debt Deficit % GDP
UK 11.5 68.1%
Greece 13.6 115.1%
Spain 11.2 53.2%
Ireland 14.3 64%
Italy 5.3 115.6%
Germany 3.5 73.2%
Extrapolating the Sovereign Debt Crisis (SDC) it isn't hard to see where the problem area's lay.

Beleaguer Prime Minister Papandreou may have averted the crisis for now. His Public Relations, prophylactic, belt-tightening austerity program has led to rioting, bloodshed, deaths and chaos. He is committed to reducing the deficit of 115 %, even if it means raising taxes, tobacco, alcohol etc Pay cuts to an inefficient Public service. Clamp down on tax evasion, black economy and corruption. He may be playing for time to resolve the crisis. A Population of 11,306,183, and GDP of $ 341 B, it lacks Global competitiveness. Only 33 % are fully employed - mostly in the civil service. Unemployment is 10 % and rising. Tourism earns 15 % of GDP. In 2004 over 17 million Tourist visited Hellas. 7.4 million people service the Tourist Industry. In terms of Trade there's a $ 42.83 B black hole. It's growth is minus two. The Loans/savings ratio is at a all time high of 97.5 %. A recent audit implicated 60 Doctors/dentist for fraud and tax evasion. The milieu is the tip of the business-as-usual, age old practice. Overdue credit repayments have led to severe downturns and more bankruptcies. Most Business's are resorting to paying their bills from 120 to 187 days ? Part of Greece's problem, is the lack of transparency and disclosures - to the opprobrium of EU. Greece hoodwinked them into financing, in part the Olympic Games. Her standard of living is among the highest in the Western World, with retirement age of sixty years. The current cost of living in Athens is 90 % of New York.7.5 million Greeks have dual passports. Over 6 million live Overseas, in USA, Canada, Argentina, Australia, UK, Israel etc which ensures a constant flow of Foreign Reserve currency and exchange. 17 % of the population are immigrants. 20 % live below the poverty line. Standard & Poor have downgraded Greece's credit rating to BB+.
cont..
Posted by dalma, Wednesday, 19 May 2010 10:48:45 AM
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The equivalent of JUNK status 2010.

Despite the hiccups, Parliamentarians are now calling for Hedge-funding exposure to ameliorate the SDC !

As if this gambit is going to solve a decades old conundrum of mismanagement. When the chips are down, and under desperate duress, and backed against a crumbling wall, anything is plausible !

The IMF has contributed $ 250 B to the bail-out. The European Community $ 962 B. Half in bilateral loans over 3 years. Angela Markel: " If the Euro fails, the European Unity also fails ". The Euro nose-dived to a four year low battering @ $ 1.223 against the greenback. Overall, this may have avoided a perilously close melt-down, German Banks have $ 45 B exposure to Greece's high risk toxic debt. The ECB ( European Central Bank ) after first denying it, bought $ 16.5 B, of Greek Treasury ten Year Bonds, at an undisclosed interest rate, and only after Political pressure from France, Italy, Spain and Portugal.

The prognosis for the Hellenic Republic isn't good. Cardiac failure. Acute depression. Recoverable. There is very little chance it will alter it's lifestyle. Three truths are self-evident:

1. Bankruptcy
2. Eventual default
3. Ostracized from the European Union.

The contagion is inherent. The Domino effect is on a roll. The dreaded " Apocalypso " will threaten the World's Financial Establishment once again. It will take more than the EU to arrest the hemorrhage. Printed ( monopoly ) paper money will eventually return to it's intrinsic value - zero, zilch, sweet fanny-adams, nada.

Quote: " loss of purchasing value of the dollar, caused by increasing out of thin air, the supply of money and debt, created by the Financial System of the Day. To control Inflation, one must control money supply ".

Milton Friedman ( Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. 1976 )
Posted by dalma, Wednesday, 19 May 2010 11:20:34 AM
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