I don't want to disturb the Three Pillar explanation which I'm confident is part of a PowerPoint Presentation, however:

1. First Pillar " the concept of operations and organizational structure" seems to inextricably overlap Second Pillar "ethnic cultural influence of interrelated group loyalty and honor". If you are a lad (say in Melbourne) you may well be influenced by IS's (First Pillar) internet campaign of encouragement and how-to (in a technical sense) be an effective home-grown terrorist. All this happens in a Second Pillar "ethnic cultural group loyalty sense" Muslim? Arab background? 18-30 years old? male? know some charismatic local activist?

2. First Pillar seems more like a monolithic, military type, authoritarian structure which seems at odds with Second Pillars typically Arab tribal, decentralised, amorphus loyalty style.

3. Paragraph 6 - "Although the Islamic State seems to limit its terrorist operations to Baghdad and other Iraqi cities, it has reportedly utilized its network of individuals to conducted attacks in Lebanon and Turkey." This seems quite Wrong. IS began in Syria. As well as some Iraqi cities IS has crept along major rivers (with much population) and along major roads where there are towns. This is particularly true of IS's recent gains in Iraq's very large Anbar Province.

4. The Three Pillar PowerPoint model also doesn't touch the overtly Sunni nature of IS. In many cases IS might be seen as a defensive Sunni militia within a moderate Sunni population in many Iraqi towns and cities. Within those towns and cities there are frequently Iraqi Government-Shiite army units and also Iranian-Iraqi led Shiite militia units who are notoriously giving non-Shiites a hard time.

5. Iraqi Oil explains why the West is spending $Billions stabilising Iraq but not more needy, but less oil blessed, African countries.

So in Iraq things are much more complex politically, militarily, economically and in terms of equity than the Three Pillars.

Plantagenet, excellent response to the 'powerpoint presentation'. That made me laugh.

Most Westerners, and certainly here in Australia, have no idea about the deep animosity between the 2 main streams in Islam: Shia and Sunni. And the virulence of some of the strains within Sunni Islam. Also directed towards other Sunni Muslims.

Thanks yvonne

People certainly read things more if the wording is amusing - even if the situation itself is pretty tragic.

Cheers

Pete

It is certainly a work of some significant genius that a situation as complex as the present-day politics of Islam and the Middle East can be covered in a single page.

And to think, all those armies of analysts in the various governments and agencies around the world, working their little butts off trying to fathom it out, and here it all is - in three short paragraphs.

Australia, the thinking country.

I don't know how it would be possible to not know by now that there is a division in Islam between Shia and Sunnis; and that they basically hate each other, unless of course one doesn't own a TV or a computer.

You left out the wireless!!

If all Muslims are either Sunni or Shia - which, of course, is a simplification - then Salafists belong to the Sunnis, which was implicit in the interesting article. Interesting exactly because of its attempt at an analytic overview of the complex situation that would fit onto a one-page long PowerPoint presenentation which for many is more helpful than a book-lengh treatise that most of us would not have time or interest to read, even though it MIGHT better describe the workings of IS.

I think we'd have a better chance of first digging a hole in beach-side sand, then emptying the entire ocean into it, than fathom the workings of the mad minds that simply want to kill anyone who just doesn't conform to their stone age belief system.
Nowhere in any of this belief system is as much as a single provable fact; least of all, an all knowing all seeing all powerful God speaking to all of them through just one or two of them; or madness personified!
And were there no Christians, Jews, atheists, homosexuals or Gypsies to blame or kill; this group would surely turn on each other, given the real motive behind all of it, is madmen's whim, caprice and or, blood lust!
Just look at the examples of their activities coming to light; crucifixions, ritual beheading, people stoned or beaten to death, heads on poles and women and children sold into slavery as literal sex slaves; if only to recognize this inherent madness for what it is!
And only organised inasmuch as the inmates would organize the asylum, or extremely secure prison!
If people want this Muslim murderous monstrosity, maybe would should stand back and just let them duke it out.
And when reduced to a few toothless blind old men, and a few weeping widows, take pity and just nuke what is left out of existence!
They would do no less for all of us in the non Islam world, if only they could!
Rhrosty.

Dear Plantagenet,

You raise some interesting points which I would like to make comment on.

Regarding Point 1, that the first and second pillars overlap. The article states that the three pillars are interconnected but separate. Yes there is much that is interconnected and overlapping, but there is also much that is not. For example, three groups that have allied themselves to the Islamic State are the Kurdish Ansar al Islam, the Indonesian Jemaah Islmiyah, and the Chechen Army of the Emigrants and Helpers. None of these groups are culturally Arab, hence 3 separate pillars.

Point 2. The first pillar, although complex and large is not a monolith. It is because it is diverse and in practice incredibly complex, that makes it so difficult to defeat. If it were monolithic it would have a single centre of gravity that conventional military forces could easily defeat.

Point 3. Regarding the terrorist attacks reportedly conducted by ISIL supporters in Lebanon and Turkey. Attacks in Lebanon include bombings in Beirut on and around 25 June 2014, and terrorist recruitment, caching and border attacks in Turkey. With regard to IS beginning in Syria, I think you will find that IS personnel, including their commander, came out of Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL). ISIL grew out of the Islamic State in Iraq, which in turn came from the commonly named Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). AQI was started by al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian with the assistance of Ansar al Islam and Al Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden.

Point 4.
You are quite correct when you identify that the three pillar model doesn’t specifically identify the religious differences between Sunni and Shiite Islam. Salafit views follow the earliest texts of Islam. Therefore, they are inherently Sunni in nature. Given the imposed length of articles allowed for publication, detailed explanations are not possible.

Point 5. I am not sure what Iraqi oil has to do with the stated opinion piece.

PS. I am very sure this piece has not come from, or been made into, a Power Point presentation

Hi Anshin

I see that above is your very first OLO comment. I therefore consider myself fortunate that you have taken time out of your consultant interests to chat.

I try to put IS and the fate of Sunnis in a social and economic context rather than just targets of a counter-insurgency machine. Targets to be eliminated by the odd alliance of the US-UK-Australia and Iran presiding over a reluctant piece of Iraqi real estate.

Cheers

Pete

Radical Islam has been used by our elite criminals to remove our rights and divide our communities. ISIl was created by the West to fight Assad in Syria. Al Qaeda is another Western creation.

This is all about their fascist New World Order.

Middle East unrest is linked to lack of employment and income, a situation that is driving chronic poverty and hardship.

Hardship is known to drive people into groups and lawless gangs.
ME youth are bored and restless, irritated.
There is jealousy of American wealth and good times.

Economists should be talking about new productivity and new employment instead of wasting time on CO2 tax pricing trading schemes causing inflation that is destroying business and employment and economies.

The bottom of the economy is expanding instead of shrinking.
Times are getting tougher instead of better.

If every able person was employed and had equivelent of US.$100 a day take home pay and affordable food and reasonable comfort, there would be no present unrest and war.

I think the enemy is actually world economic downturn.

Dear Anshin

I meant to say thanks for your reply and your excellent article. Your article raises many questions about IS's structure and workings - a much needed preliminary to ultimately beating IS.

On the flow of the counter-insurgency:

- it seems that the US is following a hesitant buildup strategy of US forces

- Obama may be aware that after US forces largely left Iraq at the end of 2011 the return around 32 months later may seem to Iraqis as a reoccupation of their country by Western "infidels".

3. perhaps the US is consciously balancing against Iranian forces and Iranian influence in Iraq?

4. with the US in the last 2 weeks announcing the doubling of US forces of what are really combat troops (defined by carrying weapons and exposure to danger) Abbott may well announce in the next few weeks a doubling of Australian Special Forces to 400.

5. I also make a prediction that by November 2015 Australia will also have sent or announced the deployment of a regular Royal Australian Regiment battalion (of around 600 troops) to hold part of an Iraqi province.

Regards

Pete

Very interesting observations about Islamic State. If those details are valid, it is clear that IS is a VERY narrow operation.

IS seems only capable of doing what it is now doing (ie conducting military manoeuvres). It has narrow tribal roots. Its ideology is not the basis for actually achieving anything if it were to succeed with its military activities and establish an 'Islamic State' (for reasons suggested in
http://cpds.apana.org.au/Teams/Articles/discouraging_extremism.htm)

If IS's massive limitations were made known in the Muslim world I would be surprised if it would last 6 months. There are Muslim leaders who are seeking a much more more solid foundation for Islam to actually have a future.

Dear Pete,
Thank you for your feedback and comments. As mentioned, the purpose of the article was to primarily illustrate the complicated nature of the foe. If Australia, or the rest of the world for that matter, is to continue in its efforts to achieve militarily only defeat, then we will be in for a long and likely bloody war. I also wanted to show that this coming war is more than what most politicians, think tank researchers, and many professors believe, which is that the coming war is solely about defeating a small section of believers of a particular religion.

With regard to your comments about the growing counter insurgency, you make some interesting and relevant observations. Each one of which is worthy of a long and detailed analysis, unfortunately outside the scope of this post

Dear CPDS,

In physical terms, IS is a rather narrow organisation, and there are certainly weaknesses within IS when seen within the 3 Pillar model. Such weaknesses could be exploited by coordinated Western, Middle Eastern and Muslim actors. Unfortunately, it is the connections and networked links across the globe that allow IS to have influence. Given the continued growth of globalisation, and especially the ease of travel and communications, these links will likely only increase in diversity and strength.

It would also appear that as yet IS has not acquired an ideologue similar to Zawahiri, in his former role in al Qaeda. When IS does acquire one, and an ideological message to go with it, IS will be a much more difficult beast to control, let alone defeat

Interesting thread, I have wondered about the economic stability of Islam without oil.
Non oil Islamic states such as Pakistan are economic basket cases.
In the long term as oil production in the middle east declines it can be expected that
their ability to war war will also decline. Examine Egypt as an example.
If countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq can prevent ISIS getting its stolen oil to
market together with western countries boycotting countries that are buying it then
ISIS will quickly run out of steam and will have trouble buying food for their thousands
of followers.
Reverting to the age old military technique of seizing food from the farmers will very
quickly stir up the tribal sheiks. I am sure military planners must already be looking at
cutting ISIS's money tree.

As Napoleon said, an army marches on its stomach.

Meant to ask, has there ever been a study of the economic ability of a sharia law
governed moslem country ?
A country with a large number of genetically damaged people operating under the
restrictions of sharia and not having the outside support of oil sales and not a lot of
other resources would have a very hard time I would think.

Think of Saudi Arabia when the oil becomes too expensive to burn.

Meanwhile in Sweden:

"Know your friend: how to rehabilitate genocidal maniacs"

http://swedishsurveyor.com/2014/11/14/mona-christ-sahlin-and-mehmet-the-victim-kaplan-hold-hands-and-sing-kumbaya/