Unfortunately Bazz, that is in fact the assessment of Dr Lacy Hunt, internationally recognised as not only a reliable economist, but with powerful research findings demonstrating such projection.

He contends the western economy will descend into gradual decline until its GDP to Debt ratio [effectively, per capita standard of living] is in balance with those economies of the eastern tigers.

Anyone who understands scientific management realises such outcome is nearly inevitable, according to the course and parameters of our present settings, as you accurately identify. It follows then, western concepts of growth are required to be reassessed, according to necessity of innovation of a new paradigm.

The GFC was caused by corruption and mismanagement at senior executive level, of both corporate enterprise, and Govt. The record of its global withstanding by the economies of China, and Australia, for example, demonstrate that observation.

Unfortunately, as profound as the western concept of science and observation is observed, its achilles heel is its inherent myopia driven by the extent of information it requires to be absorbed.

Ngarmada;
If this is Dr Hunts opinion;
>He contends the western economy will descend into gradual decline
>until its GDP to Debt ratio [effectively, per capita standard of
>living] is in balance with those economies of the eastern tigers.

Then he truly does not understand what is happening.
Most economists also have the same misunderstanding.
Jeff Rubin lately of CIBC bank is an exception.

As the cost of fuel increases a disconnect will appear between
different economies.
The eastern countries trade will be isolated from European trade as
will American trade.
Everything will gradually become localised.
I the price of fuel rises suddenly than this isolation will occur
suddenly also.
You can see this effect already as steel and furniture manufacture has
moved back to the US.
Another effect is the laying up of thousands of container ships in
European ports and Singapore. Most will never set to sea again.

Bazz, with due respect I believe it is you that is missing the big picture, perhaps owing to a myopic westerncentric view.

I do not doubt the phenomena you identify, however, when eastern tiger economies dominate global commerce, and retain a per capita standard of living well below that of the west, contributing significantly to competitive advantage, its not rocket science to comprehend which economies are in the box seat.

In the west we may contend technological superiority until the cows come home, but the relevant analogy applies to a cricket game; 'the commentary is fine, but at the end of the day you have to consider the scoreboard.'

Ngarmada,
am sorry but you have missed the point.
No one will dominate global commerce !
Everything will be local. If the cost of shipping goods from the east
to the west or the west to the east exceeds the difference in wages
how can trade either way exist ?
It just won't happen.

I know it is a hard thing to get your mind around as for hundreds of
years long distance trade has been a given.
Even rail transport from Europe to Asia will be too expensive.
Certainly it must cease to the Americas, as it has already started
changing. Likewise trade to and from Australia will likewise decrease.
Even more so for Australia as the distance to Australia from China
is greater than to the US.

>In the west we may contend technological superiority until the cows >come home,

That statement has nothing to do with it. Only very small, high value
items such as computer chips could continue. You must realise by
that time there is unlikely to be air travel except for military.

This what is known as The Long Emergency.
It is permanrnt !

Reliable current projections definitely identify a prospect of a Long Emergency. However I understand your predication is upon traditional forms of energy and power resources. There is no doubt their use by date is imminent as upon us.

However, although our current and traditional sources of information may not be observed to serve us competently, mainstream media still myopically focused upon traditional structural leadership, increasingly glimpses of alternative energy development may be observed. Although it may be observed further, there appears no coherent nor cohesive coordination of such initiatives, fairly cursory research may demonstrate it is well underway.

Although time frames of projections for the outcomes of that development are unable to be quantified currently, progress of their pursuit appears promising.

Inevitably the traditional structural establishment will submit to that progress, simply owing to there being no alternative. The key issue is the time frame for that energy metamorphosis, which according to reliable current projections, is a significant cause for concern.