While the sanctions are having a devastating effect on the Russian economy, there are a few countries that are actively helping Russia to evade them for profit.

"With the EU hammering out its 10th package of sanctions against Russia, plans are afoot to clamp down on their circumvention. A year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Group of Seven Nations is seeking a new tool to coordinate efforts to enforce sanctions and boost compliance. It will include information sharing on countries and firms anywhere in the world that try to evade or undermine sanctions. To take stock of the situation, Financial Services Commissioner Mairead McGuinness, who is in charge of EU sanctions implementation, will today chair a meeting of member states and industries to see what worked and where circumvention prevailed. "

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-02-23/g-7-to-create-new-russia-sanctions-enforcement-mechanism

As the minority regions are suffering the highest casualties and loss of income the question is whether Russia will splinter into different countries similar to what happened in 1990.

I have never had much interest in the Russia/Ukraine business, apart from our idiot government's donations of equipment to Ukraine, a country with which we have near to zero relations. The EU has been huffing and puffing a about its loss of Russian gas etc, but when our own idiots started to get on the same bandwagon and claim Russia as the reason our our sky-rocketing energy prices instead of their own emissions stupidity, the was it for me.

Even the hysterical media has stopped the sob stories about women scampering out of Ukraine and leaving their men to fight. It seems that people are now sick and tired of it, particularly given the widening divisions in their own countries, and the gradual erosion of democracy that we are seeing under the Socialists in Australia.

My own thinking is: bugger Ukraine and Russia; we have enough to worry about on the home front.

Major upsets in other countries should concern us.
Think of it as two families further down your street, and one is waging war on the other.
Your neighbourhood is being disturbed.
This disrupts the smooth functioning of everyday services.
Power and food production can be affected?
So yes, you need to do what you can to slow them down without going to war yourself.
The best way is to 'ban' the aggressor.
If you cannot 'send him away', the next best thing is to isolate him.
And give the 'aggressed' enough material to defend himself.
There will be no winners, but inaction on your part will make you a loser too?
You cannot ignore such aggression just next door.
Some of it will spill over on to you.
You cannot just bury your head in the sand and pretend it is not happening.
And 'isolating' the aggressor is just what other countries are trying to do now?

The west started this war, just another one of it's endless wars of western hegemonic imperialism, with a coloured revolution in Ukraine.

Extending Russia Competing from Advantageous Ground
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR3000/RR3063/RAND_RR3063.pdf

But it's backfiring spectacularly, and all the west can do is dig their whole deeper.

So I say go right ahead, sanction China, sanction India, sanction Saudi Arabia, it doesn't matter, the world has had enough of Americas threats, blackmail, regime changes and military interventions.

All the people it has screwed over have become friends and have found ways to de-dollarise.
This means the US can't print 'greenbacks' and trade them for the worlds produced goods anymore.
The petrodollar is almost dead and the petroyuan is here.
The US won't be able to sell it's bonds to raise capital to service it's debt obligations, will default or print money causing massive inflation like the Weimar republic and then face economic collapse.

America's years of lazy abundance are over.
The are not exceptional anymore, but they are holding on for dear life to their same old tired methods of treating others,
- but are actually stuck in quicksand.

- The more they struggle, the worse it will get, so go ahead - sanction everyone.
They're only isolating themselves and ensuring their demise that much faster by struggling.
The unipolar world order is over, the multipolar world order is here.
The US is descending, while other nations are ascending.

Face facts.

'Welcome to the Brussels Edition' - Nice article SM, Lol

http://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/10/19/josep-borrell-apologises-for-controversial-garden-vs-jungle-metaphor-but-stands-his-ground

>>After days of mounting international backlash, Josep Borrell, the European Union's outspoken foreign policy chief, has apologised for his controversial remarks in which he described Europe as an idyllic "garden" of prosperity and the rest of the world as mostly a "jungle."<<

Without cheap Russian gas and paying 4 times the price for LNG and buying higher priced oil (much of which still comes from Russia through third parties), it won't be long before Europe becomes a jungle again.

- That's what you get when your own 'allies' blow up your energy pipelines.
Americas willing to sell out it's own allies for short term gains in energy and military sales.

The West is going down fighting, and dragging all it's 'allies' down with it, like a drowning man.

Hi AC,

Consider the war against Germany, Italy and Japan. Those nations went from being international terrorist states to being peaceful prosperous nations contributing much to the world. Russia could be a great nation like them, but it chooses to be an impoverished terrorist state run by gangsters.

How were Germany, Japan and Italy destroyed by the west in ww2? The only nation intent on remaining a shithole seems to be Russia, and they are proving to be a brilliant success at it. That is where a them and us mentality leads.

"Consider the war against Germany, Italy and Japan. Those nations went from being international terrorist states to being peaceful prosperous nations contributing much to the world. Russia could be a great nation like them, but it chooses to be an impoverished terrorist state run by gangsters."

Putin didn't want to invade Ukraine, he spent 14 years since 2008 trying to avoid it, but the West left him no choice.
As far as the sanctions against Russian oligarchs are concerned, the West did Putin and Russia a favour sanctioning them and stealing their assets.

For one, it sent a message to other countries (like Saudi Arabia for example) that the US could potentially freeze their central bank reserves and steal their assets, which pushed many to speed up de-dollarisation and work on alternative payments systems outside of swift, and the pace of these changes has increased quite fast.

Secondly, for Russia specifically those western or European leaning oligarchs who lost out, Putin laughed it off and told them 'that's what you get' and 'you should invest in Russia' if you don't want to lose your prized possessions.

"How were Germany, Japan and Italy destroyed by the west in ww2? The only nation intent on remaining a shithole seems to be Russia, and they are proving to be a brilliant success at it. That is where a them and us mentality leads."

Sanctions are having an impact on Russia, but it has plenty of energy, fertilizer, food and other goods. Russians have done it tough before, but this time they won't starve, and the world's come to realise that it needs what Russia has, meanwhile Russias finding alternative markets (other than the west) for those goods, has improved its own shipping fleets and has it's own shipping insurance, doesn't need Lloyds, just more income the west loses.

BRICS has a higher GDP than the G7, this trend is the new reality.
The west is slowly descending and BRICS nations are ascending.

Michael Hudson Explains How Russia and China DEFEATED US Dollar Hegemony
http://youtu.be/cfDfTvaLt0c

Gravitas Plus: Europe divided on Ukraine War
http://youtu.be/xYGqOTCA-Ho

ttbn,

Russia started this war as it has started many wars in the last 30 years, and Putin has made his imperialist intentions clear which is why so many countries are wanting to join NATO.

Just as when Hitler invaded Poland after annexing parts of Europe, this final invasion of Ukraine is a red line after which the world has to beat Russia so badly that never threatens its neighbours again.

The $bns of aid and weapons given to Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia have already paid dividends as the resourceful Ukrainians have already degraded the Russian army by destroying 1000s of tanks along with troop carriers, artillery, air defence systems, planes, and helicopters and killing or wounding 200 000 Russian soldiers. And the sanctions are preventing the Russians from replacing more than a tiny fraction of their losses.

Putin's Russia has been a malignant tumour in Europe left over from the cold war that is now getting its chemotherapy.

The sooner Russia realises that it cannot win the less damage Russia and its people will suffer.

ttbn,

over the decades Nato has spent $trillions on arms to protect itself against the USSR. Now for a fraction of that one of the worst tyrannies in the world is being brought to its knees. It's money well spent.

AC,

You write such bollocks. The GDP of all the BRICS countries is roughly equal to the USA alone and does not come close to overtaking the G7. Similarly, as the most important feature of a reserve currency is that is floating, and market-driven none of the BRICS countries meet this requirement. As a result, the RMB of China is used less than 1/2 as much as the British pound and nowhere near the US$,

The price of oil and gas is falling as world demand drops. The world has learnt to live without Russia. Russia may have food and fuel, but they can't afford to pay their soldiers and they can't build new weapons. Inflation is ramping up and real wages are plummeting.

Russia will lose this war.

SM

I'm not sure that Russia is being "brought to its knees". However, if it is, will China step in, do you think, and/or will Russia resort to nuclear weapons? I cannot see Russia just giving in quietly; it's just not in the DNA.

Sometimes you really are as dumb as a box of rocks SM,
You refuse to see anything you don't want to see,
You're like an 8 year old girl running around with it's fingers in it's ears screaming "I'm not listening to you"

Russia criticizes NATO pledge to Ukraine, Georgia April 4, 2008 REUTERS
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-georgia-ukraine-russia-idUSL0315483920080404

US gov’t knew NATO expansion to Ukraine would force Russia to intervene
http://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2022/02/27/us-nato-expansion-ukraine-russia-intervene/

"Senior US government officials knew as far back as 2008 that the possibility of adding Ukraine to NATO was seen as a serious “military threat” by Russia, one that crosses Moscow’s security “redlines” and could force it to intervene.
Yet Western leaders continued insisting that Ukraine would join the US-led military alliance, right up until Russia did indeed intervene in February 2022."

- What's the date on this classified diplomatic cable you brainless jellyfish?
NYET MEANS NYET: RUSSIA'S NATO ENLARGEMENT REDLINES
http://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html

>>Summary. Following a muted first reaction to
Ukraine's intent to seek a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP)
at the Bucharest summit (ref A), Foreign Minister Lavrov and
other senior officials have reiterated strong opposition,
stressing that Russia would view further eastward expansion
as a potential military threat. NATO enlargement,
particularly to Ukraine, remains "an emotional and neuralgic"
issue for Russia, but strategic policy considerations also
underlie strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and
Georgia. In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue
could potentially split the country in two, leading to
violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force
Russia to decide whether to intervene. Additionally, the GOR
and experts continue to claim that Ukrainian NATO membership
would have a major impact on Russia's defense industry,
Russian-Ukrainian family connections, and bilateral relations
generally. In Georgia, the GOR fears continued instability
and "provocative acts" in the separatist regions. End
summary. <<

- It's February the 1st 2008, 2 months before the NATO summit in Bucharest
And where the hell is Assange now?

As for G7 v's BRICS -

The data comes from a UK-based macroeconomic research firm citing the IMF's own data.

>>Fortunately, there are other economic analysts, such as Richard Dias of UK based Acorn Macro Consulting, a self-described “boutique macroeconomic research firm employing a top-down approach to the analysis of the global economy and financial markets.” Rather than accept the IMF’s rosy outlook as gospel, Dias did what analysts are supposed to do — dig through the data and extract relevant conclusions.

After rooting through the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Data Base, Dias conducted a comparative analysis of the percentage of global GDP adjusted for PPP between the G7 and BRICS, and made a surprising discovery: BRICS had surpassed the G7.

This was not a projection, but rather a statement of accomplished fact: BRICS was responsible for 31.5 percent of the PPP-adjusted global GDP, while the G7 provided 30.7 percent. Making matters worse for the G7, the trends projected showed that the gap between the two economic blocs would only widen going forward.<<

Don't forget Saudi Arabia is joining BRICS
- Charter boat? What Charter boat?

http://www.rt.com/business/574303-brics-g7-share-global-economy/
>>Earlier this year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that “more than a dozen” nations have expressed an interest in joining BRICS, including Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Egypt, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sudan, Syria, Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Bangladesh have acquired equity in the New Development Bank, BRICS’ funding organization.<<

And FYI, Russia's not going to lose the war.

NYT, nightmare doc leak. Running out of S300. Putin super popular, in USA. BBC state new label. U/1
http://youtu.be/0LP3C7JawnA

Bakhmut is 90% taken, the Ukrainian armies experienced troops are all dead and it lacks weapons.
And the West is losing the economic war, destroyed by it's own sanctions.

Hi AC,

There is a reason I keep mentioning Japan an Germany. The United States had an unprovoked war with them. It defeated both nations. Today Japan and Germany are prosperous and peaceful democracies. This contrasts with your narrative where the United States is out to start a war with Russia, destroy it as a nation and steal its resources, which is a good reflection of Putin's paranoia.

What is clear is that Russia is intent on destroying Ukraine as a nation, murdering the population and stealing its resources. It is classic Russian rhetoric to accuse critics of engaging in the same conduct, no matter the hollowness of such accusations.

https://apnews.com/article/medvedev-nuclear-putin-arrest-warrant-germany-ukraine-6dcde92e06f41a7c5cb7386f7939df33

"The United States had an unprovoked war with them. It defeated both nations. Today Japan and Germany are prosperous and peaceful democracies."

I wouldn't necessarily say that it was completely unprovoked.
In the case of Germany, I think Hitler was a bit twisted invading Poland, France and other countries, but the West saw him as a threat as a rising power after he turned the country into an economic powerhouse after the days of the Weimar Republic.
Hitler I believe had some resentment going back to WWI, after Jews convinced the US to enter the war with the promise of the return of the Jewish Homeland under the Balfour Declaration.
- The US entered WWI, Germany ended up losing and faced massive hardship and reparations through to the Great Depression, before the rise of the NAZIs.

In Japan the US followed a policy called the McCollum memo, to provoke Japan into going to war as they saw them as a rising power.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCollum_memo

The US sees any rising power as a rival or enemy.
- There's always a little more to the story than the one they teach us as kids.

The US has been doing this type of thing, going all the way back to 'The USS Maine and spanish mines in Havanah Harbour'.

Even Vietnam was started with a lie to counter communism
"In August 1964, the U.S. entered the Vietnam War based on reports of an unprovoked attack in the Gulf of Tonkin — which the president knew were false."
http://allthatsinteresting.com/gulf-of-tonkin

Wasn't the Boer War something to do with Cecil Rhodes and Rockefeller?
Crimean War all about Christians in Palestine between Napolean, Ottomans and Britain V's Tsar Nicholas?

So many wars, and so many casualties over stupid disagreements that others can somehow capitalise from.

As for the AP article link, the US has used exactly the same kind of language in it's own Hague Invasion Act.

http://www.diplomatic-council.org/node/432

"In that year US Congress passed the American Service-Members’ Protection Act, nicknamed ‘The Hague Invasion Act’. It mandated, among other things, the use of “all means necessary and appropriate to free US or allied personnel detained by or on behalf of the ICC.” Moreover, in September 2018,US national security adviser John Bolton threatened the ICC with sanctions and to criminally prosecute ICC officials – if the court formally proceeded with opening an investigation into alleged war crimes committed by US military and intelligence staff during the war in Afghanistan or pursued any investigation into Israel or other US allies."

- In the case of the US, their rhetoric is about any US or allied personal in regards to their own war in Afghanistan, and we shouldn't forget their War in Iraq started over non-existent WMD's.

- In Russia's case the threat it to their President itself, not just Russian personel.

Thanks for that AC. You are very knowledgeable and forthcoming with information as always. Rather than getting bogged down in the significance of things like the McCollum memo, I would instead ask you to think about the outcomes, like the prosperity and freedom of German and Japanese citizens today. Are they full of conspiracy theories about the great Satan America secretly plotting their downfall as many Russian citizens do? How do living standards and the economy of Russia compare with Japan and Germany today? Perhaps that is what Gorbachev was thinking about when he had talks with Thatcher and Reagan and decided to end the failed Soviet experiment? Putin's nostalgia driven insanity only reinforces my respect for Gorbachev's decision and his ability to make it happen.

"You are very knowledgeable and forthcoming with information as always."
- I'm not really all that knowledgeable, I just know a few things but am no kind of expert on geopolitics.

"I would instead ask you to think about the outcomes, like the prosperity and freedom of German and Japanese citizens today."

Well I think maybe Germany and Japan kneeled like a slave does in subservience before their master (the US), where Russia never did.
But the US was doing it's best to rob everything the former USSR had at the end of the cold war. You talk about the Russian oligarchs being bad, the West did not do anything to help Russia during those hard times, just put it's foot on its throat, robbed the place and declared itself king of the unipolar world.

The US allows you to have some level of prosperity if you kneel before your master, they send in their business interests and capital for investment and won't instead work to sanction and overthrow your country.

It sounds a little bit far fetched but in truth there may in fact be some truth to this.

"How do living standards and the economy of Russia compare with Japan and Germany today?"
- They both need Russian energy and will suffer greatly without it.
Europe will not be as prosperous paying 4 times the price for US LNG, and buying Russian oil through third parties like China and India, and Japan has, they will lose their industries to the US, China or other South East Asian nations. Japan has an exemption on purchases of Russian energy.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-breaks-with-u-s-allies-buys-russian-oil-at-prices-above-cap-1395accb

Let's see how Europe goes next winter...
- meanwhile

German insurers renew cover for blast-damaged Nord Stream gas link
http://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-insurers-renew-cover-blast-damaged-nord-stream-gas-link-2023-04-04/

You do realise destroying Nordstream was a part of US policy don't you?
I've shown the link enough times but I'll add it again:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
(There's an image of Russian and US chess pieces with 'Read online' underneath it at the top of this webpage, click it)

"CHAPTER THREE
Measure 2: Reduce Natural Gas Exports and Hinder
Pipeline Expansions"

'and Japan has' - scratch that from my last comment, it was written in error.

Europe must resist pressure to become ‘America’s followers,’ says Macron
http://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-china-america-pressure-interview/

Why would Europe trust a partner who destroys Nordstream to sell their own gas

"Well I think maybe Germany and Japan kneeled like a slave does in subservience before their master (the US), where Russia never did."

That may be so in the conspiracy riddled minds of Russian patriots, but Japanese and Germans are living free lives and believing and saying whatever they choose. How is it that these "enslaved and subservient" people enjoy such freedom, are so much wealthier and have far less corruption than Russia. That sounds like a phenomenal dupe by the United States, with the impoverished and enslaved no doubt regularly retold the updated details by their authoritarian gangster ruling elite via controlled media.

"Let's see how Europe goes next winter... "

A very good idea AC. Time will tell, but my guess is that Europeans will be warm and cosy whilst the Russians will still be brainwashed and oppressed.

German industrial output falls more than expected in December
http://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-industrial-output-falls-more-than-expected-december-2023-02-07/

>>Industrial production decreased by 3.1% on the previous month, the office said. In a Reuters poll, analysts had pointed to a drop of 0.7% for the month.
The drop was more severe in energy-intensive industrial sectors, where production decreased by 6.1% in December compared with November.
This illustrates how severely the energy crisis is hurting industry, said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.
"The former growth engine of the German economy is stuttering and improvement is not really in sight," Brzeski said.<<

Germany Unemployment Rate
http://tradingeconomics.com/germany/unemployment-rate
>>The unemployment rate in Germany edged up to 5.6 percent in March 2023, the highest level since July 2021 and slightly above market expectations of 5.5 percent, as the number of unemployed people rose by 16 thousand to 2.54 million. Year-on-year, the number of unemployed increased by 229 thousand.<<

Do you think maybe they're free to talk about the destruction of Nordstream by the US and that they can't afford their own domestic energy costs, that businesses are closing or moving manufacturing abroad and they're losing their jobs?
- I think it may be a realistic possibility for Germans at home, but I'm not sure the German media would be free to discuss it in such detail...

It looks like I'm not the only one who thinks the way I do.
- And if I think it and others are thinking it...
Well the slaves must obey their masters
[shrugs shoulders]

US TO PUNISH EU SLAVES OVER RUSSIA SANCTIONS
http://www.youtube.com/live/69IcuO505iE?feature=share

AC,

Another tirade of vague and unsupported posts that are largely irrelevant. The world is going through an economic dip at the moment manufacturing capacity in countries that export has all dipped including China.

Also if the EU were vassal states of the US, why have they largely ignored all requests from the US for the previous few decades? It was the second unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine along with the 1000s of war crimes by Russia that spurred them into action.

The only reason that Russia’s economy hasn't plummeted is because of the huge expenditure on the army. Given the huge budget deficits, Russia is running this is only sustainable in the short run.

Considering that Russia has broken every treaty or ceasefire with Ukraine since 1994 Russia simply cannot be trusted, and the outcome of the war must be that the Russian army is degraded to the point where it cannot contemplate attacking its neighbours again and completely withdraws from all occupied Ukraine including Crimea before the sanctions are lifted.

Who cares about the sanctions?
They're doing more harm to the west than to Russia.
BRICS nations are getting all the cheap energy, while western nations get inflation, businesses face bankruptcy and their citizens get welfare.
Sanctions only lock nations out of the western monetary system, and many nations are now looking for ways around this system, not just Russia.
The US has won a small battle with it's sanctions, but has lost the war.

Saudi Arabia has joined BRICS and OPEC+ are willing to reduce output to stick it to the US,
- because the US tried to tell them how much they should sell oil for.
They tried to say 'We are your master and you are our slave'

It's game over for the US, it's simply a matter of time.
- Destroyed by their own sanctions against others.

The US has only one doctrine, 'where there's confusion there's profit'.
Sanctions only work in the short term.
In the long term the opponent learns to circumnavigate
Russia is doing what the US did with Iraq, and the West let the US get away with it.
Why?
Profit!
China is doing as the US showed them, HOW TO
Now everyone is concerned with the Ukraine.
If one was really concerned about lives then the Ukraine should have capitulated as it was not in any position to fight a war much less with Russia.
You don't really think the US is giving armaments away to the Ukrainians for free! PULEEZE...the UK has only recently just finished paying the US for the World War2
Aid comes at a cost! It's called Aid because it's on credit, to be paid for at a later stage and at a time and manner of the donors choice.
The West set the example with Iraq and now want to change the rules.
Why? Iraq is still smouldering.
Afghanistan is a lost cause.
The Palestinians are a living Holocaust...what! just because there are no ovens it's OK.
Give me a break, being two faced is just that
The US has no intention of anything that creates stability because where there's confusion there's profit and the US is profiting big time with Ukraine.
The US will fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian and NATO will help them do it.
And the delusional still think if you tell a lie long enough it will become the truth

Saudi Arabia SHOCKS the US, Joins China in Building Multipolar World
http://youtu.be/jXsxEQUHnMU

MICHAEL HUDSON ON BRICS DE-DOLLARIZATION, THE BANKING CRISIS, AND MULTIPOLARITY
http://www.youtube.com/live/CWQjYAg_M84?feature=share

How De-Dollarization Will Affect Capital Markets
http://youtu.be/TheRwUTVHIA

Michael Burry’s New Warning for the 2023 Recession
http://youtu.be/AFJAUCmGC0g

I Just Exposed the TRUTH Behind China YouTubers!
http://youtu.be/oRdNRS6A5c8

Donald Trump: Guilty until proven innocent w/Robert Barnes
http://www.youtube.com/live/Bp3U6JSgqY4?feature=share

Hope you watch all those videos SM
- You never know you just might learn something... though it is doubtful I know

Here's some more stuff to sink your teeth into in the meantime

Russian diplomacy in a changing world
http://russiaeu.ru/en/news/foreign-minister-sergey-lavrovs-article-razvedchik-intelligence-officer-news-magazine-march

Russia Foreign Minister LAVROV: "To tell the truth, we no longer have any illusions about converging with Europe, being accepted as part of the “common European home,” or creating a “common space” with the EU. All these declarations made in European capitals have turned out to be a myth and a false-flag operation.

The latest developments have clearly shown that the ramified network of mutually beneficial trade, economic and investment ties between Russia and the EU were not a safety net. The EU did not think twice about sacrificing our energy cooperation, which was a pillar of their prosperity.

We have seen that the European elites have no independence and always do whatever they are ordered to do in Washington, even if this results in direct damage to their own citizens. We take this reality into account in our foreign policy planning."

Ukraine needs long-range air defense to protect from Russian guided bombs
http://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-needs-long-range-air-defense-to-protect-from-russian-guided-bombs-50313909.html

Russia is increasingly using relatively accurate glide bombs that have a range of 50-70km.
- Russia is increasingly using it's air force now that the Ukrainian air defence has been largely destroyed.
http://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1645504511707086849
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1645535570805022720

Ukraine is losing this war.

WSJ, burning through S-300s. WaPo doc leak; Expect modest gains & big losses, cancel offensive.
http://youtu.be/qQQt4z71y28

Is this Ukraine’s last chance to drive back Putin?
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/is-this-ukraines-last-chance-to-drive-back-putin-tlwks5mdh

Ukrainian air defense missiles to run out by May – WSJ
http://www.rt.com/russia/574478-ukraine-air-defense-out/

"Ukraine will run out of most of its anti-air missiles by May, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing classified Pentagon documents leaked on social media. Facing the prospect of Russian air superiority, Kiev has been asking for more air defense systems from the West for months.

According to a purported Pentagon presentation dated February 28, Ukraine is expending around 69 Buk missiles and 200 S-300 missiles per month, the newspaper reported. At this rate of fire, Kiev’s forces will be out of Buk ammunition by the end of this week, and will deplete its S-300 stockpile by May 3, it said.

Sourcing missiles for these Soviet-built platforms is proving difficult for Kiev and its Western backers. In their place, Ukraine has received three German Iris-T and eight American NASAMS anti-air systems. However, these systems consume around 64 missiles per month, and their limited number cannot cover as much territory as Ukraine’s S-300s, according to the document."

Ukraine May Run Out of Air Defenses by May, Leaked Pentagon Documents Warn
Kyiv is depleting its last reserves of S-300 missiles, making it possible for Russia to achieve air superiority, according to purported Pentagon presentations
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-may-run-out-of-air-defenses-by-may-leaked-pentagon-documents-warn-b96b0655

AC,

That the West is suffering more than Russia from the sanctions is a delusion. Russia has lost more than half its oil and gas revenues, and other payments and taxes have fallen drastically too. The government is running about a $40bn deficit every month, and considering that the Russian economy is about the size of Australia's that will wipe out Russia's reserves by the end of the year and no one will lend them a penny.

As for Russia's glide bombs, they only dropped a few and their specs compared to the US bombs are pathetic. They get 40km after being dropped from 50 000 feet, and so far have an accuracy of 100m.
Another dud.

Ukraine has dozens of anti-aircraft missile systems and if they are due to run out in May will get new supplies in April.

Russia is getting its arse kicked.

Ukraine cant win.
Maybe they will get to Melitopol but then what?
You think they can get bogged down trying to take a city like Russia has done taking Bakhmut?
Ukraine already lacks weapons and ammunition now, when it's gone there won't be any more.
Not to mention that Russia has been increasing its use of air power because Ukraine has no more air defense.
And the better Ukraine does in this upcoming counteroffensive, the more political capital Russias leaders will have to further mobilise more troops and put itself on more of a war economy mobilising people and their war industry.

And ultimately China will assist Russia if necessary.
The more China assists Russia in Ukraine, the more the West has to drawdown from it's own depleted stockpiles and the less it has to fight a war with China, as well as that China can test it's own weaponry in combat.
And if Russia does face economic problems China will bail them out as Russia winning in Ukraine is part of Chinas strategic interests, which is proven by the fact that Xi hasn't visited Zelensky, or even picked up the phone yet.

Ukraine's Coming Offensive: Leaked NATO Plans + Lack of Arms
http://youtu.be/iBU74rUubi4

Russia has taken on 31 NATO countries in Ukraine.
Ukraine isn't winning in a war of territorial conquest or the war of attrition either.
They're following orders from Washington, warmongers who are hysterical over Ukraine and removing Putin, and who refuse to negotiate because they've spent decades trying to get this situation started and are willing to sacrifice every Ukrainian if the have to and even sacrifice European energy interests because this is the closest they've ever gotten to taking out Putin, who they despise.

They thought they'd take out Putin, install a Pro-western leader and divide Russia up into smaller states subservient to Washington and then move on to China.
- But they have no chance of achieving these aims.
It's a fools errand, they will lose both militarily and economically.
It will be the end of the western rules-based unipolar order.

This isn't the Kharkov counteroffensive where Russian forces were spread thin and had no established lines of defense.
Russia has well established lines of defense, and are well prepared for the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive.

I imagine they're going to try to cut the land bridge to Crimea, and then once they have troops close enough they will try to attack the Kersh bridge to try to prevent reinforcements from mainland Russia to Crimea with long range missiles.

Even now I think they have to delay the counteroffensive because Russia blew up 70k tonnes of fuel in Zaporizhzhia a few days ago.
- Not to mention Russia will launch its own offensive once Bakhmut has been taken and the ground dries out a little more, which is getting closer every day.

Russia says it has destroyed 70,000-tonne fuel depot near Zaporizhzhia
http://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-zaporizhzhia-attac-idAFL1N36C04W

AC,

Another delusion! China is having financial troubles at the moment and in spite of sabre-rattling, China cannot afford secondary sanctions and it has been very clearly warned as to what will happen if it supports Russia Militarily. Also, the Russian army being destroyed will open things up for China to take back some disputed areas such as Vladivostok.

If Ukraine reaches Meritopol they will do what they did to Kherson, Izyum, and Lyman. The Russians will do what they did before and bravely run away.

Secondly, to refute some of the BS claims that you regurgitated from Russian propaganda:
1 - Russia is fighting 31 NATO countries. No it's not. There is not a single NATO soldier fighting in Ukraine. What NATO and other non-NATO countries are giving is aid, weapons and information. NATO would swat Russia like a fly.
2 - Russia blew up 70 000 tons of fuel in Zaphoritza. This bollocks ranks along with "the dog ate my homework" etc. Notably, no evidence has been supplied even though this is close to Russian lines and this would be visible from far further away.

You're so naive.
NATO countries have already given everything they can to the war and left their own nations defensive capabilities severely depleted.
Openly sending what's left of their forces into Ukraine would make them full party to the conflict, allow Russia to move to full mobilasation and risk nuclear attack by Russia.

And there's plenty of Europeans fighting for Ukraine, they 'sheep dip' them.
That means they take off their NATO or nations military fatigues and put on Ukrainian ones.

Chinas going to take Vladivostok. Ahahaha, funny man
- It's only 10am and you'd better go and pop on your pj's because you're entering dreamland.
You must really live inside of clown world.
Maybe you're the clown in charge.

Dear Critic,

I am in no position to decide whose information is correct, yours or Shadowminister's.

All I can say is, that if your information is more correct than his, then we should all be taking and biting on our cyanide pills - if you truly believe in what you are telling us about the impending victory of China et al. who are on their way to come and get us, then you should be among the first to bite on yours.

I, however, am not ready to bite on mine on the basis of rumours, so for now I rather live my life on the assumption that Shadowminister's information is more correct.

What is clear to me is that I will die a free person, not in Chinese captivity, and while I still live as a free person, I will continue to do the little I can in my limited capacity to help Ukraine, which is to play and sing Ukrainian songs in fund-raising events for Ukraine, including this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nkgfoaI_rI

Y,

Facts always trump propaganda.

Dear ShadowMinister,

Indeed, facts trump propaganda, the question being how can I tell the facts from rubbish without investing tons of time on research, which I do not have or rather use differently?

Leaked Documents Suggest Ukrainian Air Defense Is in Peril if Not Reinforced
http://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/us/politics/leaked-documents-ukrainian-air-defense.html

You have to be careful with the NYT, as it's the first media publication members of the US government deliberately leak to when they want to get a story out.

The consensus is that it was leaked in the US by Americans.
Is it propaganda meant to confuse the Russians about Ukraines coming counter offensive?
Was it a deliberate attempt to stop unprepared Ukrainian military from being annihilated?
Certain parts are being denied by the US government saying Russians have modified casualty numbers, but if the numbers were true they would have to say that as some officials like Lloyd Austin would be held in contempt for lying when questioned by members of congress in regards to the exact state of the war.
Or was it a deliberate leak meant to make officials panic into doing more to prepare for the coming offensive.

Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraines minister of Defense has recently been to Greece and Cyprus begging for S-300 and BUK missiles, so the state of Ukrainian air defense seems to be accurate.

From the article:
"Stocks of missiles for Soviet-era S-300 and Buk air defense systems, which make up 89 percent of Ukraine’s protection against most fighter aircraft and some bombers, were projected to be fully depleted by May 3 and mid-April, according to one of the leaked documents. The document, which was issued on Feb. 28, based the assessment on consumption rates at the time. It is not clear if those rates have changed.

The same document assessed that Ukrainian air defenses designed to protect troops on the front line, where much of Russia’s air power is concentrated, will “be completely reduced” by May 23, resulting in strains on the air defense network deeper into Ukrainian territory.

If that happens, officials say, Moscow could decide it is finally safe for its prized fighter jets and bombers to enter the fray and directly threaten the outcome of the war on the ground."

Hi AC,

We are all in the peanut gallery on the other side of the world, so I wouldn't get too stoked up about an opinion of the conflict.

I have heard that both sides have little ability to mount attacks. Russia has the advantage of expendable troops and artillery, but despite all the shelling and attack waves it has gained bugger all ground.

Russia's repeated exposure as a perpetrator of war atrocities at all levels along with repeated threats of nuclear annihilation of countries supporting Ukraine has been a major driver of pledges of military support.

Russia, whilst it has heavier strike power than Ukraine, is less capable at locating targets and less accurate. I also wonder whether a reduction in drone and missile strikes reflects a shortage of munitions.

With Russia losing troops, wasting munitions and possibly also suffering a degradation of its electronic warfare capabilities, I think that Ukraine will be taking its time to prepare a counteroffensive. I think that Ukraine will hold off until Putin calls another mobilisation unless they see opportunity sooner.

"Another delusion! China is having financial troubles at the moment and in spite of sabre-rattling, China cannot afford secondary sanctions and it has been very clearly warned as to what will happen if it supports Russia Militarily."

I guess that's why when Ursula and Macron went to China a week back with a carrot and a stick,
China sent Ursula packing and Macron left grovelling?

http://www.voanews.com/a/seeking-to-reset-relations-eu-leaders-pay-rare-visit-to-china/7036750.html
"President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron are to land in China on Wednesday seeking to "reset" ties with an important economic partner while broaching thorny issues like Ukraine and trade risks."

Ursula von der Leyen warns China not to send arms to Russia
http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2023/apr/06/ursula-von-der-leyen-warns-china-not-to-send-arms-to-russia-video
"Our US Master tells you to not arm Russia or mess with Taiwan"

Ursula von der Leyen left China through a regular terminal at the airport...
http://en.mriya.news/116376-ursula-von-der-leyen-left-china-through-a-regular-terminal-at-the-airport

Looks like they're really concerned about European trade hey SM humiliating the EU Commission President like that...
- More like China DGAF.

EU defends PR 'disaster' of China summit
http://euobserver.com/world/156909
- Looks like big tough mouth Ursula who's applied for the job of Grand Poobar of NATO got sent packing...

Moving on to the interesting stuff...
IMF released Real GDP growth numbers

World Economic Outlook (April 2023) - Real GDP growth
http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

Scroll on down the page to the section 'Related publications' and click on 'World Economic Outlook - A Rocky Recovery - April 2023
- Then go down to Page 9 'Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections'

United States 2022: 2.1% 2023: 1.6% 2024: 1.1%
China 2022: 3.0% 2023: 5.2% 2024: 4.5%
Russia 2022: -2.1% 2023: 0.7% 2024: 1.3%
India 2022: 6.8% 2023 5.9% 2024: 6.3%

France 2023 0.7%
Italy 2023 0.7%

So Russia will be doing as well as France and Italy next year and better than the US in 2024.
(Not bad for the most sanctioned nation on earth)
China's going quite well, not as good as India but nowhere near as bad as the US.
G7 descending, BRICS ascending.

- But that's ok, because SM know's everything.

Collective west hyperfocused on ruble, as Russian economy wins sanctions war
http://youtu.be/aUGO3437rv8

Not sure I know why I even bother sharing useful info with you shadowminister...

Hi Fester
"I have heard that both sides have little ability to mount attacks. Russia has the advantage of expendable troops and artillery, but despite all the shelling and attack waves it has gained bugger all ground."
- Ukraine spent 8 years building the 'Zelensky line': 3 layers of defense, when Bakhmut falls, they don't have anything else to fall back to, only basic defensive lines built quickly while Ukrainian troops are sent into the meat grinder.
Russia will be in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in a few months.

"Russia's repeated exposure as a perpetrator of war atrocities at all levels along with repeated threats of nuclear annihilation of countries supporting Ukraine has been a major driver of pledges of military support."
- I've already been through all this at one time or another, Ukraine building defensive positions in civilian areas, and using them as human shields, fake atrocities in Bucha, Mariupol etc. killing 'collaborators', false flag attacks on women, kids and elderly, even targeting their own captured Azov.

Here's a few nice little lists for all the Ukrainian supporters
- Go ahead and read a few of the comments as well

http://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1646167187814490116
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1646101792252649474

"repeated threats of nuclear annihilation"
They aren't nuclear threats... or maybe from Medvedev
(in regards to ICC arresting Putin or attacking Crimea they are, Lol)
Russia is actually just stating it's nuclear doctrine
It's America that changed their own nuclear doctrine, look that up
"With Russia losing troops, wasting munitions and possibly also suffering a degradation of its electronic warfare capabilities"
- western propaganda
"I think that Ukraine will be taking its time to prepare a counteroffensive."
- Washington gives the orders and Ukraine obeys
"I think that Ukraine will hold off until Putin calls another mobilisation unless they see opportunity sooner."
- It'd be sensible to hold off, they're unprepared, but Russia may break through and take a chunk of territory
Putin won't call for another mobilisation atm, maybe once the Ukrainians is underway, if they do well it'll give him more public support for it
"Reduction in missile attacks" true, but glide bombs are cheaper

Also some more economic info for shadowminister...
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1646486622907793414
"The annual inflation rate in Russia fell sharply to 3.5 percent in March of 2023, the lowest since July of 2020 and compared to 11 percent in the previous month, as the base year started to include the initial economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine."
- whatever that means...

AC,

A drop in inflation is a good thing. However, the devil is in the details. Simplistically inflation occurs when there is too much money chasing too few goods and services. Inflation drops when either the money supply drops or the goods supply increases.

Given that the supply of goods and services in Russia is unlikely to have increased, this would indicate that the cash supply has crashed.

With the crash in oil revenues and the massive increase in the cost of the war, the spending on services is being diverted to soldiers and weapons.

A handful of Ukrainians have beaten the Russians to a standstill in Bahkmut and are waiting for the ground to harden before bringing in the roughly 1000 new tanks and other armoured vehicles that they have recently received for their counter attack.

Russia is losing this war.

Meeting on economic issues - April 11, 2023
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70897

"As I said earlier, positive economic trends are continuing to grow. According to operational data, retail trade has been up by almost 25 percent since early April.

Railway loads are up as well. You and I are well aware that this is one of the most important indicators of what is happening in real life. In March, this indicator stood at about 2 percent, but in early April it was already 3.6 percent, both for domestic and export transportation.

There are reasons to believe that economic activity will continue to grow, which we can see from an important parameter like the business activity index. In March, it stood at 56.8 points, which is the third highest figure ever and clearly indicates the growing optimism and positive outlook of domestic business.

Overall, it can be said that the Russian economy continues to grow fast as part of the new growth model. As of late April, Russia's GDP will have grown a lot in real terms.

These economic dynamics are reflected in the budget indicators as well. In the first quarter of this year, the country's consolidated budget revenues exceeded 13 trillion rubles which is in line with last year's figures, but the dynamics are good overall.

Notably, non-oil-and-gas revenue grew by about 14 percent, or 1.4 trillion rubles, while oil-and-gas revenue is slightly down by about 1.3 trillion rubles, which is primarily due to the high base and pricing environment specifics on the global markets last year.

As expected, the situation will have changed by the end of the second quarter when oil prices will rise, and extra oil and gas revenue will begin to flow into the budget."

You can read the full transcript of the discussion from the link given above, but it seems that supply of goods and services in Russia has indeed increased.
I think I also heard that the weakness in the ruble and exchange rate from foreign currencies is having a positive impact.

Ukraine's hypocrisy exposed; Zelenksy 'buys Russian oil' to fuel battle tanks from U.S. money
http://youtu.be/LJoJImFz4Vg

I heard reports the Ukrainian government had skimmed 400 million off the cost of diesel - paid by the US and purchased from Russia through third parties.
Watch a few minutes of this...
http://youtu.be/tT0I9ZvzUEo

- Just like they skimmed off the cost of food for troops earlier in the war
Apparently the Ukrainian Generals and others are getting fed up because Zelensky is too greedy and taking too much for himself
- But this is the corruption you'd expect from Ukraine.

I think the info comes from a recent Seymour Hersh article.

Theres been quite a few scandals of war profiteering since the war began
http://www.politico.eu/article/defense-minister-reznikov-ukraine-corruption-probe-war-russia-zelenskyy/

AC,

Where did you get your figures? They differ considerably from that of the Russian reserve bank.

Consumer spending is down 10%, Wages in Ruble terms have not increased while inflation is up 11% year on year. So real wages are down by 10%. The ruble has dropped by 30% and oil and gas revenues have dropped by 50%.

Hi AC,

Your view from the peanut gallery must be much better than mine. Russia has huge resources and well educated, albeit brainwashed, citizens, yet its per capita gdp is two thirds of Japan, a bit over half of Germany and well under half of the USA. It should be well above all of them and on a par with Norway were it not for its belligerence and corrupt governance.

My guess is that the Russian forces will be split in three after the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Did you note that the Wagner mercenaries in Ukraine are now so depleted that they cannot maintain a 5km front? At least that means that quite a number of war criminals have been killed.

"Where did you get your figures? They differ considerably from that of the Russian reserve bank."
I haven't checked that, but it might be old data, I'm not sure.

Info from and IMF report can be found here:
World Economic Outlook (April 2023) - Real GDP growth
http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
Scroll on down the page to the section 'Related publications' and click on 'World Economic Outlook - A Rocky Recovery' article - from April 2023
- Then go down to Page 9 'Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections'

The meeting on the Russian economy came from Putin and Ministers from the Kremlin you can find it here:
Meeting on economic issues - April 11, 2023
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70897

And the 3.5% inflation rate I got from a twitter source, but it's also in an article from Bloomberg (linked below) and you can find it quoted on numerous sites on google (also linked below)

Blamed for Putinflation Abroad, Russia Now Sees Prices Cool
- Inflation’s below 4% target in March for first time since 2020
- Putin gets political boost as inflation decelerates sharply
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-12/blamed-for-putinflation-abroad-russia-is-now-seeing-prices-dive#xj4y7vzkg

http://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=Russia+inflation+rate+3.5%25+March

"Did you note that the Wagner mercenaries in Ukraine are now so depleted that they cannot maintain a 5km front?"

I haven't heard that, but you should probably also note that Russia is making progress (albeit slow) across a 1000km front.
Ukraine put future counteroffensives at risk (and I heard today that they have put off their counteroffensive, - ill-prepared for it as spoken about yesterday) they've throwing everything they and the west had trying to defend Bakhmut, and they're still going to lose it.

Ukraine is not winning in a war of territorial conquest, they're not winning in a war of attrition, and the collective west is not winning in its war against the Russian economy.
Meanwhile people keep dying.

Hi AC,

"Ukraine is not winning in a war of territorial conquest"

Ukraine is defending itself against an unprovoked invasion. Remember your comments about how the Ukrainians were getting hammered in Kherson, just before the Russian army made a hasty retreat across the Dnipro?

"they're not winning in a war of attrition"

They are, which is precisely why the last counteroffensive was successful. Bakhmut has cost Russia far more than Ukraine and has destroyed the threat of Wagner mercenaries.

"throwing everything they and the west had trying to defend Bakhmut, and they're still going to lose it"

Russia doesn't have Bakhmut yet, and I note that they have been throwing more of their forces into the fight of late. That is exactly what the Ukrainians want. The Ukrainian commanders realise that the chance of a successful counteroffensive improves with the depletion of Russian forces.

And remember the recent leak of Pentagon secret documents, the ones that Russia has little interest in discussing other than suggesting them to be fake and released by the US? That wouldn't be because they mention the infighting of the Russian military, the under-reporting of Russian casualties, and concerns that losses have been so great as to compromise their ability to hold captured territory would it? Apparently Putin doesn't know about the extent of Russian losses either as his advisors are too scared to tell him.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65260672

"Ukraine is defending itself against an unprovoked invasion. Remember your comments about how the Ukrainians were getting hammered in Kherson, just before the Russian army made a hasty retreat across the Dnipro?"

It's a misconception, the 'Great Kherson counteroffensive' went nowhere, Russians defended well. The tactical withdraw (albeit a retreat) occurred for several reasons, firstly logistical issues with resupply with ferries and pontoon bridges across the Dnieper, troops on the right bank (left side) of the Dnieper at risk from being swamped if Ukrainians blew up the Nova Karkhovka Dam, and finally the Russian troops were stretched thin as soldiers 6 month contracts had ended and many didn't sign up again and remaining troops were better off relocated to the left bank to create defensive lines around Melitopol in case Ukraine tried to cut the land bridge.
It was a sensible move by Surovikin and the withdrawl went smoothly. Also anytime Ukraine tried to move back into Kherson City they faced attack from across the Dnieper.

"They are, which is precisely why the last counteroffensive was successful. Bakhmut has cost Russia far more than Ukraine and has destroyed the threat of Wagner mercenaries."

Another misconception.
Ukraine faced Russian artillery, outgunned by a multiple of about 8 to 1, and were losing troops at a similar rate.
Wagner PMC isn't just made up of inmates, they're also ex-military, well supplied and better paid than Russian regulars. That the Ukrainian military has been largely decimated by them and everything the west had without great loss to the regular Russian army shows how good they actually performed. What's left of Bakhmut (western area) is about to be cut into smaller pieces.
http://youtu.be/c135xk-Nejs

"Russia doesn't have Bakhmut yet, and I note that they have been throwing more of their forces into the fight of late. That is exactly what the Ukrainians want. The Ukrainian commanders realise that the chance of a successful counteroffensive improves with the depletion of Russian forces."

Ukraine's lost so much air defense that Russian air force is operating more freely and Ukraine faces many new weapons being dropped on them.

Russia defeated Germany, don't underestimate them if they move to full mobilisation, China will arm them.

WW2: Battle Of Kursk (Intense Footage)
http://youtu.be/2pbR2JzMn2E

AC,

Any government can boost GDP by spending vast sums of money. Russia with a GDP a little bigger than Australia is running a deficit of US$40bn per month mostly financed by the huge reserves it built up. At this rate, Russia's reserves will be depleted by the end of the year.

Russia is also losing tanks, aircraft, artillery etc way faster than it can replace them and as far as hardware is concerned Russia is at about 1/2 of the strength of where it was a year ago. The Russian offensive was extremely expensive with regards to tanks etc for very few gains.

The Western world has 50x the GDP and manufacturing capacity of Russia and is now re-arming. Russia does not stand a chance.

Russia cannot win this war.

Hi AC,

"It's a misconception, the 'Great Kherson counteroffensive' went nowhere, Russians defended well."

A tactical retreat is a good choice for an army facing defeat. At the time you were saying that Ukraine got lucky in the north but faced the real Russian army in Kherson and got smashed. At least you were saying that before the Russian army got kicked out of Kherson.

Wagner forces used to operate over a 90km front. Thanks to Bakhmut they now operate over a 5km front with the assistance of the Russian army.

From my seat in the peanut gallery Ukraine is outgunned but has better eyes and better aim. Russia is forced to use meat waves to reduce the decimation of its military machine behind the front lines. Meanwhile the Ukrainian military is preparing a counteroffensive and its chance of success is increasing with the ongoing destruction of the Russian army.

Patience AC. It should only take a few months to find out how accurate your information is.

Fester,

The Wagner forces have been largely wiped out. At first, they asked for regular forces to hold the flanks as they'd run out of men so they could focus on the city. But the Ukrainians' tactics of creating a killing field for Russians, then moving back to another killing position has cost Wagner so many men that they now need regular forces to even make a showing in Bahkmut.

This is a perfect fighting retreat not like the rout of the Russians in Kharkiv and Kherson. My guess is that while Ukraine is hammering the Russian lines in the South the main offensive will be against the North.

Russia is losing this war and another mobilization is not going to help them.

Hi Shadowminister,

Wherever the Ukrainians attack they will need to be successful. The Russian army is big, dangerous and has no moral compass. The Ukrainians would be very vulnerable if an attack failed.

I suspect that they will employ the same tactic of rapid advance and cutting supplies. Where they attack will depend on having enough troops and equipment. I'd like to see them able to cut through to Melitopol and cut off the Crimean Peninsula, but they would need lots of tanks and aircraft to do that. I don't know how the Russian forces are spread, which would shape Ukrainian plans, but I think that Russia is losing capability faster, so I don't think that the Ukrainians are in a huge hurry. They have probably been using Bakhmut as a testing ground for strategies to fight the Russians.

I don't have ACs insight, so I will have to wait and see.

Hi Fester,
"At the time you were saying that Ukraine got lucky in the north but faced the real Russian army in Kherson and got smashed."

No you got it around the wrong way.
I said the withdrawal went smoothly in Kherson but was a debacle in Kharkov.

"Wagner forces used to operate over a 90km front. Thanks to Bakhmut they now operate over a 5km front with the assistance of the Russian army."

Yes they've taken a lot of casualties, but that means the Russian army took a lot less.

"Meanwhile the Ukrainian military is preparing a counteroffensive and its chance of success is increasing with the ongoing destruction of the Russian army."

I don't necessarily think so.
Firstly it shows their counteroffensive was not well prepared.
They used up more than they should've trying to defend Bakhmut, and now don't have enough troops, weapons and ammunition, and can't get more in time. Also the Pentagon documents release provides an excuse to delay it.

But finally, the longer they wait and try to stock up on what they need the more Russia destroys fuel and ammunition depots and reduces Ukrainian troop numbers, they've already been taking troops from other areas and sending them to Bakhmut, meaning other fronts are less well defended.

I'll give Bakhmut 2 to 3 weeks tops, before most of the city is taken except for the larger building in south western part of the city.
Taking it all depends on how long the last fighters can hold out for like in Mariupol. TRussia has fire control over all ways in and out.

"Where they attack will depend on having enough troops and equipment. I'd like to see them able to cut through to Melitopol and cut off the Crimean Peninsula, but they would need lots of tanks and aircraft to do that."

It seems to me that's exactly what Washington wants - Crimea.
It's going to be messy to achieve and will require a lot of fuel, tanks, drones and manpower to do it, and if it goes wrong, the entire counteroffensive will face annihilation.

If it gets messy in Crimea Russia will just drop a mini nuke on them, that's Russia territory 100% now.

Hi AC,

It would be a disaster for Ukraine if a counteroffensive failed, which is why they take their time. They still have troops to train, equipment to receive, and ground conditions need to be favourable. They are holding the front against the Russian army with as little as they can, but they are keeping a good eye on what is where.

Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons, not least because it would mean that the Russian forces would be fighting NATO instead of an army equipped with NATO hand me downs. I am sure that the repercussions of such an action have been made clear to Putin.

Hi Fester,
"Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons, not least because it would mean that the Russian forces would be fighting NATO instead of an army equipped with NATO hand me downs. I am sure that the repercussions of such an action have been made clear to Putin."

I'm talking about 'tactical nuclear weapons' not 'strategic nuclear weapons', of which Russia has about 2000 of them.
- These are also known as Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons (NSNW)

Russia’s Small Nukes are a Big Problem for European Security
http://www.heritage.org/global-politics/commentary/russias-small-nukes-are-big-problem-european-security

"Assessments based on open sources estimate that Russia has about 2,000 NSNWs. It is similarly assessed that the United States and NATO have about 200 NSNWs in their arsenal. It is postulated that half of those U.S.-NATO weapons are located in the United States and half are based in Europe as part of NATO’s nuclear forces.

While capable of significant destruction, these tactical nuclear weapons are lower in yield—or explosive power—and are meant for use on the battlefield against military installations or troop and equipment concentrations as opposed for use against counterforce or countervalue targets such as ICBM missile fields, command and control nodes, and or population centers."

To give yourself an idea of the damage I'm talking about go here (link below)
- And simulate a 1 kiloton nuclear detonation with 'airburst' over where you live (for reference)
http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

- This might be enough to do all sorts of damage against a counteroffensive if they tried to take Crimea, but not necessarily enough to start a nuclear war.
Drop one or two on a Ukrainian counteroffensive, and it's all over for the Ukraine counteroffensive.

Don't forget that Russia probably has these weapons in it's arsenal and Dmitry Medvedev has warned that Russia is prepared to use them in the case of Crimea.

Russia warns of nuclear retaliation if Ukraine tries to seize Crimea
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/russia-medvedev-ukraine-russia-crimea-nuclear-weapons-b1069741.html

"Dmitry Medvedev, who is currently the deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said Russia is prepared to use 'absolutely any weapon' in the event of an attack on Crimea"

...Just saying

AC,

Crimea is Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory and While it will be hard to take, it will also be very hard for the Russians to hold, as the Ukrainians can cut off water and power and there will not be one point where the Ukrainian missiles cannot reach.

The use of a Nuke would be very stupid as that is when NATO goes all in. Imagine Ukraine with 3000 M1 Abrams, tomahawk missiles etc while the Russian baltic and Pacific fleets are sunk and Russia sells zero oil.

As for Ukrainian preparation, you have been wrong just about 100% of the time so far.

As for Russian artillery:

"This overuse of artillery results in a number of issues. First, the high expenditure of rounds resulted in a staggering load on the Russian supply networks and logistic trains. Ukrainian reports claim that the Russians have depleted most of their artillery reserves. In addition to the rounds, the artillery pieces themselves are typically not made to handle firing that many rounds. Even with proper maintenance, the barrels must be replaced after a certain number of shots, and the Russians are likely depleting these barrels as well. These resupply lines have been a frequent target of Ukrainian artillery, drone and missile attacks...."

"The Ukrainians are not necessarily targeting the artillery pieces themselves. Indeed, the Ukrainians have only destroyed a small percentage of the Russian artillery carried into the war, with fewer than 400 pieces destroyed. Rather, once the Ukrainians know the location of the artillery cannons, they also know the general vicinity of the BTG. The Ukrainians can then use their arsenal of drones and electronic warfare systems to pinpoint Russian command posts, vehicles, and troop concentrations, which are subsequently targeted and destroyed...."

"Since the start of the invasion, very little has gone as planned for the Russian forces. The lack of training and experience, particularly by Russian officers, has led to the overuse of artillery. The Ukrainians have successfully exploited this issue, turning what should be a large Russian strength into one of their largest vulnerabilities."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/vikrammittal/2023/01/09/from-strength-to-vulnerability-the-decline-of-russian-artillery-in-the-ukraine-war/?sh=5016acce651c

Hi AC

" This might be enough to do all sorts of damage against a counteroffensive if they tried to take Crimea, but not necessarily enough to start a nuclear war."

Using a nuclear weapon makes it a nuclear war. If using low yield nuclear weapons was acceptable Russia would have used them already in places like Afghanistan and Syria, perhaps even in Chechnya. There is no acceptable nuclear option, and the discussion of such options by Russian elite admits the poor performance of their conventional forces.

"Using a nuclear weapon makes it a nuclear war."
- No, not necessarily.

Take note the US did it to Japan.
The question of whether it becomes a nuclear war is if the US decides to conduct a nuclear strike on a Russian city, to which Russian subs and land based RS-28 would respond in kind - then it's a nuclear war.

As a side note here, know that Russian air defence can intercept US nuclear missiles, but US cannot intercept Russian nuclear missiles.
- Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles have already been deployed to combat duty, the US can't hit them.

Russian troops get Avangard hypersonic missiles with blinding speed of 6.8 kilometers per second
http://youtu.be/4UCLuvhshnw

But we're dealing in hypothetical anyway, the biggest being an assumption that Ukraine can actually break through Russian defensive lines with an intact force enough to take Crimea which is 27,000 square kilometers of territory.

It's not going to happen.
The back of the Ukrainian military has already been broken in Bakhmut, their loss of that city will see a loss of morale for Ukrainian troops, a loss in support for the Ukrainian leadership by the citizenry sending so many men to die in vein, and a skepticism amongst world leaders for continued support of the war.

Things will likely change real quick before Ukraine can even launch their counteroffensive.
They're going to lose Bakhmut in two weeks, after that the Ukrainian military will crumble.
They've already been shooting their own men who were trying to surrender in Bakhmut, and the reason why they're doing this is because once some men surrender, more will.

I told you all it's game over for Ukraine, it's just a matter of time.
The bigger picture is that Ukraine is the end of the western empire, destroyed by it's own sanctions.

BRICS has a higher GDP than the G7, and the whole world is moving to de-dollarise. Without hegemony and control of the financial system the west can't sanction anyone.

The only question is will America go quietly.
Under Biden, it's doubtful, they're likely to start a war.

Hi shadowminister,
"The Ukrainians are not necessarily targeting the artillery pieces themselves. Indeed, the Ukrainians have only destroyed a small percentage of the Russian artillery carried into the war, with fewer than 400 pieces destroyed. Rather, once the Ukrainians know the location of the artillery cannons, they also know the general vicinity of the BTG. The Ukrainians can then use their arsenal of drones and electronic warfare systems to pinpoint Russian command posts, vehicles, and troop concentrations, which are subsequently targeted and destroyed...."

- Forget the artillery SM, without air defence Ukrainian military faces the Russian air force now.
Their counteroffensive should they even begin it will be completely destroyed, and if they wait, Russia will inflict more damage on fuel and ammunition depots, troops and armour, and Ukraine is already out of artillery shells, the Europeans couldn't come up with the 1 million shells they promised, and America had to go hat in hand borrowing from South Korea.

AC,

Your claim that Russia can intercept US nukes is wildly untrue. For example, the MX missile carries 10 independently targeted nuclear warheads and about 100 odd radar-identical decoys. Given Russia's almost complete inability to stop the HIMARS missiles, stopping more than one or two of these nukes is nearly impossible. The Sub based Trident missiles carry up to 12 thermonuclear heads which hit the target within 10 minutes of launch. Russia won't survive a nuclear exchange. Also, 6.8km/s is impossible. I believe you mean Mach 6.8 which is 2.3km/s

"The US Commerce Department on Wednesday (US time) imposed export controls on a total of 28 foreign companies for what it called "supporting Russia's military and defence industries", including 12 from China, Reuters reported." These 28 companies can no longer buy from or sell anything to the EU or US. Companies that trade with these companies risk being blacklisted too.

Secondly, Russia would be making a huge mistake if its aircraft get too close as the reports of the shortage of missiles omitted Manpads and were 2 months old, and since then there have been several shipments of replacements.

It looks as though Russia has run out of precision missiles having wasted $bns on civilian targets.

Lol, no mate not Mach 6.8 - Mach 20 - 27, 6.8km/s

At Blistering Speed Of ‘Mach 20’, Russia Says Its Avangard Hypersonic Missile To Team-Up With Sarmat ICMB To Boost Strike Capability
http://eurasiantimes.com/deadly-combo-sarmat-icmb-to-team-up-avangard-hypersonic-missile/

Avangard (hypersonic glide vehicle)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avangard_(hypersonic_glide_vehicle)
Maximum speed Mach 20–27 (Claimed)

Russia has been intercepting HIMARS
They've also been jamming JDAM's

>>"The US Commerce Department on Wednesday (US time) imposed export controls on a total of 28 foreign companies for what it called 'supporting Russia's military and defence industries', including 12 from China, Reuters reported." These 28 companies can no longer buy from or sell anything to the EU or US. Companies that trade with these companies risk being blacklisted too.<<

Keep sanctioning them, the West is hammering in the nails of it's own coffin.
The West is isolating itself.
I showed you the IMF report the other day, Russia's economy is projected to have more growth next year than the US

"It looks as though Russia has run out of precision missiles having wasted $bns on civilian targets."
- They're just saving them for the moment, maybe for Ukrainian counteroffensive, the guided and unguided bombs are doing just as much damage and are way cheaper.
Russia has taken out 400+ jets and some 300 helicopters, and previous missile strikes have completely degraded Ukrainian air defence.

Brazil's President Lula Declares War on US Dollar, While in China
http://youtu.be/PBnwcQkWgGw

Col. Douglas MacGregor: Ukraine Spells Doom for Western Hegemony
http://youtu.be/kelkjN38uss

Ukrainian Air Defenses Dwindling, West Scours World for Arms on Eve of "Spring Offensive"
http://youtu.be/n-qXMJOf9-M

"It looks as though Russia has run out of precision missiles having wasted $bns on civilian targets."

- I'm sure we'll see a lot less damage to civilian areas now that Ukrainian air defence has been largely destroyed.
I'll let you put two and two together on that one

It's not my fault you bought into all the western propaganda AKA lies.

AC,

So this warhead is going at the same speed as other intercontinental missiles. At this speed, it will light up in the infrared like a beacon and will be as easy to intercept as any other ballistic missile.

JDAMs also have inertial guidance, which means that they are slightly less accurate, but they still generally destroy their target. HIMARS can be intercepted, but as they are generally fired in batches the AA seldom manages to stop more than one.

Ukrainian missile defence has not been destroyed and new batteries have been installed around the cities. Russian missiles are so inaccurate that they often hit civilian areas which is a war crime, and even those missiles Russia is running out of.

That you only listen to Russian lies makes you a bit of a joke.

AC,
This is where you repeating Russian propaganda without checking just makes you look stupid.

Just before Russia's unprovoked invasion in Feb, Ukraine had only 225 fixed-wing aircraft including propeller-driven planes, cargo planes, trainers, spotters etc, and the tracking website shows that 93 have been destroyed including those hit on the ground.

So Russia's claim that they have shot down 400 jets is fricken ridiculous.

Yeah well maybe, but thats what people that know more than me have said
maybe I misheard it.

Over in your world you'd think Zelensky himself is the 'Ghost of Kiev' and single handedly shot down half the Russian air force.
It's pretty hard to take your side seriously when they lie continually.

402 jets + 256 helicopters
http://youtu.be/kelkjN38uss?t=311

Putin's air defenses destroy U.S.-made HIMARS; Russia kills 145 Ukrainian troops in Donetsk
http://youtu.be/g8JKokCz8l0

Do you want to know why they haven't yet surrounded Bakhmut?
- They've deliberately only surrounded the city on 3 sides so that Ukraine will desperately keep sending in more defenders for Russia to destroy.

"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
- The Russians are capitalising on this opportunity to destroy the Ukrainian military right there in Bakhmut.

Hi AC,

If the Russian army is so powerful then why doesn't it just take Ukraine? If Russia has so many accurate weapons then why not wipe out the Ukrainian military before it can even mount a counteroffensive? What purpose does it serve to keep the conflict going for so long if Russia could end it so easily? And why not use a few tactical nukes, or even chemical weapons? Maybe the Russian commanders could get some advice from the television presenters? Scream "Nuclear apocalypse!" and shower your enemy with meat waves. So much for big stick ideology in Russia.

Russia's central bank adds 1 mln oz of gold since start of Ukraine war
http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-cenbank-reserves-idAFL1N35V1W8

"In dollar-terms, the bank’s gold holdings were up 2.5% over the 13-month period, according to the bank’s calculations. Gold accounted for 23.6% of the bank’s $574.2 billion total reserves."

AC,

The financial statistic you should know is that according to the Russian central bank, the deficit for the first 10 weeks of 2023 has already reached the budget level for the entire year. Also, $300bn of Russia's $574bn reserves are frozen and the available $274bn at this rate won't last into 2024..

The Russian statistics are astounding. They have managed to destroy twice as many aircraft as Ukraine has ever possessed and they have destroyed 80 of the 20 HIMARS systems that the US supplied and are able to shoot down HIMARS missiles. However, Ukrainian Jets are still flying and HIMARS missiles are still destroying Russian logistics.

In Bahkmut, Ukrainian forces are killing Russians and then retreating and doing the same again. Anyone with the vaguest knowledge of tactics knows that this is far more costly for the attackers than the defenders. Wagner has been nearly wiped out, and the estimate is that Russia is losing 5 men for every man that Ukraine loses.

Bahkmut might be killing lots of Ukrainians but it is inflicting huge losses in men and machinery on the Russians who have gained virtually no territory in their entire offensive. Ukraine's losses are being replaced by the western alliance while Russia's losses are being replaced with antiques.

"The financial statistic you should know is that according to the Russian central bank, the deficit for the first 10 weeks of 2023 has already reached the budget level for the entire year. Also, $300bn of Russia's $574bn reserves are frozen and the available $274bn at this rate won't last into 2024.."
They never actually got that 300 bln, they 'can't find it'.
Apparently all they can account for was either 17 or 37 bln.

"The Russian statistics are astounding. They have managed to destroy twice as many aircraft as Ukraine has ever possessed and they have destroyed 80 of the 20 HIMARS systems that the US supplied and are able to shoot down HIMARS missiles."
- Well I'm just sharing what I'm told.
If you think the US told the truth about what it send then more fool you, and yes Pansir S1 has been upgraded to shoot down HIMARS missiles, Russia is even jamming US JDAM missiles as well.

"In Bahkmut, Ukrainian forces are killing Russians and then retreating and doing the same again."
- If you say so, if that's what you believe then more fool you.
I heard reports and saw footage that Russia is dropping FAB1500 (1 and a half tonne) bombs on west Bakhmut, in the last 24 hours.

Look at the reports on this feed territory, bombs.
http://twitter.com/squatsons
- I told you, 2 weeks.

"Anyone with the vaguest knowledge of tactics knows that this is far more costly for the attackers than the defenders."
- Not when you're outnumbered by artillery at a ratio of 8 to 1.
Especially TOS 1A thermobaric missiles and if you have air superiority or Ukraine runs out of shells.

"Bahkmut might be killing lots of Ukrainians but it is inflicting huge losses in men and machinery on the Russians who have gained virtually no territory in their entire offensive."

Keep dreaming, Ukraine is running out of troops.
When they run out, Russia will take everything.

Ukraine is Running Out of Soldiers
http://youtu.be/lcN5K0KhOSA

Military briefing: Ukraine’s ‘high-risk’ bid to breach Russia’s fortified frontline
http://www.ft.com/content/01a819c0-82f5-4eb3-b012-9dc97d93cde6

AC,

The $300bn frozen assets were in the same article that you quoted and clearly, you only believe what you want to.

"Western countries froze about $300 billion - almost half of Russia’s reserves at the time - that were held in their jurisdictions at the start of the conflict in a move which few in Moscow predicted the West would make."

http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-cenbank-reserves-idAFL1N35V1W8

You said "Well I'm just sharing what I'm told" Well I can sell you a bridge! That should be the first indication that the people you are listening to are lying.

EU has no clue about whereabouts of 86% of frozen Russian central bank assets — Bloomberg
Of $258 billion that were seized, not more than $36.4 billion has been located, the report said
http://tass.com/economy/1574329

Every single time shadowminister, you simply assume there's no basis for the things I say.
Maybe you want to buy a bridge?
I told you they 'can't find it'

You seem to ignore the 90% of things I write because you either refuse to believe it, are proven wrong or can't argue with the info from links I show that state it, and then try to nitpick the 10% of things I haven't provided links for.

It's like you have these little 'Aha!' moments thinking you've caught me out believing you already know better and then I show you where it's been stated and you crawl back into your hidey-hole.

AC,

You have yet to prove me wrong even once but you have been demonstrably wrong many times and 90% of what you post is pure bollocks.

That I don't answer your lengthy tirades point by point does not mean that I concede them to you. Most are too stupid for words and are accompanied by links to pro-Russian bloggers or quotes directly from Russian propaganda sources such as the destruction of 4x as many Himars systems that have ever been given to Ukraine or 2x as many aircraft as Ukraine ever had.

Remember 3 months ago when you claimed that Bakhmut was operationally surrounded and the Russians would take 1000s of Ukrainain prisoners?

Across Europe’s East in recent weeks, farmers have been protesting over Ukrainian grain flooding local markets and undercutting prices. Thousands of farmers in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Poland formed long convoys of tractors, blocking border crossings with farm vehicles that has resulted in the resignation of at least one leading minister. 

The romance with Ukraine is wearing off.

Hi shadowminister,
"You have yet to prove me wrong even once but you have been demonstrably wrong many times and 90% of what you post is pure bollocks."
I've proven you wrong many times, you just fail to acknowledge it when I do.
What was it 2 days ago, you said the speed of Russian nukes was impossible, and yesterday you spoke about the frozen Russian central bank reserves and on both occasions I showed you were wrong, not my fault that you'd rather get your info from the same people who claimed Iraq had WMD's, that vaccines are good for you, that Trump got peed on by prostitutes in Russia etc. etc.
You seem to believe everything, I question just about everything because I know the western corporate medias job is to mislead, misinform or persuade the general public, whereas you think only Russia and China do such things.
Western citizens are the most propagandised people on the planet, the worst part is they fail to even realise it.

Hey ttbn,
"Across Europe’s East in recent weeks, farmers have been protesting over Ukrainian grain flooding local markets and undercutting prices."
- Yes I've heard about it, a little bit of info here:

Ukrainian grain blockades and economic war
http://youtu.be/CPXAJQMJQAE?t=2876

Hi AC,

What I respect is that you think enough to have an opinion. Truth wont sway to opinion, so we will all see what unfolds with this horrible war in time. I like this fellow's reports:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8C2yyPrzag

From the above it appears that the Wagner terrorist group has been replaced by Russian army units. They have been using those big glide bombs you mentioned but the offensive faltered when their meat stocks ran low. I like the way the Ukrainians have been demolishing buildings after the Russians occupy them. There are large areas of rubble being created by both sides which is changing the nature of the battle.

And some ex Wagner terrorists admitted to killing children execution style. No culpability for their conduct in Russia.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8C2yyPrzag

Hi Fester,
Interesting, I guess it's good to see a report and an opinion from the other side for a change. I heard about a counterattack maybe yesterday, but I think my sources said Russians also launched one afterwards and took the territory back. There's been a bit of back and forther going on in these areas I think. It's also interesting to see the spin each side puts on its own actions, like for example how your guy claimed it was some kind of success the blow up their own cultural building when retreating, I can see the benefits but it was made in retreat nonetheless, but blown up for tactical reasons, to put Russian advances into a trap without cover.

I watched a video yesterday from a youtube channel I hadn't watched before, it was interesting in that it gives a full drone video showing the whole area including showing the cultural building they destroyed.
http://youtu.be/M397D14e_mE

I saw reports a little while ago that Ukraine is shelling near the ZPP and that people are being evacuated, I wonder whats going on there. I'm not sure they were ready for their big counterattack, but you never know.

Here's another report I often watch
http://youtu.be/LOGFV5ri8nM
And a more recent report from the same channel
http://youtu.be/P-8DMRUHyvM

btw, both your videos were the same ones.

AC,

Firstly there are $300bn of frozen Russian assets as even the Russian central bank has acknowledged.

You claimed that Russia had a hypersonic glide vehicle that could do match 20. Considering that that is the speed of every single ICBM from the 60s the term hypersonic is used for missiles that travel in the atmosphere, not in space. The moment the glide vehicle re-enters the atmosphere it slows right down otherwise it would simply burn up. All you proved is that you have no idea what you are talking about.

As far as secondary sanctions are concerned. All EU and US banks are now freezing or closing the accounts of non-resident Russians that could have been used to trade.

"Considering that that is the speed of every single ICBM from the 60s the term hypersonic is used for missiles that travel in the atmosphere, not in space."
It's true that the US Minuteman III travel over Mach 20

Hypersonic is a term used to denote any speed beyond Mach 5.
The terrm 'hypersonic glide vehicle' refers to the warheads of the MIRV re-entry vehicles speed and ability to change altitude and trajectory, not the speed of the missile itself.

Russia can launch the RS-28 Satan II, even fly them over the south pole instead of the north and hit the US from the south. They don't follow a predictable trajectory which makes them near on impossible to intercept.

"All EU and US banks are now freezing or closing the accounts of non-resident Russians that could have been used to trade."

- All the west is doing is sowing distrust of it's own western financial system and causing other nations to push ahead with de-dollarisation and finding ways to trade in their own currencies.

- The US is not simply screwing over a few Russians.
It's driving others to sell their US treasuries, isolating itself and destroying the reserve currency status of the dollar.

They are shooting themselves in both feet.
It will be the end of the US empire.

RBC: chewing gum became the most expensive product in Russia in a year

https://russian-rt-com.translate.goog/russia/news/1137978-rosstat-zhevatelnaya-rezinka-cena?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

"The average cost of chewing gum in Russia increased over the past year by more than 20%. According to RBC with reference to Rosstat, this product has become a leader in terms of cost increase.

It is noted that in March of this year, the price of a package of chewing gum was at the level of 39 rubles, while in March 2022 its cost was 32 rubles.

Among the reasons for the rise in prices are the disruption of supply chains and the suspension of foreign business due to sanctions, as well as an increase in the dollar."

Russias economy is in tatters, they're on their knees
Bad breath may well yet bring down the Russian government SM.
- If this isn't enough to get overthrow Putin then I don't know what will.

AC,

The Russian missile is a deadly ICBM, but the US, France and Britain also have missiles with similar capabilities and warheads that the Russians cannot stop. All of these missiles are hypersonic. Within a couple of hours of firing the missile 90% of Russians will be dead and Russia will have ceased to exist. While talking about a nuclear war might give you a hard-on not even Putin is that stupid.

The West is not just screwing over a few thousand it is shutting down just about every avenue for parallel imports. The US dollar is still king and the ruble is hardly worth the paper it is printed on outside Russia.

Did you actually read my earlier comment SM?
I made it pretty clear I wasn't talking about strategic nuclear weapons, of the type you use to destroy every city on the continent.
- I was talking about non-strategic or tactical nuclear weapons, there is a difference you know. Russia has a lot more of these than the west does, and I think it's a part of its nuclear doctrine to use them on the battlefield against an enemy combatants if absolutely necessary, not a city full of women, kids and elderly.
Alternatively the US has a first-strike nuclear doctrine in which it reserves the right to nuke anyone at anytime should its 'national interests' be threatened.

Russia is actually benefiting from a weaker ruble, they are a nation of commodities, when they sell / export, lets say for example in US dollars, then under a weakened ruble the exchange gives them significantly more ruble.
It works as a kind of failsafe, or insurance.

Hi AC,

I don't get the impression that it is that sort of war. What I see is Russia trying to make it a war of trenches and artillery. That is a war Russia can win. For the Ukrainians it is about amassing as much superior weaponry in as short a time possible. A successful counteroffensive is as much about giving Ukrainians hope as it is about defeating the Russian army.

Ukraine has the advantages of accuracy and range with artillery. Russia has been using kamikaze drones to go after the long range stuff but has been thwarted somewhat by nets and cages. The Ukrainians are now attaching larger bombs to their drones and using them kamikaze style with more effect now that they have more of them.

Apologies for the lack of a link. The story isn't hard to find, but given what happens to critics in Russia I am a little skeptical that ex Wagner soldiers would be so candid.

And if this is the status of Russia's mechanised armour then I'd guess their offensive capability is limited.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOQfkPI_4OQ

It looked like a BMP getting destroyed with an rpg or nlaw. The support BMP turned and fled, abandoning the crew of the first vehicle.

Hi Fester,
"I don't get the impression that it is that sort of war."
- There's no need for them at this point to go to such extremes, whilst Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson are fought over there's no real military threat to the the Russian motherland including Crimea, but if there was...

"What I see is Russia trying to make it a war of trenches and artillery. That is a war Russia can win."

Their strategy has been to slowly grind away and destroy the Ukrainian military.

Ukraine has victories of propaganda, it's all about the optics and holding every inch of territory at any cost.

Lots of horrible things happen in war by both sides, a lot of falsely attributed things too.
It wouldn't be beyond the Ukrainians to put on a dead Wagner soldiers uniform and them admit to atrocities for the propaganda value.
For the West and Ukrainian funding, it's all about selling the continuation of the war to western citizens.

Ukraine & the Globalist War Mongers - Col Doug Macgregor
http://www.youtube.com/live/gsfIuJgQc7o?feature=share

Hmmm. I think that many Russians know why they are missing out AC.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ba1huZurYKI

And Macgregor is pro Russian and predicted the annihilation of Ukraine within a few days, then revised his prediction to a few weeks. Just saying AC.

The Ukrainian defense is starting to collapse in Bakhmut
http://youtu.be/JtLmx0Tpz8I

Hi AC,

Yes, it is time for Ukraine to get out of Bakhmut, but 24 hours for Russia to take it sounds a bit hopeful and ignores some very accurate artillery in the area. I am guessing the Ukrainian commanders want to keep their troops alive and will make the call when conditions in the city start to favour Russia.

One question for you to think about: If Ukraine is using their entire force to defend Bakhmut then why doesn't Russia make advances on other parts of the front? My understanding is that there are areas of greater strategic importance than Bakhmut. The fact that they are creating defensive fortifications again suggests that Russia has little offensive capability. The defensive strategy will leave Russia vulnerable as they have limited and diminishing hardware spread out over a large front.

I saw this video once that showed how they build up defensive positions.
They are very well thought out, and it takes time to penetrate them, they can't just send wave after wave in without first taking out artillery and tanks, trying to storm these defensive positions without first taking those out results in too many of your own men being killed. So, it just takes time to do it while minimising losses.

I saw Ukraine take a bit of territory around Kremmina in the last few days.
Ukraine still has enough men to cover the entire line of contact, but they have been ground down to a point where they have to move battalions from other areas if they need to reinforce a position.

When they have troop losses now they have to use poorly trained conscripts to fill the gaps and maintain battalion strength, some reports say that some of these battalions are functioning at diminished troop numbers that they previously had.

Ukrainians are fighting hard and inflicting significant casualties I make no mistake about that.
Apparently Zelensky is not sending any more reinforcements into Bakhmut, I think the Russians had fire control over all roads in and out and too many were getting killed just trying to enter or exit (wounded) the city. Apparently there's only 5000 Ukrainians in Bakhmut now.

AC,

The particular missile you spoke of is an ICBM.

A huge crater appeared in Belgorad as one of Russia's incompetent pilots dropped a 1.5t glide bomb on a Russian city. These bombs are hugely inaccurate and their only benefit is to keep aircraft away from Ukrainian MANPADS.

The Russian ruble is starting to collapse as Russia starts printing money. The only benefit to Russia would be to make exports cheaper but also makes all imports more expensive. This will also boost inflation.

I also see that the promised tanks and armoured vehicles are starting to flood into Ukraine along with new artillery systems HIMARS etc for the upcoming to liberate occupied Ukraine.

I have heard that the reserve held back for the counter-offensive includes up to 400 000 trained soldiers. If this is true, Russia is in for a bad time.

AC,

Russia does not have fire control over all the roads into Bahkmut, also there were never more than 5000 men there at any one time.

Russia's offensive has been an epic failure with massive losses of men and equipment. Ukraine is ready to counter-attack and Russia is exhausted.

I remember a couple weeks back there was about 12000 Ukrainians in Bakhmut.
Zelensky was defending it at all costs.
Russians have overran the trenches at the big curve in the 0506 road and took a section of that road, which goes west out of Bakhmut to Chasiv Yar.
They've had fire control over that road for weeks as well as the 0504 road that goes through Ivanivske to Kostyantynivka. Ukrainians themselves blew up the bridge on this road over a month back.
The only way in and out now without taking fire is a muddy makeshift track that goes through fields.

The Battle for Bakhmut - Full Update. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.04.22
http://youtu.be/EPyWXaCRmQs+

What did I tell you a week ago? 2 weeks
- And it's looking to be fairly accurate.

"I have heard that the reserve held back for the counter-offensive includes up to 400 000 trained soldiers. If this is true, Russia is in for a bad time."

I'm sure they're going to give it a good crack, I don't hold out much hopes of success.
I think those pentagon documents were released deliberately to confuse and buy time to make sure everything was in place.

AC,

As I said, the Russians overran the trenches on the road but over-extended themselves, were pushed out, and no longer had fire control over the road. Check for yourself. Your predictions are wrong as usual.

Hi AC,

This article explains Russia's strategy of gaining ground in Ukraine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65313367

The main reason the strategy is working is because it exploits Ukraine's limited ammunition supply, but it is causing Russia large casualties and using lots of ammunition.

There are many unknowns in the conflict, not least the state of the Russian and Ukrainian armies.

The Ukrainian General Staff is urgently trying to change the defence tactics of Bakhmut/Avdeevka/Ugledar, due to the massive use of aerial bombs by Russian troops. The main principle was built around the creation of fortified areas from high-rise buildings, in which snipers were located on the upper floors, and warehouses and headquarters of units in the basements. In recent days, Russian troops have been conducting reconnaissance using drones, and then bombing the buildings, after which nothing remains of the houses, and those who are in the basements are simply buried alive, since there is no way to dismantle the rubble. The losses are so significant that the General Staff is forced to change the strategy for the defence of cities.

Naftogaz held talks with US oil companies about energy projects in Ukraine, Financial Times reports
http://www.reuters.com/business/energy/naftogaz-held-talks-with-big-us-oil-companies-about-ukraine-energy-projects-ft-2023-04-21/

Ukraine Pitches High Returns in Wartime Fire Sale of State Firms
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-20/ukraine-pitches-high-returns-in-wartime-fire-sale-of-state-firms#xj4y7vzkg

Send all the kids to war, destroy any future of the citizens to build their own nation, transfer all assets to the west

Citibank executive declares "we have to win this war" because there is such desire to "mobilize private capital" in Ukraine
http://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1647811834039136258

'Not one inch eastwards'
- Hope you're all happy with the end result.

Western military aid ‘not enough’ – Ukraine
http://www.rt.com/russia/575209-ukraine-melnik-west-aid/

Kiev needs ten times more arms from its foreign backers, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Melnik insists

Western nations should allocate 1% of their GDP for weapons deliveries to Ukraine during the country’s conflict with Russia, controversial Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Melnik has claimed.

“We are thankful to our allies for their military help. But: it is not enough,” Melnik wrote on Twitter on Saturday.

Do you dummies not see what I see? they want all western citizens to pay a tax in national debt and our own kids futures, so that America can stay on top, overthrow nations and rule the world with the western banking system, and so fossil fuel companies can make massive profits, all while they expect us to use less and scream about 'climate change'

- You think US politicians aren't invested in Military Industrial Complex companies (profiting from death) and Western Oil Companies?

Ahh, but it's all about 'peace' and 'national interests' and 'democracy'
- Conquest and profits more likely, you idiots.

"Kiev needs ten times more arms from its foreign backers, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Melnik insists"

Are you all so dumb that you don't see this statement is the equivalent of waving a white flag?
- If they need 10 times more arms, that might just be a sign that they are LOSING and have NO CHANCE of winning in the current situation.
- And who's going to fight when they run out of troops?

Russia Claims Ukrainian Troops Refuse Fight; West Loses Hope Ukraine Offensive, Talk Negotiations Grow
http://youtu.be/lH_WIdKbpxc

This whole thing going back to 2014 supporting the coup was a fools errand
And these idiots want to us to believe in the righteousness of a 'just war' so you'll accept sending our kids for a confrontation with China.
- We all know our pissweak leaders will capitulate to US demands and send our kids to their demise.

And it's just as likely to be all for nothing just like the warmongering idiots in the US miscalculated the end result of this stupid conflict in Ukraine.

AC,

It often appears that your posts are entirely wishful thinking as they are largely evidence-free. There is no sign that aerial bombing has increased other than the bomb the Russians dropped on Belgorad.

The Ukrainians have been using high-rise buildings and when they step back they destroy the buildings with mines usually after the Russians have occupied them leaving only rubble behind them with no cover for the Russians. The Ukrainians have achieved exactly what they planned in killing 10s of 1000s of Russians and destroying hundreds of tanks and other armoured vehicles. Also, Wagner is virtually destroyed and the majority of Russian forces are concentrated in Bahkmut leaving over 1000km of frontline thinly covered.

In the last 3 months, Ukraine has received 250 tanks and another 1500 armoured vehicles with many of these armoured vehicles carrying ATGMs that can destroy Russian tanks at 5km away. In the next 6 months, they are to receive the same again. On top of this Ukraine is receiving Patriot batteries and tons of AA missiles, nearly 100 M777 and other howitzers, long-range guided missiles etc.

There are signs that Ukraine is already on the east side of the Dnipro River and their artillery is pulverizing Russian front lines in the South from beyond the range of Russian artillery.

Russia is running out of tanks, vehicles, artillery, ammunition and men.

Russia is losing this war.

"It often appears that your posts are entirely wishful thinking as they are largely evidence-free. There is no sign that aerial bombing has increased other than the bomb the Russians dropped on Belgorad."

I think I'm going to call you 'charter boat' from now on.
RACQ Charter Boat Ad
http://youtu.be/UadHCpSjyew

Guided bombs — new Russian tactics in the Ukraine war?
http://www.dw.com/en/guided-bombs-new-russian-tactics-in-the-ukraine-war/a-65378079

Russia drops a 1,500 kg bomb on Ukraine for the first time in the war
http://youtu.be/wL54J3sYF14

Ukraine Issues Warning About New Modified Russian FAB-500 Aerial Bombs
http://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-issues-warning-about-new-modified-russian-fab-500-aerial-bombs-1793298

Russian Airpower Over Ukraine Increasing + More Shortcomings Appear Ahead Ukrainian Offensive
http://youtu.be/0OhMPY4RQSY

Twenty Russian Glide-Bombs Pummel Ukrainian Forces Every Day. Some Weigh A Whopping 3,300 Pounds
http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/22/twenty-russian-glide-bombs-pummel-ukrainian-forces-every-day-some-weigh-a-whopping-3300-pounds/?sh=10a9d803b680

‘An extremely big threat’: Russian glide bombs make their debut in the war
http://wavellroom.com/2023/04/17/russian-glide-bombs/

Guided and glide bombs: new feature in Ukraine war
http://asiatimes.com/2023/04/guided-and-glide-bombs-new-feature-in-ukraine-war/

"Surprisingly, the US-supplied weapons have not been effective and have been intercepted by the Russians."

Here’s an example after FAB.
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1650087482430717953

Russia can hit anywhere anytime, even NATO manned command and control bunkers can be hit with Mach 12 Kinzhal Hypersonic missiles and there's NOTHING the west can do to stop them.

Everything I say is BS and all my statements are proven wrong time and again hey Charter boat?
And everything you say is spot, well because you said so of course.

- Go back to sleep charter boat.

http://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1650464588985516032
http://twitter.com/Blackrussiantv/status/1649397497742204931
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1649785884596932609
http://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1649371937062232066
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1648053936333676544
http://twitter.com/ILRUSSO12/status/1649121742663581705

AC,

I will have to call you Baldrick as "village idiot" is already taken:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGxAYeeyoIc&ab_channel=63CAMART

So Baldrick, your only reference to the massive use of Russian glide bombs is a Forbes article that quotes a Russian magazine which claims that up to 20 a day are being used. However, there are very few records of them being used and none of them hit anything of value, unlike the JDAMS and HIMARS.

Similarly, the Kinzal missile from the Soviet era, while very fast is lucky to hit within 200m of the target.

This is yet another BS post of yours.

Hi AC

"- If they need 10 times more arms, that might just be a sign that they are LOSING and have NO CHANCE of winning in the current situation"

What army doesn't want more arms? Russia would no doubt like many thousands of tanks, apcs, millions of artillery rounds and a few hundred thousand soldiers to replace its soldiers in this unprovoked act of terrorism.

My understanding is that the ground is still too muddy for a counteroffensive, so Ukraine is instead conducting a number of smaller actions. Russia's siege of Bakhmut may be successfully concluded in a week or two, but how is leveling a city an achievement? It certainly doesn't look like a liberation.

Lots of unknowns AC, but Russia might face a worsening situation if Ukraine gets more weapons. Russia has been protecting its armour with waves of infantry, but if Ukraine gets more weapons Russia will have to sacrifice more troops to maintain that protection. I also note that Russia is going on the defensive which will make it more vulnerable to getting its hardware picked off. Ukraine seems to be using this advantage to cross the Dnipro and put pressure on Russian forces in Kherson. Russia will face similar problems elsewhere on the front if it diverts troops to provide reinforcement.

Oh dear.

Did you hear about where it was noted inside those recent Pentagon leaks that Ukraine is losing 7 men for every 1 Russian?

It may be news to you both, but it was nothing we on the Russian side haven't already known for a long time already.
Some even say thats a conservative estimate in regards to Ukrainian casualties.

Khromovo Has Fallen.
http://youtu.be/84KYrDdU2cI
- Obviously that means the 0506 'Road of Death' has been cut off as well.

US War Propaganda Exposed w/ Ray McGovern, Alexander Mercouris and Glenn Diesen
http://youtu.be/gX6InYJx2Gc

Putin's men foil Ukraine's counteroffensive in Bakhmut | Zelensky left red-faced
http://youtu.be/9iayqVi2WK8

"Ukraine seems to be using this advantage to cross the Dnipro and put pressure on Russian forces in Kherson."

It is a little concerning they're on the left bank of the Dnieper, but they've made themselves sitting ducks where they are, they can't dig trenches or dugouts in that terrain and are exposed to easy attack.

FAB-500s Cause Utter Destruction | Russian Forces Recapture Valuable Territory 25/04/23
http://youtu.be/Ucvm_-j_ubw

Hi AC,

I guess we will find out as the conflict unfolds, but I would find it odd for a large army inflicting huge casualties to suddenly go on the defensive. Russia has been claiming the imminent fall of Bakhmut for many months now. It will fall as eventually there will be nothing left of it.

AC,

1- The original Pentagon papers estimated that Russians were losing up to 7 men for every one that Ukraine was losing. The second version was clearly doctored by a pro-Russian blogger who reversed the figures.

It is common knowledge that people attacking entrenched positions lose substantially more than the defenders. That was the purpose of Ukraine in defending Bahkmut and keeping the rest of the lines weak ahead of the major counter-offensive.

2- Kromova has not fallen and the highway is still open. This happens when taking an unknown blogger's opinion as gospel.

3 - Anything that Alexander Mercouris says is unsubstantiated wishful thinking.

4- The only counter-offensives in Bahkmut were to push Russians away from the road which was largely successful.

5. The movement on the Dnipro was primarily Ukraine taking control of the islands. Initially, Russia was using mortars on these islands to hit Kherson City. They can't do this now. The other objective was to supply and train partisans that are blowing up infrastructure and killing Russians behind the lines.

7 The force being built up includes 100 000s of soldiers 837 tanks, 1000 armoured vehicles and a couple of Patriot systems to clear the area of Russian aircraft.

8 I see another Russian ship got hit by a water drone in Sevastopol.

9 Ukraine is testing a new missile system they have built that can reach 300km. They are also bleeding Crimea's anti-aircraft systems with consistent drone attacks.

Hi AC,

The supply road is not under Russian control yet. The Ukrainians are developing innovative ways to fight the Russian infantry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5S7TqFQlrrk

"The second version was clearly doctored by a pro-Russian blogger who reversed the figures."
- More likely the second version was doctored by a US government source, to play to the confirmation bias of people like yourself, who have been swallowing the propaganda and lies tailored specifically for your benefit since day one.

"It is common knowledge that people attacking entrenched positions lose substantially more than the defenders."
- Not when Russians have an 8 to 1 advantage in artillery, as well as TOS 1A heavy flamethrowers, air superiority and FAB 500 and FAB 1500 bombs, not to mention Ukrainians are so short on shells they may as well be fighting with sticks and stones.

"Kromova has not fallen and the highway is still open."
- Well I hate to inform you...

Bakhmut Is In The Cauldron.
http://youtu.be/11Wu3jw4c-s

"Russia was using mortars on these islands to hit Kherson City. They can't do this now."
- Russia can hit ANYWHERE IT WANTS IN UKRAINE, ANYTIME.
They are called hypersonic missiles, and no air defense the west provides can stop them.

"The force being built up includes 100 000s of soldiers 837 tanks, 1000 armoured vehicles and a couple of Patriot systems to clear the area of Russian aircraft."
- Russia will blow those Patriots up then it will hit all that other stuff with their air force and Kornets. Half of those 'tanks' don't even have tracks and are outdated junk, not up to the task, and Russia has sent in T-14 Armada's and testing new mortar systems...
- And if they really have all that why did their Bakhmut unblocking operation / counteroffensive fail?
I thought Zelensky wanted to hold Bakhmut 'At all costs'
- Was even waving a flag signed by the fighters there around the US House of Congress saying Ukraine will not lose another city, wa supposed to have taken Donetsk City back by now?
Apparently there's 2 to 3 battalions trapped in Bakhmut.
- You're in denial, you think Ukraine is winning.

Go have another sip of Kool Aid, charter boat.

Also if Russia is tracking fuel and ammunition supplies and transfers and blowing them up, how is a Ukrainian counteroffensive going to manage sustained offensive operations with limited air defense?

837 tanks will run out of fuel pushing into Russian held territory, and they are all going to be destroyed.
- If they even survive to be a part of the coming counteroffensive in the first place.
Ukraine right now is probably losing more than it's gathering for the operation, and they delayed it because they're not ready, and they know the chance of success isn't good, and they'll be forced to the negotiating table under Russian terms when it fails.

Baldrick,

Now you are just raving. The Ukrainian tanks are fully ready for battle. Russia has not destroyed any large ammo and fuel dumps because none of them are within range and all of them are dispersed. Russia has nearly run out of large missiles and cannot blow up Ukrainian playgrounds or hospitals for a while.

Russia is racking up debt and paying for the war from reserves. By 2024 these reserves will have run out and Russia will start going bankrupt.

Russia is losing this war.

"because none of them are within range"
- [rolls eyes] everything's within range.

"By 2024 these reserves will have run out and Russia will start going bankrupt."
- Russia is projected by the IMF to be doing better than the US in 2024.

You just refuse to listen to anything that doesn't support your pre-existing beliefs.

"Ukraine will need 4 to 6 times as many troops as Moscow has fielded if it wishes the break through the Russian defenses."

http://www.youtube.com/live/f9uv2uN2E5s?feature=share

- So good luck Ukraine, with no air cover they're going to need it.
No surprise their great spring offensive has been postponed.

Baldrick,

Have you wondered why there are so many spectacular photos and videos of Russian ammo dumps exploding but none of the Ukrainian dumps exploding?

There are several factors against the Russians:
1 their logistics planning is crap
2 They tend to build large ammunition stores near the front lines
3 The occupied territories are full of people that hate the Russians and are happy to tell the Ukrainians where the dumps and dormitories are.
4. The US and its allies have fantastic satellites and spy planes.
5 The HIMARS systems are super accurate and have a long range.

For the Ukrainians.
1 Their logistics are run along Nato lines
2 They build small well-concealed ammunition dumps
3 They are not occupying an area where the civilians hate them
4 Russian artillery is inaccurate and has a shorter range.
5 Russian Satellites are old and of little use.
6 Russian missiles are few and inaccurate.

For the Ukrainians

Hi AC,

Bakhmut is yet to be taken by Russia so the frustrated Russian army has targeted women and kids again in cowardly strikes. Well, I guess it is better to play to your strengths, especially when this is what happens when Russia tries to engage in a conventional war:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxABIwf3ASg

It never ceases to amaze me how easily some people can buy into whatever they're spoonfed, and not doubt the stories or think that they would never be the targets of propaganda or misinformation.

When it comes to wars the west is actively involved in, more than anything else the corporate media's job is to mislead, misinform or persuade the general public.

They're not there to inform you Fester.
They shape the battlefield at home with propaganda.
I just wish you people would wake up and see it.

I used to feel like I had a war against stupid
That the world is becoming so crazy that people need to stop and think and call out stupid wherever it raises it ugly head.
Now part of me thinks, hell let stupid be stupid.
- If you want to fall for whatever they tell you, go ahead.

9 civilians including a child were killed in Donetsk today and not a word about it, this happens every day.
If it was in Ukraine everyone is shouting from the rooftops but when it doesn’t suit the narrative it’s completely ignored.

Ukraine even shelled a cathedral during an Easter service.
https://tass.com/russia/1604957

You only hear what you're spoonfed sorry Fester.
I feel sorry for the women and kids you're referring to but it happens every day on the other side of the conflict.
How do you know this wasn't the result of Ukrainian air defenses?
They wouldn't tell you the truth if it was, would they?

Ukrainian air defenses blew up a tractor in Poland and who did they try to blame it on?
Of course, Putin did it.
Car won't start, your phone battery goes flat - Putin did it.
Your kid gets in trouble at school - Well that's Putin's fault.
Your cat pisses on the floor - also Putin's fault.

I suppose they are going to need a distraction narrative
'Blame Putin for everything horrible since they are about to lose Bakhmut and their counter-offensive is in doubt',
- firstly of succeeding and secondly of even happening

They're going to need a lot of 'Bad Putin' stories to distract and manipulate everyone with that reality about to hit the news cycle...
- Ukraine probably blew up the residential building themselves on purpose for all we know.

Everything for Ukraine is about the information war and the optics.
If Russia did it deliberately, you can bet there were military related people or assets in the building.

Hi AC,

I don't think the Ukrainians have much ammunition to waste. Remember that the war is in Ukraine, not Russia, so there are no Russian women and kids being killed. You might also note the recent story of Russian soldiers claiming to have been involved in the "separatist" conflict since its inception, something that Russia has always denied.

https://spravdi.gov.ua/en/world-news-agencies-and-russian-narratives-what-words-not-to-use-to-describe-the-war/

Bakhmut is yet to fall and the Russian Army has given responsibility for the siege back to Prigozhin. He looks very glum indeed, not at all like a guy about to have a big victory.

"I don't think the Ukrainians have much ammunition to waste. Remember that the war is in Ukraine, not Russia, so there are no Russian women and kids being killed."
- That almost makes what they're doing after a US sponsored coup that much worse;
Ukrainians willfully attacking other Ukrainians, many women and kids there too.
- The thing is Ukraine sees the separatists as terrorists and inflicts terror upon them, willfully.

Haven't read all your article yet, but what I have read supports what I said earlier, Ukraine is overly focused on fighting an information war.

As for Bakhmut, its only a matter of days before thats finished.
Ukraine's not going to mount some miraculous effort and take it back from here.
They're not going to stay holed up in buildings for months, Russia will bomb those buildings into rubble.
Arguing the city has yet to fall is kind of pointless.
Wherever Ukrainians are in the city now, Wagner PMC is coming at you head on and on both flanks.
It's over for Ukraine in Bakhmut.

They're just sending more men to their deaths trying to defend it and buy time, and mostly for political purposes I might add.

Ukraine put far too much into defending Bakhmut, and it has cost them an entire army. Russia has been happy to grind away and destroy them there.

It's just like the missile attacks on the electrical infrastructure.
If Russia wanted to put that out of action permanently I would've done so a long time ago.
They just picked at it, enough for Ukraine to keep repairing and defending it.
The real target was Ukraine's air defense, and to force them to completely diminish their stock of S300 missiles, BUK etc.
- Now it's all gone.

The West plays checkers and Putin plays chess.
It won't be too long before it's checkmate, and game over.
The west knows that everything rides on the coming counteroffensive though, which is why they postponed it.

Baldrick,

You claim that everyone else is being spoonfed by just about every news agency in the West yet you quote solely from Russian propaganda. As you have been saying for months, Bahkmut will fall in days. You've been wrong many times before and have zero credibility.

Russia's great offensive that you were promising was a failure and has squandered the 300 000 conscripts from last year so the war criminal Putin is now looking at conscripting another 400 000 to die in Ukraine.

Russia can no longer protect anything in Crimea as the Sevastopol oil depot blows up.

Russia is losing this war

Hi AC,

I think that you are the one swallowing all the propaganda. As the histories of once aggressive nations like Germany shows, cooperation and industry give far better outcomes than belligerence and terrorism. I note that Russia's propaganda machine is now pushing the line that Russians are seeing a great increase in their prosperity thanks to Putin. Perhaps they could use some of their new found wealth to rebuild their decimated armour and air defences? At least then they might have the capacity to assault the Ukrainian forces without using suicide squads.

Russia is a terrorist nation AC. I think its army, although massive, is near the point of suffering a critical loss of equipment. Their targeting of civilians in Ukraine is winning them no friends.

Hmmm...
Russia is not necessarily the aggressor here, you're missing the elephants in the room.
This was always a proxy war by the west against Russia until it was forced to act against the Kiev regime co-opted by the West after the Maidan.

And then there's the other elephant in the room as well.
NO NATO membership for Ukraine,

NYET MEANS NYET
http://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html

This was Russia's position back in 2008 when (current) CIA director Willaim Burns (Then US ambassador for Russia) stated so himself.

And the US under Biden isn't backing down no matter how many Ukrainians have to die for it.

NYET MEANS NYET
NYET MEANS NYET
NYET MEANS NYET
NYET MEANS NYET
NYET MEANS NYET
NYET MEANS NYET
NYET MEANS NYET
NYET MEANS NYET
NYET MEANS NYET
NYET MEANS NYET

How many have to die till you get it?

America thinks that ONLY IT has national security interests.
- NYET MEANS NYET -

"Their targeting of civilians in Ukraine is winning them no friends."
- If that's what you want to foolishly and naively believe is the real story...

The problem with western citizens is that they believe only nations like Russia, China and Iran are they types of nations who engage in propaganda.

The problem is that western citizens are subjected to probably way more propaganda than those other countries, our nations are so full of gullible citizens, and the reason why they are so gullible is that they can't believe that propaganda is actually being directed at them.
- And so they are far more naive and believe everything they're told.
At least soviet citizens knew they were being lied to.
Ours don't or refuse to believe that they are.

The Ukrainian counter offensive will begin in the next few days - maybe a few weeks,
- Weather permitting.

It's all designed to create a shock that leads to Putins ousting I believe.
I guess we'll soon see how it all pans out.
Russia's trying to finish up asap in Bakhmut I think.

I don't doubt the West has put everything into planning this.

Hi AC,

Look at the authoritarian control of the narrative in Russia. Journalists are not allowed to be openly critical of the war and could be jailed for expressing an unfavourable opinion, as could Russian citizens. This fellow is serving a twenty-five year sentence for being openly critical of the war and Putin's regime:

https://www.9news.com.au/world/vladimir-karamurza-jailed-top-kremlin-critic-convicted-of-treason-given-25-years/72be460c-eced-4e63-a4dc-557bcfe27f81

You are right in saying that the truth might be different from what I think, but I would suggest that believing the Russian narrative as you do is less likely to give a true picture. According to your sources the Ukrainian defences are about to collapse and all of their western weapons are about to be destroyed. My view is that the Ukrainian army could release a large chunk of territory from Russian occupation within a few months and may even give Putin a nice present for his victory parade.

Let's see how things turn out.

"Journalists are not allowed to be openly critical of the war and could be jailed for expressing an unfavourable opinion, as could Russian citizens."

When are you going to see that the reason why this is is not because these nations WANT to act like power mad dictatorships, it's because it's all they can do to prevent the west deliberately causing civil unrest in an effort to conduct regime change and overthrows.

So until the West starts to act differently, in many of it's foreign policies, then this is how it has to be.
Sometimes they lock up the right people those who wish for civil unrest and turmoil, and sometimes innocent people and / or kids with nothing to do with anything end up arrested.
- But if you go soft, those who wish to do harm can make inroads

When is the coin going to drop?
What choice do they have except to act this way to defend their sovereignty against hostile foreign nations?
- Who use 'democracy' as a weapon to install leaders favourable to their own foreign interests.
When will you actually get it, and understand how the world actually works?

When you say what you say, because that's how you think,
Do you not realise that I think something completely different?
- If you don't learn to see the bigger picture, you'll never understand things for what they are.

Some pretty accurate drone flying here.
These is he fate of western tanks and APC's without air cover.
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1652601941887954944

"My view is that the Ukrainian army could release a large chunk of territory from Russian occupation within a few months and may even give Putin a nice present for his victory parade."

Maybe, they didn't postpone the counteroffensive for fun.
I'm sure they have something well planned out up their sleeve they needed more preparation time for.
It'll happen within the next two weeks, and as you say all of us in the peanut gallery will just have sit back and watch and see how it all unfolds.

Baldrick,

No one is claiming that there is no propaganda from the West, however, the Russian propaganda is so blatant that it is ridiculous.

The reason that Nato expanded was that Russia kept attacking its neighbours and ignored any treaties and promises it had made. Russia was not forced into attacking Ukraine, but now its unprovoked aggression is going to cost Russia dearly.

Russia cannot win this war with 50 OECD countries supporting Ukraine.

In the last few months, Ukraine has been supplied with about 240 tanks 1500 armoured vehicles, 200 howitzers plus about 1m rounds of ammunition, anti-aircraft systems etc.

Ukraine is busy destroying Russian logistics in the South as a precursor to the counter-offensive.

Russia is losing this war

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uM-xZ-3U1ak&ab_channel=SBSNews

Hi AC,

"When are you going to see that the reason why this is is not because these nations WANT to act like power mad dictatorships, it's because it's all they can do to prevent the west deliberately causing civil unrest in an effort to conduct regime change and overthrows."

That was the agenda of the USSR during the cold war. Despite this, democratic nations have kept the press free and have rightly allowed a great freedom for citizens to express opinions. What Russia is conducting in Ukraine is not a humanitarian mission. It is an unprovoked campaign of indiscriminate murder, destruction and terror.

The fact that we can express such opinions openly I see as a triumph of our political system. I only wish that people like sm might appreciate this triumph instead of using it as an opportunity to attack those with a differing opinion. Russia's criminal kleptocracy has been as horrible to its own citizens as it has been to Ukrainians, so is it any wonder that all those ex Soviet nations without Russian puppet governments want to protect themselves from a Russian invasion?

As I observe the Russian vox pop, I am always impressed at how decent and educated Russians are. I am sickened by the thought of them being killed in Putin's terrorist war. Many comment that they could be jailed for giving an opinion, and one fellow even quipped that the only people who believed Russian media were grandpas and government.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SI50---L6IU

Russia wipes out Ukrainian depots in Dnipro; Tonnes of ammo for counteroffensive blown to bits
http://youtu.be/Aa1sRGavMpI

Massive Missile Strike. The Ukrainians Has Ammo Starvation. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.05.01
http://youtu.be/LOSMtyV6AiE

"Many comment that they could be jailed for giving an opinion, and one fellow even quipped that the only people who believed Russian media were grandpas and government."

It's funny how the West strongarms other countries with economic war (sanctions) and regime changes to suit its own agenda.

These young people think the country isn't progressing, yet Russia is the most sanctioned country on earth and even the IMF states that Russia's economy will grow faster in 2024 than the US economy.
Imagine where they would be if the West wasn't waging economic war against them - for the purposes of creating dissatisfaction amongst the citizens in the hope they will rise up and oust Putin.

The US likes to keep nations that don't comply in a state of disaster with their foot on their throat, for leverage, -think I'm wrong?
http://twitter.com/aaronjmate/status/1409645139648122882?lang=en
- The average young person doesn't understand this, the average age on this forum is probably over 60 yet even many here don't get it.

[Cont.]
Secondly we don't know if the Youtube content creator cherry-picked the age of people he spoke to, or simply chose not post the opinions of those people he spoke with who disagreed, and further the fact he earns an income from YouTube videos shows that the content creator himself is likely pro-west and earns an income from this Western platform (YouTube).

All these small facts matter, and draw a bigger picture than the one portrayed.
- Just like the facts about Russian 'atrocities' and 'targeting of civilians' and 'stolen kids' also matter.
Dig down to the truth and you'll find a completely different story than the one the media is portraying.

Finally the statement 'only people who believed Russian media were grandpas and government'., what does that say?
'Grandpas' - i.e - people who lived in the Soviet era and have a greater life experience and understanding for the bigger picture than Russian millennials, who probably don't even comprehend that there's a relationship between the lack of prosperity and US sanctions.

OR are so lacking in knowledge they don't comprehend sovereignty and want Putin to go so there is prosperity, but don't realise they will become a vassal state of the United states and US companies will robs their nations wealth.

Look at our millenials, half of them wouldn't even know basic things, like who Albo is or what political party he's the leader of for example.

01 May: Russians ON QUARANTINE! DEFENSE LINE IS EMPTY!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ri2rBSrYXwU

This is curious, I haven't watched it yet but found the video thumbnail interesting.

'They caught a fatal disease'
'SUDDEN PLAGUE OUTBREAK'

Is it a mere coincidence, this close to their counteroffensive?
Especially given the hidden truth about Ukrainian biolabs the US tried to deny existed for months and the reason why they went to extreme lengths to shut them down and hide what they were doing.

- Viruses, maybe potentially like COVID that would specifically target and affect people with Russian ethnicity, (but that would also include Ukrainians too one would assume)

In any case I find talk of this at this time quite curious, and perhaps also somewhat nefarious.

- But I think Russia may have wiped the optimism off their counteroffensive plans with the recent missile strikes in Pavlograd and elsewhere.
They destroyed hundreds of tonnes of ammunition, 9 command and control centres, hundreds of officers, and perhaps many newly trained troops for the counteroffensive, blew up rail lines and rail depots and don't forget a couple weeks back they destroyed a 70,000-tonne fuel depot near Zaporizhzhia.
Apparently since the war has begun Ukraine has lost some 100K armoured fighting vehicles.

Russia's Dnipro blitz deprives Ukrainian brigades of arms; Kyiv's counteroffensive plans crushed
http://youtu.be/EpBfXRJiGZw

Putin's Bloody Missile Attack Is Horrifying
http://youtu.be/ZoatnqiIs6o

Bakhmut Endgame | ALL HELL BROKE LOOSE | Bakhmut Front Update 02/05/23
http://youtu.be/rGbvF5whJW4

Baldrick,

For the first time, Russia hit one of many ammo dumps after most missiles hit civilian areas while Russia's fuel for the black sea fleet burnt. This is about the 20th time you claimed that the Ukrainians have run out of ammo while the Russians are dying in their 1000s and illegal Russian immigrants in Crimea are fleeing.

The Russian economy is tanking with the only sector not in deep recession being the military funded by huge budget deficits.

Russia is bravely retreating in Kherson, Andivka, Marinka, etc

Russia is losing this war they illegally started.

"For the first time, Russia hit one of many ammo dumps after most missiles hit civilian areas while Russia's fuel for the black sea fleet burnt."

I think what you meant to say was that the Ukrainian air defence keeps on hitting residential buildings, lucky for the people living there that Ukrainian air defense is almost completely wiped out or out of missiles.

"This is about the 20th time you claimed that the Ukrainians have run out of ammo while the Russians are dying in their 1000s and illegal Russian immigrants in Crimea are fleeing."

Only according the the lying Kiev regime, where you get your info.
And Ukraine is running out of men to fight, and Russians aren't immigrants in Crimea, because Crimea is Russia.

"The Russian economy is tanking with the only sector not in deep recession being the military funded by huge budget deficits."
- The Russian economy is projected to do better than the US next year, how many times must I state the facts, which you refuse to accept?

"Russia is bravely retreating in Kherson, Andivka, Marinka, etc"
- For Russia its a war of attrition of the Ukrainian armed forces not necessarily a war of territorial conquest.
You just keep listening to people who frame it in a way that will keep you hoping and coping.
Hows that working out?

"Russia is losing this war they illegally started."
- Russia didn't start it dumptyhead, it started in 2014.
Not my fault you parrot people who know gullible morons like yourself will beat the drums for them, regardless of the facts.
They're banking on the likes of you and your kinds idiocracy.

"Russia is losing this war"
- Funny how Ukraine is completely destroyed and 15 million Ukrainians have fled, most having no plans to return.
Is that what you call a win for Ukrainians, running for the hills?
- I wouldn't be going back either, the country's nonviable and billions in debt, everything sold off at pennies on the pound to any westerner with money the corrupt Ukrainian regime can get their mitts on.

Russia illegally started the war in 2014 and again in 2022

Hi AC,

So the free west has a conspiracy which controls the media and gives the illusion of freedom? Russia has a state controlled media which tells the truth and all of the hampering is because of the United States? From my perspective it would be like blaming your personal circumstances on a conspiracy against your interests. Incidentally, it would be far easier to conduct a conspiracy against an individual than against a nation. Further, it makes far more sense to me to view Russia's economic failures as a result of its corrupt authoritarian governance and its belligerence toward its neighbours.

Militarily Russia has a huge army, but it has struggled to make ground against Ukraine, which is all the more a failure if Ukraine has been destroyed by Russia as you claim. I agree that Russia has a dangerous army: Its recent missile attack was successful because it used a salvo of inaccurate missiles to deplete the air defences, followed by another salve of accurate missiles.

Unless Russia plumps up its troop numbers very soon I think it will be in trouble. Ukraine is in no hurry to start the counteroffensive, especially as the commanders realise that they are already inflicting unsustainable losses on the Russian war machine. Because it needs to have troops in reserve to mobilise against the counteroffensive, the Russian army cannot send as many suicide squads to occupy the attention of the Ukrainians. Instead, Ukraine has been able to focus on the occupied territory and have been destroying a lot more hardware. This is making the Russian position worse. I think that Ukraine might be happy to pick off Russian military targets for a month or two yet as it will leave them a much weaker army to fight.

Do you think the Ukrainians might try and knock out Putin's bridge before his victory parade in Red Square?

Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the mercenary army used to replace the real army that was all but destroyed in the early part of the war, has declared that he wants to pull his troops out of Bakhmut, due to heavy losses and lack of ammo. (BTW this mercenary army is called after ultra anti-semite and Nazi favourite, Richard Wagner - but tell me again how the Ukrainians are the real Nazis!!)

It'll be fun to see how the Russian apologists here perform their mental gymnastics to explain how Prigozhin's threats and admissions are really propaganda from the great satan.

The incompetent morons shot down their own Bayraktar drone over Kiev and Ukrainians cheered.
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1654202975252893697

You can find heaps of evidence of Ukraine's NAZI leanings if you want to yourself Mhaze.
Why should I bother when you'd rather keep your eyes closed anyway?

"So the free west has a conspiracy which controls the media and gives the illusion of freedom? Russia has a state controlled media which tells the truth and all of the hampering is because of the United States?"

- If you don't see it or get it not much I can do about it.
Everything's controlled in it's own way, that's how it's built.
If you don't support the government narrative you don't press passes, access, or to to ask questions.
- If you ask the wrong questions, your press pass gets revoked.
Everyone must tow the line.

Baldrick,

I also see that the Ukrainians' new Patriot system shot down the hypersonic Khinsal missile. Also, Russia shot down its own aircraft more than once.

As for Western propaganda, I don't see the West punishing journalists for publishing pretty much whatever they want. However, you get 10 years in Russia for saying this is a war.

Russia's army has culminated and is desperately trying to prepare for the Ukraine offensive.

Russia is losing this war.

Hi AC

"The incompetent morons shot down their own Bayraktar drone over Kiev and Ukrainians cheered."

My understanding is that the drone became unresponsive to manual control and had to be shot down after circling over Kiev for a time. You could be excused for thinking it was a Russian military drone as it was a threat to civilians.

"Everyone must tow the line."

In an authoritarian kleptocracy like Russia you have to be careful of what you say lest you end up in jail. Fortunately much of Russia's youth is too smart to be brainwashed by authoritarian propaganda. I guess you must believe in the "Freedom is slavery" dictum.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMGQpSZ27yM

Russia is losing about 1000 troops per day and two btgs of mechanised equipment per week. The Ukrainians have been hitting a lot more Russian artillery and counter-battery radar of late, as well as turning Prilepin's Mazda 2 into a Mazda 0.5.

So Armchair, it seems you've decided to ignore the message from Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Good idea! the only way to sustain a failing narrative is to ignore everything that explains why its a failing narrative.

"In an authoritarian kleptocracy like Russia you have to be careful of what you say lest you end up in jail. Fortunately much of Russia's youth is too smart to be brainwashed by authoritarian propaganda. I guess you must believe in the 'Freedom is slavery' dictum."
- No they're not too smart, they're too dumb.
Too dumb to understand that the West uses their ignorance in relation to causing civil unrest in foreign countries to overthrow leaders and that they are merely pawns selling out their nations sovereignty (for western interests), and that their leaders must act the way they do to prevent said civil unrest that those same young dumb citizens will cause.

"Russia is losing about 1000 troops per day and two btgs of mechanised equipment per week."
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1654956098586316800
- If you say so, I'm thinking those under this are probably faring worse than those not under it.

Maybe you should watch some of this and get a different perspective.
http://www.youtube.com/live/qwRF7FYWIyI?feature=share

Hey mhaze,
"So Armchair, it seems you've decided to ignore the message from Yevgeny Prigozhin."
- Which one, this one?
Wagner boss slams Russian officials from a field of corpses
http://youtu.be/j-bALDPCp4w
- I'm not sure it was his last video.
http://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1654796024269946882
- Few different things I've heard here and there, (Wagner fighters tired, Prigozhin has PTSD, Arguments over distribution of weapons and ammo, They're quietly trying to relocate Wagner to other parts of the battlefield...)
- I can't get a full handle on what's really going on tbh, been kinda busy today, but Prigozhin's got more weapons and ammunition now so the situation may already be resolved, if it ever even was a situation.

https://ria-ru.translate.goog/20230507/vagner-1870304016.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

- And Kadyrov's Akhmat fighters are going to go in and provide support to Wagner to try and finish Bakhmut off, not really sure what's going to happen with Wagner there on the 10th.

Ukrainian counteroffensive could happen anytime, Russia is evacuating about 70k people from Zaporizhzhia, and something seems to be planned with the NPP, the west seem to have an obsession with it.

AC,

I see that Russians are fleeing Crimea like rats from a sinking ship. Apparently, even the Russians believe that Russia is losing the war.

The Russians are running out of ammunition and hardware while Ukraine has received 240 tanks, 1500 armoured vehicles 2 million howitzer shells new artillery new aircraft and new missile systems.

Russia might even lose Crimea by the end of the year.

"I see that Russians are fleeing Crimea like rats from a sinking ship. Apparently, even the Russians believe that Russia is losing the war."

- That's western propaganda for you.
I heard Reznikov and the Washington Post are playing down the Ukrainian counteroffensive now, they don't want people disillusioned when it fails to meet expectations.

"The Russians are running out of ammunition and hardware while Ukraine has received 240 tanks, 1500 armoured vehicles 2 million howitzer shells new artillery new aircraft and new missile systems."

I saw 100 T90's lined up in a video a few days ago, and I know Russia has special crews with Kornets and air support to blow all the western stuff up just waiting.

"Russia might even lose Crimea by the end of the year."
- American propaganda at it's best, you fell for it.
Should we revisit the issue in a year or so?
- Maybe you'll still be clinging on if the Ukrainians aren't all wiped out by then.

WaPo, spring offensive all hype.
http://youtu.be/uAHdL1KNVVU
- It's 50,000 against 400,000 - good luck dreamer.
They'll be lucky if they even make it to Crimea, but sensible people in Crimea would leaving temporarily.
They're evacuating 70K people in Zaporizhzhia right now, so yes that would send a message.

Gotta create doubt in the minds of Russians if you want a regime change.
And gotta keep the support of western citizens if you want the money and weapons to keep flowing.

To think the average person is probably even more clueless and susceptible to bs than you...

Hi AC,

"- It's 50,000 against 400,000 - good luck dreamer."

If those are the numbers then why did the Russian offensives fail? I agree that Russia has more troops, more artillery, and a huge air force, but their lack of progress says a lot for the Ukrainian military, far from the morons, old men and young boys of your descriptions. I listened to a piece by a French journalist who had spent a long time on the front and he had great respect for the Ukrainians. If they thought the war a lost cause they weren't saying anything. He thinks that the Ukrainians will take their time and make the most of opportunity.

What the Ukrainians do by May 9th might be a measure of their capability.

AC is the same guy that claimed that the Ukrainians were about to be encircled in Izyum and stood no chance of taking Kherson.

He also claimed that Bahkmut was operational encircled months ago and that 10s of 1000s of Ukrainian troops were about to be captured.

In the last 2 days, there have been successful drone attacks on fuel tanks in Crimea, an airfield in Bryansk 2 Russian trains blown up, a massive Russian ammo dump destroyed and many hits on the rail network in Crimea.

AC's claim of seeing 100 T90s is a joke as they are being destroyed just as easily as the T72s and they only make 20 a month.

In the last 2 days, there have been successful drone attacks on fuel tanks in Crimea, an airfield in Bryansk 2 Russian trains blown up, a massive Russian ammo dump destroyed and many hits on the rail network in Crimea.

- Pathetic little pinprick attacks for propaganda purposes that don't impact the war in any way, except to keep morons like you screaming 'Slava Ukraini' while the whole country is destroyed.

AC's claim of seeing 100 T90s is a joke as they are being destroyed just as easily as the T72s and they only make 20 a month.

Do you want me to go and find the footage, I can, but it would be a waste of time since after you've seen it you'll be running around doing the charter boat routine and pretending the footage doesn't exist like usual.

Baldrick,

The pinpricks as you call them are the destruction of the capability of Russia to supply fuel to its ships, tanks, trains and vehicles.

You make wild and improbable claims. I don't believe you nor anyone else; you clearly cannot provide any evidence. Russia is losing tanks way faster than it can replace them, and Ukraine has already destroyed 60 T90s and they burn just as quickly as the T72s

As I said before Ukraine has fully mobilised and has an army strength of about 500 000.

Hi AC,

The parade was a fizzer. No parade of the immortals either. Meanwhile these poor fellows didn't fare so well against the Ukrainians with their lack of training:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rcii2ICMW_8

I think the Russian army is smart using the old tanks. They are mobile artillery and will be useful defending if they are dug in. Meanwhile the Ukrainians continue to pick off Russian equipment and test strategies. I think that they are also trying to improve their drone capability to compensate for their lack of air support. They weren't able to do anything spectacular for victory day. Maybe they didn't want to divert attention from the parade?

F,

It looks like they only have one tank left. I watched the parade to the music of Benny Hill. What a joke. Most of their tanks are now scrap iron.

Hi SM,

Yes, it would be hilarious but for the unprovoked atrocities which rival that of the Nazis. The abomination would end if Putin ordered the Russian army out of Ukraine, and with the Russian forces as depleted as they are now Russia would be at zero risk of an invasion. That is the part of AC's narrative that makes no sense to me: Why would a nation fearful of rape and pillage by the hostile west destroy its army in its own act of rape and pillage? This suggests to me that Putin has no fear of Russia being invaded but very likely thinks that failure in Ukraine will be the end of him.

Hi AC,

Hopefully the Russian troops will run away when the Ukrainians attack, like they did south of Bakhmut, or at least surrender like this soldier did (note all his dead comrades).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-XHtOWxU4g

Well here's some Chechens holding the line and Ukrainians being blown up and eaten by dogs, if you like that kind of thing.
http://twitter.com/MapsUkraine/status/1656329976847663105

"I think the Russian army is smart using the old tanks. They are mobile artillery and will be useful defending if they are dug in. Meanwhile the Ukrainians continue to pick off Russian equipment and test strategies."

Aha, someone finally clued on to what the T55 and T62 tanks are actually for.
- They aren't running out of tanks, they just have different uses for them.
Meanwhile Ukraine needs a 2 million man army to take back the territory it's lost.
- And it's using 3 million dollar patriot interceptors to destroy 10K drones.

"I think that they are also trying to improve their drone capability to compensate for their lack of air support."
- It won't change anything.
"They weren't able to do anything spectacular for victory day. Maybe they didn't want to divert attention from the parade?"
- Russia's going to label Ukraine a state sponsor of terror for targeting non-combatants, and labeling Washington as a direct party to such incidents. Hitting Moscow with a drone, just hardened Russian resolve and plays into Putin's narrative.

"It looks like they only have one tank left. I watched the parade to the music of Benny Hill. What a joke. Most of their tanks are now scrap iron."

You really are an idiot.
So desperate for something to cling onto you advertise your stupidity.

It's a symbol of the 27 million Russians who died fighting the NAZI's in WWII, similar to the fight that is going on now, sponsored by the West.
(US lost 440K in WWII)
I bet none of you listened to Putin's speech on Victory Day right?
- So you wouldn't understand anything in any context.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71104

Meanwhile Ursula Van Der Leyen is in Kiev for a rebranded 'Europe Day'

EU DIVISIONS ARE GROWING - NATO IS DOOMED
http://www.youtube.com/live/VN4ALG1JQOY?feature=share

"Russia could be a great nation like them, but it chooses to be an impoverished terrorist state run by gangsters."
- It chooses not to kneel like all the other vassal states have and is the most sanctioned nation on the planet.

Sure much to be desired but this war has forced Russia to nation build and be more self-reliant.

"How were Germany, Japan and Italy destroyed by the West in ww2?"
- Lol, they weren't.
They were destroyed by the west in 2022 after playing lapdog to US neoconsevatives war plans against Russia after the US overthrew the democratically elected government of Ukraine in 2014.
Watch the video in my previous comment.

You really stepped in a turd with that one.
- I found it really quite amusing.

The whole world is so seriously messed up it's not funny.
As for the 'Russia is running out of weapons' narrative.
This is nothing more than projection by the West.

It's as if they say around in a boardroom and said to each other
"We only have limited amount of weapons we can provide Ukraine. What does the propaganda department have to say about how we spin this"
Propaganda department - "We project our problems on our enemy, We say that Russia is running out of weapons"
- And people like you SM just eat that shite your spoonfed right up.
And then you come back saying "More please", because it reinforced the BS you already slurped down without batting an eyelid.
And you can't admit to yourself that you got had.

Fester talking about how great the West is with free speech (permitted speech) and all that...

EU country arrests 26 people for celebrating Victory Day
- Marking anything other than “Europe Day” in Latvia is now a crime against democracy
http://www.rt.com/news/576028-latvia-victory-day-arrests/

Don't you understand the people who you thought were the 'beacon of democracy' and a 'shining example' to all the backwoods shiteholes of the world, well they're just as effing bad as the ones they complain about, maybe even worse.

"More than two dozen residents of Latvia were arrested on Tuesday for violating a law against celebrating the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany, known as Victory Day. The EU and NATO member's police even seized a 'Russia' jacket from a man in a wheelchair, and arrested another for wearing Soviet medals in public."

Target a man in a wheelchair for wearing the wrong jacket.
The west are quickly becoming the same kind of fascists as the NAZI's were.
But you all refuse to see it, too busy telling yourselves that "We're the goodguys";
- Well here's a newsflash, we're not.

This whole damn war would've been avoided if it wasn't for the US neoconservative warmongers and their belief in US exceptionalism and staging a coup detat in Ukraine in 2014 against the elected government in order to back Russia into a corner and create a war.

You lot have 'democracy' blinkers on so badly that you just can't see things for what they really are.

Russia will win the war and Ukraine will be destroyed either way.
And the west could not have achieved such an outcome without the help of those like yourselves buying into whatever daily horse shite the biased and complicit corporate media feeds you.

Sorry Fester, I think one of my comments there was a response to one of your comments on page 1 of the thread.
I got mixed up and didn't respond to your last comment sorry.

"That is the part of AC's narrative that makes no sense to me: Why would a nation fearful of rape and pillage by the hostile west destroy its army in its own act of rape and pillage?"

They aren't destroying their army.
Russian losses arent that bad, but Ukrainian military has already been largely destroyed.

"This suggests to me that Putin has no fear of Russia being invaded but very likely thinks that failure in Ukraine will be the end of him."

Who's going to invade Russia, the military stockpiles of Europe and NATO have been largely exhausted. And if push comes to shove China as well as other countries have Russias back. This was all about Russia's security againt a hostile west the wished to encircle them by NATO countries and take their Naval base in Crimea and exert western control over the Black Sea, as well as deposing Putin and installing a leader favourable to their own interests.

"Hopefully the Russian troops will run away when the Ukrainians attack, like they did south of Bakhmut, or at least surrender like this soldier did (note all his dead comrades)."

Ukrainians tried that, and got shot by other Ukrainians.

You lot fail to see the dark side of democracy.

Thanks AC,

I laugh at how differently you and I view things, yet I don't think I'd be presumptuous in believing that we both have a strong sense of justice and desire a better world for all.

Whatever happens in Ukraine, if the world ends up the better for it that will be a good thing. Who is right and wrong is just peanut gallery banter. From my perspective the Ukrainian military is reasoning that if they keep going as they are and keep probing the Russian defences and destroying equipment, especially artillery and high tech gear, then they will find their task much easier.

Anyway, we will see. A horrible conflict, but if it destroys most of Russia's war machine I hope it might inspire an era of more enlightened politics. Maybe the end of rule by angry grandpas?

"I laugh at how differently you and I view things, yet I don't think I'd be presumptuous in believing that we both have a strong sense of justice and desire a better world for all."
- Yeah, it's funny how we can support opposing sides, still be one the same side, at the same time.

"Whatever happens in Ukraine, if the world ends up the better for it that will be a good thing."

I saw this video earlier today, let me grab it and share with you.
http://www.youtube.com/live/ewXW3_KEQXs?feature=share&t=1460
- It's already cued up to the part I want you to see.

Now Lindsay Graham has said EXACTLY the same thing, WORD FOR WORD about 'Fighting to the last Ukrainian'
- And here he is talking about fighting to the last Taiwanese.

That should give you something to think about.
You might be forgiven for thinking if that it Russia puts its tail between its legs and toddles off back home that all this craziness will end.
- But it won't, they (neoconservatives) will move on to China and Taiwan and find some way to do the same thing all over again.

You know if things were to turn out that way, then maybe you and shadowminister might finally see my point, that it wasn't Russia that caused this current war after all.

Russia didn't provoke this war, the West did and they don't plan on stopping in Ukraine.
- Just a bit of food for thought, thanks for your comments Fester.

AC,

You make these wild assertions without a jot of proof,

The Ukrainian army now stands at about 500 000 and is nowhere near destroyed and has fought the Russian army to a standstill inflicting massive losses in men and materiel.

The US and EU have tripled their arms production and are now providing Ukraine with long-range missiles as well as a steady stream of tanks, aircraft etc and are a long way from running out of equipment and ammo.

The next stage will include F16s that will hammer the Russian planes.

Also, Russia is running out of anti-aircraft systems as Ukraine's HARM missiles take them out and their $10 000 drone swarms bleed Crimea's AA systems.

Hi AC,

Yes, war seems quite pointless when both sides fight for the same things.

Hi SM,

Did you see all the Kornet missiles captured in the successful flank attacks around Bakhmut? That sort of armament is one reason why the Ukrainians aren't in a big hurry to start a counteroffensive. I think that they are using Bakhmut as a testing ground for conducting assaults against the Russian forces, and the cheap drones seem to be providing good support there as well. I think that the Ukrainians would be well chuffed if they could encircle Bakhmut.

Have you seen the latest, the Russians are running away at the sight of the Ukrainians and have lost nearly 18 km2 in two days.

Wagner is down to 10% strength and the untrained Russian conscripts are not up for a fight.

They are well coordinated attacks by the Ukrainians. In one attack the Russians sent in reinforcements but were quickly hit by a Himars strike. A retired Russian officer commented on Russian TV that he thought the Ukrainian forces were accumulating the precision weapons necessary for the counteroffensive. I agree with him, but I also think that the Ukrainians are trialing assault techniques. This also puts pressure on the Russian army as they have diverted resources for an anticipated southern counteroffensive. Meanwhile Ukraine is continuing the war of attrition in which it has the advantages of precision and a better view of the enemy.

I think that the Russian army will eventually succumb to a critical shortage of equipment, but like their missile stocks this may take much longer than expected, so it is crucial for the Ukrainians not to waste resources.

Fester,

Only the delusional could look at the war in Ukraine and think that the Russians can win this.

The Russian recruitment campaign has got virtually no volunteers and is purely relying on conscripts. Russians are not stupid enough not to notice the mounting losses for a war that very few care about.

To quote Eisenhower “You will not find it difficult to prove that battles, campaigns, and even wars have been won or lost primarily because of logistics, and Russian logistics have been spectacularly bad. While the Russians started this war with tons of money, weapons and ammunition most of this is starting to run out, while for the Ukrainians the vast industries of the West are ramping up supplies, weapons and technology.

The Russian offensive has failed miserably with almost zero territorial gain with more losses than in the Afghan, Chechen and other wars since December 2022.

The question is when the Russian military collapses not if.

Hi SM,

An abbreviation is "Don't stretch yourself." as Montgomery found out in Operation Market Garden. Later Operation Varsity was a resounding success, partly because of lessons learned in OMG, but mainly because the German army was degraded and demoralised in the six months between operations.

The counterattacks of Ukraine are very well thought out and will likely be repeated along the front, especially if they are able to encircle Bakhmut. The impact on Russian morale and propaganda will be significant. Meanwhile the Russians are perhaps losing 10,000 troops and two BTGs of equipment per week. Further, now that Russia does not have enough troops for meat wave offensives the Ukrainians are actively targeting artillery and special equipment.

Why would Ukraine want to conduct a costly counteroffensive when the Russian army is being degraded so quickly and economically? It will only get easier for them and they will learn from the counterattacks.