Shadow Minister: << From what you have described, you have been suckling at the socialist teat for most of your life, and I guess will be for some time. >>

More snide and inaccurate supposition from the arse of SM.

So you're saying that because there's no votes in the disabled, they should just cop it sweet?

Rstuart and CJ,

Obviously English language was not one of your strong points.

RS

I said the boat arrivals (see topic) increased by about 20x not asylum seekers (which the article you linked refers), and considering that in the last 3 months there have been 5-10x the number that arrived in 2007, this is not too far off. (Note: I am not trying to average it over 2 years to dilute the spike as other posters have.)

Other sources of asylum seekers have not changed as radically due the screening before departure.

CJ

I never said the disabled should cop it, I said they would, (fact rather than opinion) which was kind of the whole point.

Your self righteous attitude is better deployed shuffling bed pans than trying to decide policy. I’m sure the neurologically challenged have a higher smugness withstand threshold than the rest of us.

Shadow Minister: "I said the boat arrivals (see topic) increased by about 20x not asylum seekers"

Sorry Shadow, I found the figure hard to believe and you didn't provide links. In the end I spent an hour or two digging, and found a Senate enquiry which I presume has authoritative figures. In 2008 there were 37 new arrivals http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/MIG/detention/subs/sub129d.pdf to Christmas Island. I assume they are new boat arrivals. It seems we are on track for 2000 this year http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10608496 which a 60x change.

Your "its all Labours" fault thesis is still as hard to accept as ever. In fact harder once I leant from the Senate enquire there were 109 people at Christmas Island on the 29th of May http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/MIG/detention/subs/sub129w.pdf

About 100 arrived over all of the the first 6 months, then suddenly we are averaging 300 a month from June. What the hell are you suggesting Labour did? Take out full page newspaper ads in every refugee camp in Asia in June maybe? Somehow the climax of the Sri Lankan war on the 18 May followed by the Tamils being rounded up into camps at gun point sounds like a far more likely cause. Particularly so given Labours treatment of refugees hadn't changed in 2 years or so.

Rstuart,

In April / May of this year as Labor was rolling out the changes to the relevant policies, it appeared in the news that this was being highly publicised in Indonesia and Malaysia by the smuggling syndicates.

Labor said that this was being counteracted by an advertising campaign to show that entrance into Aus was no easier by boat, and that this would not be an issue.

They were horribly wrong. In this case perception is king, which is why the 78 on the Custom's ship is such a high focus. If the gov caves in, this will change from a once off incident to an ongoing problem.

I see in the news that labor is looking at re introducing the tempory protection visas.

At $15000 per person, the refugees are gambling that they will get in. If the success rate is close to 100% as it is looking now, then it is a good investment.

If they are detained or stopped and lose their money, they are less likely to try.

Shadow Minister: "I see in the news that labor is looking at re introducing the tempory protection visas."

Actually, that was the Libs. Probably a bad political move. Right now the government is coping huge amounts of flak. This sort of move will only draw attention away from that.

There is no need for Labour to re-introduce TPV's, as they are still available. If they want to keep using them, all they have to do is quietly let their current bill drop to the floor.

Shadow Minister: "If they are detained or stopped and lose their money, they are less likely to try."

If they were detained, they didn't loose their money - they got in. If they were determined they could not be stopped either. All they have to do is sink the boat.

As you say it is about perception. But even then I have trouble accepting it. As the start of this spike the new arrivals said weren't aware of the changed conditions in Australia. Given the state of the news media over there I find this easy to believe.

The bottom line Shadow is just about everyone that got to Australia's shores in Howard's time got in. Yes, they had to wait it out for years in detention camps, but even then compared to detention camps elsewhere ours are hotels. 3 star hotels, actually. Most of them have settled in now, and are no doubt are sending home money and new about how good it is in Australia on a regular basis. This "good news" has had 1/2 a decade to permeate through Asia.

So yes, it is all about perception. And if perception agrees with reality, it will be: have a good case, stick to your guns, be patient and you will get in because Australia does honour its UNHCR obligations.

Rstuart,

It was the libs, I heard it on the radio on the way to work and got it wrong.

The 260 Tamils off Indonesia have lost their money and their freedom. The Indonesian solution is far worse for them than the pacific solution, where they only had to wait a couple of years.

As most of the boat people (in general) are men who later bring their families in, the wait of a couple of years is a major deterrent, for obvious reasons.

The "solution" to the oceanic viking problem of letting them in quickly is major cave in, and is only one step from dropping them off in Darwin.