The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
The Forum - On Line Opinion's article discussion area



Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

Main Articles General

Sign In      Register

The Forum > Article Comments > Mathematical modelling illusions > Comments

Mathematical modelling illusions : Comments

By Jay Lehr and Tom Harris, published 11/1/2019

Although one of the most active areas for mathematical modeling is the economy and the stock market, no one has ever succeeded in getting it right.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. 3
  5. 4
  6. Page 5
  7. All
flora, fauna and natives survive when we, with all our technology, are, we are confidently informed, going to fail?
Aidan,
Flora, Fauna & natives have the advantage that they're not plagued with academic experts.
Posted by individual, Thursday, 17 January 2019 7:17:50 AM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
Aidan,

" 'Twas meteorologists, climatologists and astronomers"

For example?

"I for one don't want the planet to warm."

Yes but you do want the alarmists to be shown to be right and the sceptics wrong.

"Your example is paywalled. Have you read the full article? If so:"

1. Yes I've read it.

2. Yes the paper has the number as 0.2K.

3. I wasn't offering the paper as a proof of anything other than that there a enormous numbers of papers out there that are not Koch funded by do reject the so-called consensus, contra your claims.

"..the water vapour feedback which increases the effect by an order of magnitude?"

Order of magnitude?? Even the IPCC thinks the water feedback increases the CO2 effect by 2 to 3 times. And they acknowledge, in their more honest moments that they really aren't sure about that or even that the feedback is positive.

"Firstly, where did you get that "25% of the time" figure?"

There are, again, many temperature reconstructions that show this. Somewhere on these pages I once listed 10 or so such reconstructions.
The best, or my favourite, is Marcott et al 2013.

http://content.csbs.utah.edu/~mli/Economics%207004/Marcott_Global%20Temperature%20Reconstructed.pdf

Now since I've been down this road many times on this and other groups, I'll try to forestall some of your arguments trying to reconcile this paper with alarmism.

1 Marcott is very much in the alarmist camp.
2. The uptick at the end of his graphs and paper are not data but items added after the data collection. Subsequent to the paper's release Marcott admitted as much and agreed that it should not be used to draw any conclusion about the data.
3. In a Q&A after the paper's release, Marcott agreed that the data resolution was at best 120 years and around 300 years for most of the period in question. He agreed therefore that there is no way to know or even suppose that the current speed of warming is unusual.
Posted by mhaze, Thursday, 17 January 2019 12:14:59 PM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
What is it with people that makes them put so much effort into the past & future but none in the present ?
Whatever you neglect today will be history tomorrow. Where's the benefit for the day after ?
Posted by individual, Friday, 18 January 2019 7:40:49 AM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
Next door neighbor told me just now that he'd seen an old Eskiomo chap interviewed by some GW proponent. He pointed out to the GW Bandwagon desciple that he remembered when he was a little kid, his mob used to have a garden in the early 1910's-20's in a spot that is now covered by ice. The GW desiple apparently tried every trick to put a different slant on the old chappie's comments but failed. What surprised my neighbor that the footage was even shown on TV.
Posted by individual, Monday, 21 January 2019 8:57:27 AM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. 3
  5. 4
  6. Page 5
  7. All

About Us :: Search :: Discuss :: Feedback :: Legals :: Privacy