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The Forum > General Discussion > World Population

World Population

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Individual - Exactly - That was what Malthus (controversial even then) was trying to say in his 1798 book An Essay on the Principle of Population - If cultures don't control their populations then disasters will occur.

Belly - Yes the choices at the world level are - control population or conflict (possibly war). Neither of these choices are ideal but these are our cards - the world body needs to manage the situation - and hasn't till now. Australian culture has a fairly good record on population control.

Loudmouth said "People go fishing, they dangle a bait and hope for a bite. I suspect that's what some posters here are doing. Other people fly kites. Same purpose. It's not a big step from " ...limiting their capacity or right to have kids .... " to the "final sure-fire solution". "

Answer - Suspicion isn't evidence it's heresay. But you can use suspicion to confirm evidence.
Posted by Canem Malum, Thursday, 14 June 2018 2:07:09 PM
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//i DID say Humans, not europeans in the final sentence.//

So... humans in general cause social & economic mayhem, then? Well, yes, I suppose we do. We do get a helping hand from the odd natural disaster, and we used to from microbes like yersinia pestis (plague) and viruses like variola (smallpox) but we've pretty much shown them who's boss these days. But yeah, a lot of our woes are self-inflicted.

Sorry, what exactly is your point? That if we have less people, there won't be so many to cause social & economic mayhem and it will all just go away? I'm not sure that would happen. And I rather suspect that any overly drastic measures to try ensure that there are less people might well backfire and lead to more social & economic mayhem than would otherwise have been the case. See China's one child policy, which is going to play merry hell with their economy down the track and has led to a highly skewed sex ratio that leads to social problems.
Posted by Toni Lavis, Thursday, 14 June 2018 2:24:26 PM
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Loudmouth, Wednesday, 13 June 2018 1:58:24 PM said- "Just to clarify, the world's population growth is slowing down."

Answer - UN says it’s growing till 2200 based on Bayesian median probability... It's still growing for the next 150 years unless things change- no one is denying that the growth is slowing down. While it's growing more species are becoming endangered - the air is becoming polluted - China is challenging the US for regional control- India is arming- local cultures around the western world are being disenfrancised in their own countries by economic and refugee immigrants. There are pressures building that could be relieved by reversing population growth in large and growing countries.

Loudmouth, Wednesday, 13 June 2018 1:58:24 PM said - "Some idiot suggested copying... China's one-child policy. But any half-wit with any notions of demography could have seen that this would be disastrous in about two generations"

Answer - So it appears Loudmouth agrees it’s not disastrous to have a one child policy for “one generation” then (one generation in China). “Half a generation one child policy” would have huge benefits. I guess you could have a lottery (similar to the draft). There needs to be a better world population management framework. Populations can’t grow openly without psychological and cultural damage or damage neighbouring sovereignty. (The Australian culture has managed its population either by luck or design. Why should good behavior be rewarded by the punishment of forced immigration?)

Replacement rate -
If a couple has a birth on every parents death then the population stays constant assuming no accidents.

Loudmouth, Wednesday, 13 June 2018 1:58:24 PM Said- "old people living longer, that have to be supported"

Answer- Older people are very capable. Pressures have changed society- upon pressure relief- older people have more opportunities with extended families. Impediments in finding work- they help organisations "Meals On Wheels". They have expenses- food, petrol, medicine, maintenance, rates. Ideally their productivity cover expenses- living with their extended families their costs are marginalised. Older people have a bell curve of productive capacity
Posted by Canem Malum, Thursday, 14 June 2018 2:38:51 PM
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Anyway please find the following from Sustainability Australia on Aging Population

- Ageing is only a temporary adjustment, and stops before there is a shortage of workers.
- A stable population would give us similar dependency ratios to the 1960s (boom times!) only with more retirees and fewer children (less schools / not all retirees need support).
- Retirees actually provide many economic and social contributions.
- Fewer people ‘of working age’ means fewer unemployed, not fewer workers (many people of retirement age want supplementary income but can't get it due to competition for positions).

Please find some sites with population statistics and projections below.

http://worldpopulationreview.com/continents/world-population/

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World-Population-1800-2100.svg

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL
Posted by Canem Malum, Thursday, 14 June 2018 2:41:56 PM
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//That was what Malthus (controversial even then) was trying to say in his 1798 book An Essay on the Principle of Population//

Yeah, but Malthus was wrong. Quoting him as an authority is a crap argument.
Posted by Toni Lavis, Thursday, 14 June 2018 2:42:29 PM
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Toni Lavis said "See China's one child policy, which is going to play merry hell with their economy down the track and has led to a highly skewed sex ratio that leads to social problems."

Answer - All management has unintended consequences- but still we must manage our cultures.
Posted by Canem Malum, Thursday, 14 June 2018 2:55:30 PM
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