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The Forum > General Discussion > Some thoughts in our new world

Some thoughts in our new world

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I say our 'new world', because the prosperous world we had just a decade ago has gone, and most likely for the rest of our lifetimes.

So, moving forward, i have a few suggestions on how to curb our spending, and untimately, how to reduce the burden on future generatons, because lets face it, we are unlikely to see a return to surplus any time soon.

Immigration.
This should only be considered when we have unemployment below 5% and only when we have a skill shortage, and only when those wanting to immigrate have something to offer and, they can demonstrate that they will be capable of providing for those they intend to bring in.

We have to put a complete stop to those who either bring in, or choose to have multiple kids on welfare. Our home grown recipients is another challange but it appears we are working on that.

Foriegn Aid.
This should only ever be paid from surpluses because as it stands we pay them first, then make custs to our own peoples needs. Just plain crazy.

In times of deficate, we can use our unemployed to process oversupply of goods and send them off for aid, but not cash because in times like these we simply can't afford it because we are borrowing, paying the interest, then giving it away. Thats a sure fire way to go broke.

Just a thought to end on. A child born a decade ago was born debt free, whereas now, they are born into debt. How is this fair?
Posted by rehctub, Thursday, 18 May 2017 6:35:35 AM
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Yes. Gone for good is probably right. As fewer and fewer people remember Australia as it was, the less chance there is of any recovery.

There should be no immigration at all.

There should be no foreign aid.

There is almost no hope of long term survival as a Western, civilised country now that we do not have viable options for the seditious bunch of politicians in federal and state politics. Almost time for lights out.
Posted by ttbn, Thursday, 18 May 2017 11:10:54 AM
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"In times of deficate"

I'll take that as a typo!!
Posted by Is Mise, Thursday, 18 May 2017 11:57:06 AM
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I agree Rechtub, we are in for an extended period of financial
difficulties.
It is time that we accepted that the debt will not be repaid.
Also it looks like the US debt will not be repaid.

A lot of people in the financial field believe 2017 is the year it will
hit the fan. The US will run out of money in the next two months if
their congress does not approve more "pixel money".
Of course these days "pixel money" is another way of saying "money printing".
"Click money" could be another term. Or "helicopter money".
Either way it is not real.
Some years ago the US congress refused the supply and government employees
were stood down everywhere except defence.
It happened while I was in the US and it was a real shock to people.

So that, whenever it is, is a date to watch.
It could trigger our long awaited real estate crash as interest
rates would be affected.
Specifically back to us, the only way out I can see for us is a debt holiday.
This I think means we just forget about having debt and zero all creditors.
I wonder if housing loans would be zeroed ? I'll bet not.
However our bank deposits might be via the Bail In provisions.
Still, something has to give the situation in Europe cannot go on forever.
Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 18 May 2017 1:33:57 PM
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Your govt has it all under control, Morrison knows how to fix it you stop counting easy fixed.
Today is no different than yesterday so no need to worry. We need a train line and keep your mind off of that NBN.
So what are you going to do when the collapse comes bazz. Eat paint off the walls or eat your neighbor.
A one % increase in home loans will see a mass bankruptcy collapse.
Butch reckons we were debt free a decade ago. Howards massive forward costings fixed that idea. After selling everything that was not bolted down and then he disgraced himself with work choices.
Abbott never got that far, he got the back door and never to return.
Posted by doog, Thursday, 18 May 2017 2:21:19 PM
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Hmmm doog, how old are you ? You might be as tough as old boots.
Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 18 May 2017 3:56:19 PM
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Foreign aid, what a dirty word that is. I saw some of the damage that did in PNG.

Foreign aid should only ever be Oz manufactured goods, never money.

We were giving them hundreds of millions a year, in the 70s when a million was a lot. Quite a bit was used to buy plantations from the Ozzie planters, & give them to the villagers. The villagers had never had anything to do with these plantations, even the labour was imported from other districts.

These plantations quickly went from 30 ton a month to just a couple of tons. When your village is a hundred or even just 25 miles from any town or trade store, with the only transport canoe or feet money is not of much interest, once the plantation trade store is gone.

When the diesel runs out, & the batteries go flat, there are no power tools or sewing machines. The radio no longer works, so you canít order anything to cone on the copra boat, if it is still calling, & you canít call for help in an emergency. The airstrip will be growing trees, so help couldnít come quickly anyway.

All this from giving ďAIDĒ in money. Can you guess it was administered by bureaucrats & academics.
Posted by Hasbeen, Thursday, 18 May 2017 5:06:26 PM
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rehctub,

The following are NOT rhetorical questions:

What will it take to convince you that curbing our spending (at this stage of the economic cycle) is what destroys the prosperity?

What will it take to convince you that government debt is NOT a burden on future generations?

What will it take to convince you that, as long as we stick to the current policy of only borrowing in Australian dollars, we can never go broke? And that as long as our dollar's value is determined by the market not the government, there's no danger of collapse?

These things are important; our policies should not be based on fear of impossible events.

As for your proposals:
Unemployment below 5% should be the norm. When it isn't, we need to adjust economic policy rather than immigration rates.

Instead of preventing people going onto welfare when they need it, spending excessive time on welfare should delay people's eligibility for the age pension.

Our foreign aid should not be limited by short term budgetary constraints.

Emergency aid is needed whenever there's an emergency, medical aid is similarly urgent, promotion of democracy and human rights should pay for itself many times over in reduced need for military spending, and development aid is strongly in our long term interest. We should be increasing our aid spending, not cutting it. Of course we must avoid a repeat of the situation Hasbeen's described, but UIVMM the days of untargetted aid money are long gone.

And your end thought is completely wrong: household debt is higher now than a decade ago, having gone from 104% of GDP to 125% a year ago before sliding to 123% (see http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/households-debt-to-gdp )
Posted by Aidan, Thursday, 18 May 2017 6:38:19 PM
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Hi rehctub. I also agree to your opinion but do you think immigration can actually be eradicated? This is what I'm not really sure about.
Posted by rollyczar, Friday, 19 May 2017 5:05:45 AM
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Hi ttbn, i hope this could be handle in a proper ways too but aren't sure if immigration can totally be stopped.
Posted by rollyczar, Friday, 19 May 2017 5:13:32 AM
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Hi Is Mise, what do you mean by defecate? lol... so funny you.
Posted by rollyczar, Friday, 19 May 2017 5:17:14 AM
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Rollyz, Is Mise...was that a "typoo ?"

Glad we don't have too many spelling/grammar Nazi's on OLO. : )
Posted by Albie Manton in Darwin, Friday, 19 May 2017 8:40:45 AM
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Does this remind you of any of the 'Usual Suspects' on OLO?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2YRMixW9u8

The new Minister For Immigration and Foreign Aid.
Posted by Paul1405, Friday, 19 May 2017 10:20:33 AM
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Of course immigration can be stopped. All we need is politicians who are actually loyal to the country and the people, which of course, we do not have at the present time.

More thoughtful voting is required.

In the meantime, Australia is rooted.
Posted by ttbn, Friday, 19 May 2017 10:31:18 AM
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Maybe we need a way to sack politicians part way through their term of office, if they lied or found to commit fraud etc.

Bishop just gave $44 Million to the UN as a bribe to get a seat on the UN Human Rights Commission. Rudd gave away millions in bribes to get the security council seat.

If a company does the same they are in court.
Posted by Philip S, Friday, 19 May 2017 11:22:55 AM
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Yes more thoughtful voting is required, we need to move away from radicalism and get with the team that can turn us into a more prosperous nation.

We had a version of Austerity tried against us for no other reason than one mans ambition to be a dictator.

A dumbing down of society, now wages need to grow so we can again prosper. We do not need recessionary tactics, we need stimulus to bring back confidence and spending.
Posted by doog, Friday, 19 May 2017 11:57:40 AM
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"Maybe we need a way to sack politicians part way through their term of office, if they lied or found to commit fraud etc."

There is, its called a 'Coup D'etat' They are all the rage in places like Africa. Should General Brassbottom call upon himself, and his army mob, and determine that the elected mod have lied and defrauded. He could take over and appoint himself El Supremo for life.
Very progressive those Africans on that sort of thing.
Posted by Paul1405, Friday, 19 May 2017 11:59:09 AM
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Rolly, i dont think we need to put a complete stop to immigration at all, its just that at present we cant pay our own bills and look after whos here, so surely bringing more in is plain dumb. Balance the books first, then INVITE those who will be of benefit to us and who will contribute and not hold their hands out.

Doog, we went down the Kevin 07 experiment pathway and look what a mess that created. Surely you're not suggesting we do more of the same? Although part of me thinks we should allow labor back in so we can find rock bottom, because at least then the only way to go is up. We will also be forced to say no to a lot of things we are just incapable of now.

PAUL. Do you think foreign aid should be paid before our bills as it currently is, or after?
Posted by rehctub, Friday, 19 May 2017 4:14:31 PM
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Rechtub there are people way out on the limb that can only see more
of the same as the solution. Any dill can see that increased
population only increases growth due to that population.
It is a zero sum gain. What is need, if increased growth really is
a good idea, is growth per head.
The rising cost of energy is as blunt a warning as you will ever get.
Just look at the falling profits of the major oil companies if you want to see the future.
15 years ago oil was $25 a barrel and they reckon it is cheap at $50 !
Posted by Bazz, Friday, 19 May 2017 5:27:01 PM
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Bazz, ive been on olo for ten years now and for as long as i can remember you have warned about rising energy prices.

While many on this site simply cant handle the truth, i have watched not only the effects but i also see the hesitation growing in large businesses that rely heavily on affordable energy, so you were spot on.

For me nuclear is the only real solution in the forseable future but as Barnaby Joice says, frogs and worms have to take a back seat on this one.

What people dont understand is that if big business is chased away, we simply won't have the money to lure them back.

Like it or not, we are a global player, isolated, miles from anywhere, grossly over regulated, grossly over priced yet certain groups take so much for granted.

You would have thought a lesson would have been learned from the car industry. But we are reactive, not proactive in our thinking and that will hurt us one day.

The real test of security wil, come if our resouces lay untouched.
Posted by rehctub, Saturday, 20 May 2017 7:10:23 AM
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Hello Rehctub, our problem is that the politicians seem to be as
ignorant as the general population.
I once had a meeting with the Minister for Infrastructure Paul Fletcher.
I pointed out the risk to an economy that imports 100% of liquid fuels.
I indicated how a major fire in the Singapore refinery, or similar
on the Korean refinery, or a military situation that sank an oil tanker
or a Middle East situation that stopped oil leaving the Gulf would
cause a cessation of supply to Australia.
There would be a worldwide scramble for oil.
Sydney alone requires two oil tankers a day.

His response, "We have good commercial arrangements !"

I was speechless ! What bloody good would he think that would do it
if the insurance companies stopped the tankers coming or our cargoes
were diverted by the owners to their home countries. eg Mobil to the US.

That is just a illustration of their disconnect from reality.
To make things worse the State government has banned the Emergency
Management organisations from preparing a Disaster Plan for fuel shortage.

I get really angry when I think about that. In a couple of weeks
after supply started drying up we would start to face starvation.
Three days after the tanker drivers strike in the UK the women were
fighting in the aisles over the last tins of food.

Arrrggghhh !
Posted by Bazz, Saturday, 20 May 2017 9:47:41 AM
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What happened to Turnbulls Jobs and growth. You blokes do not realise, industry does not happen without help.
This govt; has done zilch and has created an atmosphere of NO TRUST in govt; Confidence is at rock bottom. Abbott has had a big hand in that, with his interference.
Nothing short of an election will solve the problem.
With all of the Penny pinching Turnbull has done has amounted to nothing as the debt has doubled.
The time is ripe for stimulus not austerity. We are being mismanaged
Posted by doog, Saturday, 20 May 2017 10:10:17 AM
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Deloitte has opined that SA with 7.3% unemployment needs to double its population. Wouldn't that just double unemployment? No mention of the fact that we don't have a reliable power supply, or that the brilliant Weatherill government has just announced it will spend millions to pay people to use less power!
Posted by ttbn, Saturday, 20 May 2017 10:42:02 AM
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Australian money is the property of the Australian people
and should be spent in Australia, not on foreign aid.

America has spent trillions on its foreign wars.
The wars would have been over long ago if they hadn't pussy footed around
trying not to hurt anyone, or simply closed their borders 15years ago to Muslim immigration.

Trying to save the world with foreign aid and pussy wars have bought Australia
and America to a state of having debts they needn't now have.

It was known 25years ago, that we had an aging populaton. All the foreign aid billions
Sent overseas in those years could have been set aside to pay the pensions for the aged.
That would now be one less big drain on government funds, as it would be coming out
of that money had it been set aside.
Posted by CHERFUL, Sunday, 21 May 2017 12:53:43 AM
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Correction Chereful, it is NOT Australian money that is being spent
on foreign aid, it is the lenders money !
We are borrowing the money to put out in foreign aid.
Then we pay interest on it.
Of course there is another way to look at it.
Accept that it will NEVER be repaid and so what the hell, give other
peoples money away ! Isn't that how we work internally ?
Same principle. I think it is called socialism ?
Posted by Bazz, Sunday, 21 May 2017 11:42:56 AM
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the following link explains why is Australian
foreign aid so important:

http://theconversation.com/why-is-australian-foreign-aid-so-important-18428
Posted by Foxy, Sunday, 21 May 2017 4:16:07 PM
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So Foxy whether we have the money or not ?
Keep this up and we will be looking for aid.
Posted by Bazz, Sunday, 21 May 2017 10:10:17 PM
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Bazz,
I understand what you are saying, but it is still the Australian taxpayer
who is expected to keep on paying our debit back, not the countries it is being handed
out to. Forever handed out to, it seems.

If for the last 30years those billions hadn't been going overseas, we may not have had to borrow so much money.

And it still doesn't make much sense to hand out money when we are up to our ears in
borrowed money.

Not to mention the billion dollars a year, Nauru was costing us.
I don't feel responsible for the troubles of other countries at all. It is largely of their own making.

Western countries tried to warn them about their overpopulation 40 or 50years ago.
But they said it was a white plot, and went right on populating.
Now they have used all their resources, they want to come over here and take ours.
Actions have consequences. Overpopulating has consequences.

Not the least being, the using of all the trees for fuel and shelter. No trees,
no rain. Drought and famine.
Posted by CHERFUL, Sunday, 21 May 2017 10:54:18 PM
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The quote heard over the coast guard!

"No politician in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly."

So we're forgetting those who were imprisoned, stabbed or just plain shot...

Jenifer
Posted by Jenifer, Sunday, 21 May 2017 11:01:55 PM
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Bazz and CHERFUL,

We are literally at 0% of our credit limit. So why are you so paranoid about going broke?

I refer you to the questions I asked rehctub on this thread on Thursday.

As for overpopulation, ITYF people are going to keep having big families until they can be confident their children will survive to have children of their own.
Posted by Aidan, Monday, 22 May 2017 12:24:34 AM
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Oh well Aiden, then I see, we can borrow an infinite amount of money.
I thought not ever being repaid is the same thing.
Well, lets throw a party.
Of course, so long as it Australian dollars.
We can use that borrowing to buy a few thousand printing machines.
Employ all the unemployed to run them and write a loop for treasuries computer.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 22 May 2017 1:34:11 PM
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Bazz, be serious. I didn't say we should waste any of the money. We shouldn't.
Debt doesn't matter but the deficit does.
Currently the economy is in trouble because the deficit's too small. But a deficit too big is an equally serious problem.
Posted by Aidan, Monday, 22 May 2017 1:51:36 PM
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The deficit is the difference between what the U.S. Government takes in from taxes and other revenues, called receipts, and the amount of money it spends, called outlays. The items included in the deficit are considered either on-budget or off-budget.
You can think of the total debt as accumulated deficits plus accumulated off-budget surpluses. The on-budget deficits require the U.S. Treasury to borrow money to raise cash needed to keep the government operating. It borrows the money by selling securities to the public.
The Treasury securities issued to the public and to the Government Trust Funds then become part of the total debt.
Posted by doog, Monday, 22 May 2017 2:08:38 PM
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The biggest problem is household debt. Our wages are not big enough to cover household debt;
When you have more debt than income you have a problem. If it is going to take 15 months to pay for your debts with 12 months of wages, you have unsustainable debt.
Gimmy more muney now.
Posted by doog, Monday, 22 May 2017 2:24:56 PM
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doog, did you copy that off an American website?
This thread is about Australia not the US.

Household debt can be a problem, but as long as interest rates remain low, large amounts of it can be sustained. The biggest problem with household debt is the unpredictability of household income.
Posted by Aidan, Monday, 22 May 2017 2:36:57 PM
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I there REHCTUB...

I agree with much of what you say there BUTCH on Immigration and Foreign Aid. I stand to be corrected, but I heard the money we give out in Foreign Aid, is money we need to borrow. We actually have to borrow money from some creditor Nation, in order to then give it away to another more indigent Nation. In fact there wouldn't be too many parents who'd do such a thing, even to assist one of their progeny.

Moreover it doesn't make particularly good economic sense to permit more immigrants to come here, unless and until they can fully support themselves, or have a strong potential to support themselves. Neither of these current existing strategies are in anyway assisting in repressing our burgeoning debt, rather it's just adding to it exponentially.
Posted by o sung wu, Monday, 22 May 2017 3:00:18 PM
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