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The Forum > General Discussion > Is Ideology making South Australia a failed state?

Is Ideology making South Australia a failed state?

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After 4 power blackouts in 4 months, the highest electricity prices in the country, and the the highest unemployment, investors are avoiding South Australia and existing businesses are folding.

Wetherill's solution to this crisis was to expand the interconnect, but now with Victoria's huge brown coal tax Hazelwood power station is closing:

"A plan for South Australia to import­ more baseload power from Victoria to ease its power crisis has been suspended by the national electricity market operator because of a “potential stabil­ity issue” linked to the state’s wind-reliant grid."

Essentially Victoria is cutting off South Australia to avoid the risk of network contagion, as the SA's demand when wind and solar power drop off is likely to coincide with Victoria's high demand when its wind and solar drop off.

"South Australia’s Labor government, which has a renewable energy target of 50 per cent by 2025, encouraged the closure of its last coal-fired power station in May last year, as its renewable energy mix rose above 40 per cent."

SA is looking increasingly like having to reverse its renewable policies at huge cost. It is already having to pay Pelican point a vast sum to reopen and provide back up, the question is whether it will be forced to re open the coal fired power station, and cut back on the renewable power generation?
Posted by Shadow Minister, Sunday, 22 January 2017 7:17:42 AM
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How could SA nnever become a failed State,
it has Senator Sarah Hanson-Young to look after it in the Federal sphere and Mark Parnell MLC and Tammy Franks MLC, all good Greens, to help prop up Wetherill's wacky ideas.

Send in an administrator.
Posted by Is Mise, Sunday, 22 January 2017 1:41:13 PM
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Dear SM,

Well now you are laughing, but South Australia is getting better-prepared for the post-electricity era then the rest!

Take the test: I wonder how many matches and candles you can find in your home?

Dear Is Mise,

The people of South Australia are going to be free and your sinister administrator will stumble in the dark: nobody is able to impose their rule over people who are not addicted to power!
Posted by Yuyutsu, Sunday, 22 January 2017 2:10:51 PM
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How many states have a taxi driver as treasurer? SA does. Taxi drivers are important, necessary people. Too important to be playing playing treasurers. The stupidity of the man is amazing.
Posted by ttbn, Sunday, 22 January 2017 4:08:45 PM
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SA is fully functional; it is not a failed state and nor is it becoming one.
However it is a state that has had more failures than most.
And many of those failures are down to ideology, but not in the way you think.

The real problem is a fear of debt. In the 1990s the state Liberals (recognising the large debt from Labor's failed commercial ventures could be a useful scapegoat) promoted the meme that our state debt was a millstone holding us down, preventing us from doing anything much.

Instead of properly investing to meet future requirements, the government ended up pursuing false economies to cut the debt figure. One of those was the privatisation of ETSA, resulting in the state government effectively losing control of electricity supply and pricing. IIRC SA's electricity supply was at its most unreliable in late 2000 / early 2001.

Since then, investment in wind and solar power has put downward pressure on electricity prices, but they're being financed in a rather inefficient way (cross subsidies and no special access to cheap finance). Unfortunately the government's reluctant to get more directly involved. But that problem's not unique to SA, and so far this month Queensland has had higher wholesale prices than SA - see http://reneweconomy.com.au/jumping-electricity-prices-gas-gas-gas-60783/

The network contagion issue is a technical problem that will be addressed - stop treating it like an insurmountable obstacle! And there's no chance at all of reopening the coal fired power station; it's been demolished and good riddance. And it would be incredibly dumb to cut back on renewable power generation; doing so would increase our electricity prices. What we really need is solar thermal, plus a connection to Broken Hill so that northern SA never gets cut off again.
Posted by Aidan, Sunday, 22 January 2017 5:00:11 PM
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Aidan,

Have you been living overseas, the price of electricity has nearly doubled due to the vast subsidies for the renewable power and solar thermal will double it again.

The price of power in Victoria is set to increase by 10% from the closure of Hazelwood, and even more from renewable subsidies. On top of which Victoria will have less spare capacity to provide support when Tasmania and SA renewables dip.

The SA labor government should be taken out and flogged for vast incompetence.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Sunday, 22 January 2017 6:32:16 PM
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Dear Shadowminister,

How dare you.

For one thing it is the ideology of your party that has stripped the state of a vehicle manufacturing industry. You have been the one here spruiking free trade deals, slashing of any last tariffs, and 457 visa holders.

You had the temerity to label someone on this forum as a xenophobe because he questioned the free trade deal with China and the TPP. I think Trump is a disaster but I can empathise with those who felt threatened enough by your brand of ideology to go and vote the guy in. They must have been very desperate.

You really should take a long hard look at what you have had to sacrifice of yourself to follow so blindly an ideology so harmful to so many Australians.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Sunday, 22 January 2017 8:04:52 PM
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We hear little about wave power generation in Australia even though one station, at least, is feeding power into the grid in Western Australia.

Wonder which political party opposes wave power generation?
Posted by Is Mise, Sunday, 22 January 2017 8:08:18 PM
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Shadow,
I was living overseas at the turn of the millennium, so my knowledge of the severe cost and reliability problems is heavily reliant on The Advertiser's coverage of it (their website was pretty good in those early days). Are you claiming all those brownouts and rolling blackouts were a media beatup?

Since returning in late 2003 I have not been overseas.

I don't dispute that the price of electricity has nearly doubled. But the claim that this is due to the vast subsidies for renewable power shows that you're ignoring the facts and basing your opinion on your prejudices instead! Haven't you ever seen the cost breakdowns? Most of the increase is network costs (and network operator's huge profits). Fuel costs have risen substantially (particularly for gas, which has long been SA's main energy source for generating electricity). The subsidies for renewables make up a single figure percentage of the electricity price.

Solar thermal, being somewhat dispatchable, should be profitable unsubsidized as long as it has access to cheap finance — and by producing electricity when it's needed most, it will do much more to drive down the total cost than wind power and solar PV alone.
Posted by Aidan, Sunday, 22 January 2017 8:29:09 PM
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SR,

What a hissy fit!!,

I have never seen you lie so blatantly before.

1 - The car industry was destroyed primarily by Labor. Note that 2 of the 4 car manufacturers decided to close up shop under labor, and 75% of the work force was retrenched under labor. The primary cause being the new Labour laws, the militant unions and the wildly unrealistic labour costs in the car industry. By the end of 2013 the local manufacturers had lost nearly 90% of their market, and there was no long term future for the industry. The huge subsidies essentially paid the wages of everyone that worked there, and they still made a loss.

2 - The only time I called someone a xenophobe was not just because he challenged the free trade deal, but his basis for challenging the deal was because it was with the chinese. Perhaps the correct term should have been racist. (which seems to be very common trait in unionists)

3 - Free trade has been the basis of the economic growth over the past 5 decades, and only an economic ignoramus would oppose it. I guess that makes you just like Trump and Hoover.

4 - I do prefer skilled 457 visa employees who create jobs and pay taxes over the 50 000 illegal immigrants most of which are still on welfare and costing the taxpayer hundreds of $m.

I make no apologies for my views which are founded on sound science, economics and morals, unlike the wanton waste and incompetence of Labor and the Greens.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Sunday, 22 January 2017 8:51:12 PM
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Dear Shadowminister,

Oh come on.

No mention of the Aussie dollar at $1.10 US because of the mining boom? A boom that almost everyone could see would come to an end? It is now at .75 cents, an increase in compeditiveness of over 30% for our manufacturing workers.

Romney wanted to withdraw assistence for the US car industry during the GFC and let it fail. Obama instead supported it with loans which were paid back within 2 years.

As to wages how come the German car manufacturers are making twice as many cars as the US while paying their workers 50% more?

You wrote;

“The only time I called someone a xenophobe was not just because he challenged the free trade deal, but his basis for challenging the deal was because it was with the chinese. Perhaps the correct term should have been racist.”

Absolute bulldust my friend.

Here is the relevant converstation - http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=6948&page=0#212158

None of this was about race rather than about Australian jobs and the stripping of mandatory skill requirements. You were the rightwing elietist who slung the 'xenophobic' slur to quieten any criticism of an ideology driven by unbridled worship of laissez faire capitalism. Please don't feign any concern for SA jobs, it is purely lipservice.

Your views are not “founded on sound science, economics and morals” but rather a discredited trickle down economic ideology which is gutting the middle classes in so many countries.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Sunday, 22 January 2017 9:30:13 PM
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Shadow,

'Tis true that when the highly polluting Hazelwood power station closes, the price of power in Victoria will go up. However the effect is likely to be limited by the high capacity interstate connections that Victoria already has. And AIUI Victoria only supplies Tasmania in the off-peak; Tasmania supplies Victoria in the peaks.

The SA Labor government are dreadfully incompetent: their PPP deal to move the RAH to the other side of the CBD is probably the worst ever decision for our economy in purely financial terms. The trouble is the state Libs are also keen on stupid projects, and don't support good projects such as encouraging the use of renewable energy.

As for the car industry, there's a widespread consensus that the only reason its closure wasn't announced in the Howard era is that after The Advertiser reported the decision to close it had already been made, those in charge decided to keep it open a few months longer to save face.

The car industry employing fewer people was the result of more mechanisation: a good thing because it reduced costs. And militant unions are mainly an eastern states problem, rarely affecting SA.

It was the Abbott government's lack of support which finally killed off the car industry, but car manufacturing is no longer the high value activity it once was. It's unlikely it could've lasted much longer whoever was in charge. The real problem is manufacturing in general: governments have set interest rates far too high for SA (making it unnecessarily expensive to invest in new equipment) and high interest rates have also pushed our dollar higher than is justified by our balance of trade. That, not the mining boom, is what caused most damage to our manufacturers, and both Labor and Liberal failed to deal with the problem.
Posted by Aidan, Sunday, 22 January 2017 10:50:00 PM
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SR

Complete bulldust to you too.

I see that you have happily skipped over the fact that under labor, even with massive subsidies to the car industry to the point where the government was paying the salary of every person, the local manufacturers had lost most of their market share to imports. This led to the retrenchment of 75% of workers in the industry and the announcement of the closure of 50% of the manufacturing companies. The high AU$ played a large part, but predominantly it was the tiny size of the AU market. The car industry was essentially dead by the end of 2013. And the only way to save the industry was to reimpose massive tariffs.

You also conveniently forget that the US market is 15x the size, and that the car industry was "saved" when all the manufacturers went into chapter 11, imposed a new work agreements that cut wages and stripped workers of most of their entitlements to make them competitive again. The German car industry also benefits from economies of scale where they produce nearly 5x the number of cars per worker, and from the tariff protection against importing cars into the EU.

The opposition against the FTA was essentially a labor xenophobic scare campaign. The agreement which is similar the US FTA requires equal pay on the 457 visas which in effect made chinese labor more expensive than local labor. The proof of the pudding, after 2 years of the FTA, is the complete lack of swarms of chinese workers.

It is entirely market capitalism over the last 70 years that has lifted most of humanity out of poverty, created a massive middle class in India, China and other countries, and given the wealth to enable social welfare programs. However, it is not unfettered, and with laws in place to prevent anti competitive behaviour, and the worst excesses, we owe our lifestyle and welfare to capitalism.

And as your morals go, lying seems to not be a problem. I have never espoused trickle down economics, and you can search as far as you wish.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Monday, 23 January 2017 5:00:33 AM
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Pylons don't fall over because of renewable power. it's called climate change, and each and every state will feel the changing times.
Posted by doog, Monday, 23 January 2017 6:54:25 AM
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At what degree of climate change heat do those pylons melt Doog?
Posted by Hasbeen, Monday, 23 January 2017 9:42:59 AM
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Dear Shadowminister,

Now that is twice you have accused me of lying in this exchange. I accept it has become a normative behaviour from your side, especially when you are called out on a claim, but it remains uncouth, bullying, and something you should be called on to substantiate.

So please show me one instance where I have lied in either of my two replies to you.

When I directly asked you to show why you deemed doog was not only xenophobic but also a racist from your linked exchange you gave nothing, instead shifting the debate to Labour. Could you please answer the question about doog.

Your elietist smearing of others with xenophobia is exactly why people like Trump are in the ascendancy

As to you lack of support for trickle-down economics can I draw you to one of your responses in a thread;

“Tax cuts for business is not just for the "trickle down", the problem is that company tax is regarded by investors as a cost of doing business, and with an increasingly global economy Australia with one of the highest company tax rates in the OECD, high personnel costs, and start up unfriendly financing rules is looking extremely uncompetitive.”

Here you are acknowledging the trickle down component of your party's tax cuts yet are you really going to make the case that you don't support that component of them?

Actually it would be instructive to know exactly what you mean by trickle down economics. Please explain.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Monday, 23 January 2017 10:29:41 AM
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SR,

Your comment:

"How dare you.

For one thing it is the ideology of your party that has stripped the state of a vehicle manufacturing industry"

Is a bald faced lie. First the tariff protection reductions were started by Hawke and Keating, including those introduced to protect the car industry, and as I showed previously the six years of labor did far more damage than the Abbot government.

Secondly I said that doog was being xenophobic not that he was a xenophobe. This xenophobia is being driven by Labor (note Shorten's tirade against the Japanese potentially getting the subs contract went as far as rank racism.) especially since the FTA with the US has similar conditions which labor ignored.

Thirdly as the only time you can find me mentioning trickle down denying that it was the main justification for tax cuts which is definitely not espousing it. Just admit that you cocked it up. The trickle-down effect is real and measurable, however, as in a closed system the benefits flow mostly to the wealthy, which is why I have never espoused it. However, in an open system a reduction in corporate taxes does more than just encourage internal investment, it encourages investment from international sources and creates highly paid skilled jobs. Notably the wages of the bottom 25% of Australians increased by more under John Howard than any other time in Australian History.

Definition: - http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trickledowntheory.asp

Finally, if you are such a delicate flower to feel "bullied" by people pointing out your falsehoods, then either don't post them or refrain from using such robust language such as "how dare you".

Aidan,

The costs of renewables are not just from the subsidies, but also from the new networks to service the renewables, the cost of peak power back up from Victoria, and from the resultant closure of the cheap coal power and combined cycle gas power that struggle to run with wildly varying renewable supply.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Monday, 23 January 2017 12:20:39 PM
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Dear Shadowminister,

How on earth is that a bald faced lie?

Here is a SMH report of the timeline.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/taunts-in-parliament-and-text-brought-about-general-motors-holdens-exit-from-australia-20131211-2z6i6.html

Remember? Hockey and Truss gleefully daring Holden to go.

Unless you have proof the company was going to exit with or without being supported through the high dollar regime at the time then yes it was the ideology of your party that ultimately saw off the industry in SA. Do you have any figures to show that with the dollar at .75 subsidies would need to continue? Probably not. All you have is a habit of calling people liars even when the facts are shoved in your face.

You wrote;

“Secondly I said that doog was being xenophobic not that he was a xenophobe.”

Rubbish.

Earlier in this thread you clearly said;

“The only time I called someone a xenophobe was not just because he challenged the free trade deal, but his basis for challenging the deal was because it was with the chinese. Perhaps the correct term should have been racist.”

Revisionistic spin on top of branding someone who calls you out a liar?

Manufacturing sustains 5 Australian jobs for each unit of relative production compared to 2 for mining and one for farming.

Your elitist lot with your insane hatred of unions have been determined to rip support away from our manufacturing industries, to sign up for lopsided trade deals that directly impact workers wages just so your coalition buddies can sell some more wheat or your big donors more coal.

That is why I get to say “How dare you”.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Monday, 23 January 2017 4:37:03 PM
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Hasbeen,

The pylons aren't falling over because of melting; wind damage is the problem, and climate change results in bigger storms.

__________________________________________________________________________________

Shadow,

There were valid concerns about ChAFTA. The government did a deal with Labor to address those concerns before the ChAFTA legislation got through the Senate. See http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/chafta-labor-strikes-deal-with-government/news-story/7a854be0f6769c5b5613039509181eaa

Please also note that the absence of a worst case scenario within the first two years doesn't say much about the validity of any concerns.

Overly focussing on foreign investment rather than domestic investment is another thing that drives our dollar too high, though not as badly as our higher interest rates.

What is the source of your claim that government subsidies to the car industry exceeded the wages the car manufacturers paid?

Most of what you think are the costs of renewables are illusory. There haven't yet been any new networks to serve the renewables, and most wind farms are near existing transmission lines. When we get electricity from Victoria, it's because electricity's cheaper there. Both the buyer and seller benefit from trade.

The coal fired power stations at Port Augusta were highly polluting, adversely affecting the health of Port Augusta residents. I certainly wasn't sorry to see them go. And the CCGT power station at Pelican Point wasn't struggling to run; it was struggling to make a profit, partly because the company that owned it wasn't a major electricity retailer in SA. Now that there's less electricity coming from coal, I very much doubt they'll have that problem any more.
Posted by Aidan, Monday, 23 January 2017 5:18:40 PM
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SR

Still lying I see.

Ducking and diving to avoid the fact that Labor shredded the car industry between 2007 and 2013. That 2 of the 4 car manufacturers pulled the pin under labor and 75% of workers were retrenched under labor makes the lie more disgusting. That the coalition was reluctant to increase the taxpayer funded bailout for much fewer workers and cars produced to the point of $2000 per car is understandable.

Roughly calculated, the bailout would have equalled an average of $65 000 per person p.a. or more employed at Holden. You can do the maths.

As for me called Doog a xenophobe, at the time you made the claim, I hadn't so you lied there too. I responded without checking whether you lied.

That I can't stand the blatant and uncontrolled corruption of the unions that represent less than 1/6th of workers, that routinely break the law beat up opposition and threaten workers and management is exactly why I dare to challenge the hypocrites on this forum.

Aidan,

The concessions to labor were minor and a figleaf to help them cover up their anti economic protectionist stance. The two years certainly make your fears of the yellow peril look misguided.

The costs of renewables are certain not illusory especially to businesses. And the import of power from Victoria is because SA cannot supply itself, and has been as high as $1000 /MWhr compared to the mean cost of existing coal generation of less than $50/MWhr.

Anyone considering starting a new manufacturing business in SA would be faced with huge and unreliable power costs.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Monday, 23 January 2017 6:53:06 PM
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Aidan,

Are you able to give an instance of, or a reference to, ill health caused by coal power production at Port Augusta.
Posted by ttbn, Monday, 23 January 2017 7:02:00 PM
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ttbn:

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/port-augusta-is-sas-cancer-hotspot/news-story/d2ed7532527bf669df9666b933dc7cd9

__________________________________________________________________________________

Shadow,

I'm not the one with "fears of the yellow peril" and I'm pro free trade. But many people did have genuine concerns about ChAFTA. And after negotiation, those concerns were addressed to the satisfaction of Labor, though not to the satisfaction of the Greens or the Xmen.

"The costs of renewables are certain not illusory especially to businesses"
Then where exactly are these "new networks" that were required to serve renewables?

Some of the costs of renewables have hit businesses harder than households, but the fact remains that your original claim that "the price of electricity has nearly doubled due to the vast subsidies for the renewable power" is a lie: most of the cost increase has nothing to do with renewable power. And your prediction that "solar thermal will double it again" shows that you use prejudice against renewables as a substitute for reason.

SA can supply itself, as it always did before it was linked to Victoria in the early '90s. But since privatisation, electricity companies set their output according to what's most lucrative, not what's most needed.

And all mainland states (even Victoria) have wholesale spikes well above the generation cost, and have done since before any wind turbines were on the grid.

"Anyone considering starting a new manufacturing business in SA would be faced with huge and unreliable power costs"
More likely huge OR unreliable power costs, depending whether they bought their electricity at retail or wholesale prices. The same is true in our other states.
Posted by Aidan, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 1:32:39 AM
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Aidan,

This is 'proof' of your claim? The oh-so-reliable media, and a diagnosis by the "locals". Health Minister Hill begged to differ, and clearly there was no further action or discussion on the matter after 2010. If there was anything to the wild claim, the whole thing would still be in the courts, and the state would be awash with rich lawyers.

You are too easily lead, Aidan. Baaa, baaa!
Posted by ttbn, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 9:30:58 AM
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Dear Mr. SM,

I have been in SA for many many years and the answer to SA becomming a failed state is that SA IS a failed state . The only reason that it continues is that being part of a federation of states is that the rest of Australia supports SA. The reason that it could exist on its renewable energy is that it does not have major industriess worth talking about - miining being the main industry. The defence industry exists only because of government contracts. There is no major defence exports. The steel industry only exists because of government handouts. With some of the highest unemployment in the country, no employment for the young, no "real" industries in the forseeable future what else could SA be but a failed state. If SA was a country in its own right it would be an impovrished third world country.

Yours Sincerely,

Jerry.
Posted by simplesimon, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 11:13:57 AM
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Aidan,

The pricing of electricity is completely independent of whether the network or power stations are independently or privately owned.

The network buys power from the producers with a certain amount based on contracted prices and the rest (about 50%) based on the spot prices, where the spot prices are based on bids for power in 10 minute segments. The power generators typically submit graded bids with small amounts at $0 (for coal generators to keep the turbines ticking over) and increasing as the cost of putting more power on line increases, (gas turbines are far more expensive and only kick in at peak demands). The higher the deficit in demand, the higher the peak prices.

The peak demand periods normally occur between 5pm and 8pm, and if there no wind, there is virtually no renewable power available, and the deficit is huge, with power prices spiking to levels never seen before.

As I said previously, the prices are impacted in 3 ways:
- Subsidies this increases household costs by 10% and large users by much more.
- Networks have to be expanded to reach new generation sites. Note that these networks have to be designed for 100% capacity when renewables supply on average 30% or less.
- Cheap coal and gas cogen baseload generators trying to load match with renewables increases their cost and reduces their output. This generally leads to their closure.

Just look at this basic comparison:

http://www.euanmearns.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/europeelectricprice.png
Posted by Shadow Minister, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 11:39:50 AM
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You are drawing a long bow to say all wind turbines stop simultaneously. Even the sun shines somewhere. Location and elevation is as very diverse.
Posted by doog, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 11:55:17 AM
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Now children behave yourselves.
Too much squabbling and not enough solutions.

Now I will throw a brick in.
South Aus will never get that connector to NSW.
Why ?; Well a week or a bit ago NSW got to 99% of its generating capacity.
It the started sucking power from Queensland and Victoria.
Now what will happen when Hazlewood closes in March ?
Next summer we should find out.
Posted by Bazz, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 2:02:28 PM
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ttbn,
"This is 'proof' of your claim?"
No, it's a reference to ill health caused by coal power production at Port Augusta. Which is exactly what you asked for.

There's obviously a huge difference in the way we think. Unlike you I don't go around wherever I'm led saying "Baaa, baaa!" – instead I look for evidence and explanations. And where the observed effects are consistent with the theoretical outcome, I presume it to be true in the absence of any credible alternative hypothesis.

Getting compensation for air pollution is notoriously difficult. Did they ever manage it after the Hazelwood fire? I know Morwell residents considered a class action, but nothing seems to have come of it. Anyway, Port Augusta residents didn't want compensation; they wanted the power station closed. And it was, though the dust released by its demolition has created more problems.

_________________________________________________________________________________

simplesimon,

States in a federation are meant to help one another. Needing help is not evidence of failure.

Were SA an independent nation with its own currency, it could set its interest rates lower to ensure it got the investment it required. But being part of Australia, we can't do that, and the Federal government is failing to adequately compensate us for having interest rates too high.
Posted by Aidan, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 2:14:23 PM
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Aidan,

So, the whole thing was a non-event. There is no evidence of deleterious health effects from coal-powered electricity in Port Augusta. I'm sure that there is no such evidence any where in the world where coal-fired power is used.

In other words, you were being mischievous, even untruthful.,
Posted by ttbn, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 3:04:20 PM
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Bazz you forgot Tas again it does exist they have oodles of excess power now that it has rained. It's time to build that little dam down there that should have been done years ago. It's all to do with our changing climate, it even melts pylons Hasbeen said so and he would know, wouldn't he.
Posted by doog, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 4:25:36 PM
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Dear Shadowminister,

“As for me called Doog a xenophobe, at the time you made the claim, I hadn't so you lied there too. I responded without checking whether you lied.”

My goodness.

Lol. I think we had better leave it there.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 4:57:30 PM
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Agreed, you've hit rock bottom.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 5:06:21 PM
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Dear Shadow Minister,

Once you hit rock bottom - there's no place
else to go but up!
Posted by Foxy, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 5:16:54 PM
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Up would be good.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 5:35:41 PM
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Dear Shadow Minister,

Yes, but you have to want to begin again on
new and solid ground. That is the gift of
rock bottom - are you up to - aiming for it?
Posted by Foxy, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 5:58:08 PM
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Shadow,

I'm aware of how the NEM works. But the electricity companies have so much market power that when electricity is needed they often find it more profitable to refrain from generating more.

Wind power is not to blame for the high spot prices. As I pointed out further up this thread, Queensland, with no wind turbines, has had higher spot prices than SA this month.

Regarding the price impact:
- AIUI the highest figure claimed for the price impact of subsidies for large users was 20%.

- Networks only had to be expanded slightly - the new generation areas tend to be near existing transmission lines. And even with power from fossil fuels, transmission networks have to be designed for 100% capacity when the average output is 30% or less.

- Inefficient old coal fired power stations, which we have been effectively subsidising by not charging them the costs of the pollution they produce, have recently become uneconomic to run. But gas generators generally have good load following ability, and the wholesale electricity market (sand indeed the weather forecast) allows the power companies to plan their output in advance. AFAIK none of them have closed.

And yes, I've seen the international price comparisons. But instead of blindly assuming that more renewables = more expense, I've looked at the real reasons why those countries have higher power costs than those with a lower share from renewables. For example, Germany's main reason for having expensive power is that it's phasing out nuclear power. And many European countries used gross feedin tariffs to promote rooftop solar, even though this was known to be very expensive.

I'd like to see renewables resulting in lower electricity prices, and I believe we've reached the stage where that is technically achievable, particularly with solar thermal. But funding it remains a problem. The best solution is to use concessional loans. As I said in my reply to simplesimon, Australia's interest rates are set too high for SA. Concessional loans for renewable energy (instead of relying on production subsidies) would do much to help revive the SA economy.
Posted by Aidan, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 5:58:52 PM
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One of the reasons that Holdens are gone is some of the poor vehicles that they made.
We have a Statesman and it is a good highway car and is excellent from a mechanical aspect but the bodywork leaves much to be desired and access, particularly for the driver, is restricted and this is on a big car.

The Callais that followed it had the roofline raised by 3 inches so that normal people could get into drive it without contortions.

The Commodore suffers from the same problem of restricted access and I'm only 5 foot 8 1/2 inches tall.

Our much smaller but well designed Toyota doesn't suffer from the same lack of design.
Posted by Is Mise, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 6:20:37 PM
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Aiden,

Essentially you are accusing the energy companies of price fixing and collusion, which is firstly highly illegal, and secondly easily detectable.

As for spot prices:

https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard

https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/annual-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices

High spot prices normally occur when there is a significant deficit between demand and supply. Queensland has had a huge spike in demand for power, thus a larger than usual spike in spot prices, but nothing like the peak of $1000 /MWhr in SA.

At least you admit that nuclear power is cheaper than renewables. However, renewables power prices amongst all but the most fanatical.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Tuesday, 24 January 2017 7:33:26 PM
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Bazz,
You're the mischievous, even untruthful one.

Port Augusta had a high incidents of respiratory disorders, including lung cancer and asthma, which could not be adequately accounted for by differences in the smoking rate. Such effects are common around the world where coal-fired power is used, particularly when it's brown coal.
__________________________________________________________________________________

Is Mise,
That surprises me, as in the late 20th century it was Mitsubishi who had the reputation for bodywork leaving much to be desired; Holden's reputation was much better in that regard.
__________________________________________________________________________________

Shadow,
I am not claiming collusion. What I am claiming is that many electricity generating companies, without conspiring with their competitors, often choose to not to generate more electricity at a time when doing so would be profitable, as letting the price go higher is more profitable.

There are many variables that affect the price of different electricity generation methods, so it is too simplistic to say "nuclear power is cheaper than renewables" without considering the context. But in the context of present day Germany, it is safe to say they'd've been financially better off had they decided not to phase out nuclear.
Posted by Aidan, Wednesday, 25 January 2017 1:51:33 PM
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Bazz,

I believe that this is the second time that poor, old, confused Aidan has blamed you for something I said. Hope you don't blame me!
Posted by ttbn, Wednesday, 25 January 2017 5:02:21 PM
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My apologies to Bazz. I'll try to be more careful in future.
Posted by Aidan, Wednesday, 25 January 2017 6:16:57 PM
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Aidan,

Firstly,

Statistically, it would be impossible for one player to benefit from withholding generation, as the cream is on the top, so collusion would be the only mechanism for them to profit from withholding generation. If you have any proof then spit it out.

Secondly'
on average nuclear power generation is cheaper than renewables. Germany is one point, France is another. France is producing power far cheaper than Germany, Denmark or Spain, the three renewables champions.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Wednesday, 25 January 2017 6:34:58 PM
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Aidan,

On some models, including the Statesman, the rere mudguards are held in place by two spring clips at the sides, on rough roads (as are found in Australia) these can let go, the guard is then held only by the plastic rere 'bumper' which as the guard hits the road, twists and cracks.
The guard itself isn't in real good condition either!!

Then there is the headlining in Commodores etc, which eventually comes loose because the glue has given up the ghost and the lining starts to sag.
There are people who specialize in replacing Holden head linings.
Posted by Is Mise, Thursday, 26 January 2017 9:51:05 AM
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Shadow,
"Statistically, it would be impossible for one player to benefit from withholding generation, as the cream is on the top"
If you think something's statistically impossible, post a statistical explanation rather than a metaphor which proves nothing.

Statistically there's much more to gain from holding out for a better price than there is to lose from passing up a marginally profitable opportunity.
Posted by Aidan, Friday, 27 January 2017 11:36:03 PM
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Killarney,

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/01/organizer-dc-womens-march-trump-pictured-flashing-isis-sign/

Organizer For DC Women’s March, Linda Sarsour Is Pro Sharia Law with Ties To Hamas... And as we all know Sharia law is all about women's rights.

These fruit cakes were handing out US flags to be worn as Hijabs.

Admittedly these idiots were a tiny minority, but were considered better than Trump.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Saturday, 28 January 2017 4:40:46 AM
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Aidan,

As the supply of power is bid in 5 or 10min supply chunks by all competitors (with graded pricing), holding out just means that your competitor gets the power at a slightly higher price and you lose out. It is impossible to rig the system without collusion, which can spotted a mile out.

Read this and tell me how one supplier can rig the market:

http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/1234_aemo2.pdf

Every supplier is free to bid or hold out, and to determine their own prices. The system they all use is based on models determined to get the maximum revenue and is based on their costs. I look forward to your theory showing how holding out benefits a bidder.

Remember the fixed costs in running a plant are huge, and holding out not only misses out on the profit, but on covering the fixed costs.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Saturday, 28 January 2017 5:09:24 AM
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Shadow,

It may be impossible to RIG the system without collusion, but it's easy to GAME the system, which often has a similar result.

Holding out sacrifices a the certainty of a small profit for a chance of a much bigger profit. Since there's much more to gain than there is to lose, all fossil fuelled generators are likely to use this strategy. Whether or not there are fixed costs, makes no difference; it's the most lucrative strategy.

Regarding nuclear power, average prices are only applicable for average conditions. What's important is the best technology for specific conditions, not the average.
Posted by Aidan, Sunday, 29 January 2017 8:45:12 PM
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I see one of the generators had a big payment due to buy CO2 credits
from some place but as the penalty for not buying them was less, they
just waited for the penalty.

This really upset the greenie bureaucrats.
It is about time the whole electricity system was reorganised.
When major generators go out of business because intermittent
generators get priority access. The renewables should only get access
if they can guarantee delivery.

As it stands at the moment any very hot days after 31st March
WILL mean widespread loadshedding in Victoria, NSW & Sth Aus.
In practise barring accidents that means next December or January.
It is just year 1 and 2 maths. If you can do addition & subtraction
you can see that it is inevitable.

I suggest a course in primary school arithmetic for politicians.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 30 January 2017 8:33:53 AM
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Aidan,

What nonsense. The system was designed specifically to be impossible to game by de linking any financial reward from one time segment to another. If you have a method to game the system there would be hundreds of mathematicians interested in how you do it especially given the $trillions governed by this system world wide every year. I am interested in this stroke of genius you have to reveal, however, I bet that this is just hot air.

Bazz,

There was a paper produced by the CSIRO on just this eventuality more than a decade ago.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Monday, 30 January 2017 11:01:34 AM
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Shadow -
" The system was designed specifically to be impossible to game by de linking any financial reward from one time segment to another"
And YOU accuse ME of posting nonsense!!

The system was gamed from when it was first privatised, as generation companies had so much market share that they didn't need to actively collude to be able to manipulate the price. Changes were made to REDUCE their ability to game the system: a maximum price was introduced and generation companies were encouraged to get into the electricity retail business. That alleviated the problem, but did not solve it: the market is still not very competitive. More renewables have made it more competitive, but only when the wind's blowing and the sun's shining.

You don't need hundreds of mathematicians to tell you that the assumption that the market is always efficient isn't always correct.
Posted by Aidan, Monday, 30 January 2017 12:31:43 PM
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Aidan,

You have no clue. There have been no substantive allegations of gaming the system, and the maximum price is set so high that it is in essence pointless.

Put up or ...
Posted by Shadow Minister, Monday, 30 January 2017 6:45:06 PM
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Shadow

If you're able to watch yesterdays SA ABC news before it disappears (this evening) then please watch the stuff about electricity (near the start). It's at http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/abc-news-sa/NN1705S035S00#

If that ABC report isn't enough or you can't get to it in time, you could also try http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/aug/11/electricity-price-spikes-caused-by-energy-companies-gaming-the-system-report-finds

Gaming the system is legal and ubiquitous, so you may not hear substantive allegations of it if you don't look for them. You may not have heard substantive allegations of workers taking tea breaks either. Do you think that's statistically impossible too?
Posted by Aidan, Saturday, 11 February 2017 10:19:42 AM
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Aidan,

I listened to the ABC report, and noted the AEMO stating the difficulty in predicting the wind and solar output. => Renewables.

As for the guardian article It is pure bunkum written by greenies with zero knowledge of the bidding system.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Saturday, 11 February 2017 5:20:28 PM
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Shadow,

Are you sure that's what they said? It seems highly implausible to me! We're very good at forecasting when the wind is blowing and we knew there wouldn't be much of it at any time that day. And of course we know when the sun will set.

What AEMO couldn't forecast accurately was demand.

AEMO also appears to be negligent (telling Pelican Point not to start its generators) but I'm sure there will be further investigation of that.

As for the Guardian article, ITYF it was written by journalists, and based on a report from a research institute at the University of Melbourne. So is it the journalists you're so blithely dismissing? Or the academics? Or both? Or just anyone who disagrees with you?
Posted by Aidan, Sunday, 12 February 2017 5:56:25 PM
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Aidan,

I listened to your link and reported what I heard, generation from wind was lower than expected just as the demand was higher.

Note that at lower wind speeds, the power available for generation is proportional to the wind speed cubed. ie. the power available when the wind is 13 km/h is 220% of 10 km/h, and with losses included is 300% more. So a tiny change in wind speed means a relatively large change in generating capacity. Given the above, and the 6hr lead time before starting Pelican point, accurate forecasts are very difficult. Starting up PP for only a few hours standby would be the most expensive power on the network. Notably Wetherill and his cronies have 20/20 hindsight.

The network was running exactly according to the rules and forecasting at their disposal. If the government is happy to change the rules to have more standby available, then they will pay more on average for power.

The "Melbourne research institute" consists of 5 people incl a secretary, and 4 others, none of which have any experience in power generation. The article claim that a tiny diesel gen power station with peak capacity of 50MW is gaming a 3000MW network is laughable.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Monday, 13 February 2017 8:53:37 AM
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